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New New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern enters Government with broad support

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors during October 2-October 15, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
In mid-October support for the newly elected Labour/NZ First/Greens coalition was 48.5%, ahead of the outgoing National/Act NZ Government on 46.5%, with minor parties outside Parliament attracting the remaining 5% of support.

This Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll was taken before NZ First Leader Winston Peters decided to back Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern to form a new Government last week with the support of the Greens.

  • Support for Labour/Greens is at 42% down marginally from their election result of 43.2% while coalition partners New Zealand First are on 6.5%, down 0.7% from their election performance;

  • Support for the outgoing National is at 46%, up slightly from their election result of 44.5% while their right-wing colleagues Act NZ are stuck on 0.5%, unchanged from their election result;

  • Of the parties outside Parliament it was new party ‘The Opportunities Party’ (TOP) which attracted the most support at the election (2.4%) without winning a seat and support for TOP is now at 2% while support for the Maori Party is at 1.5%, up slightly from their election result (1.2%).


Final Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll predicted swing to Labour and victory for ‘Jacindamania’

The final Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll of the campaign titled: ‘NZ Election on a knife edge but Labour favoured’ predicted a tight result with Labour favoured to form Government over the incumbent National-led coalition.

We suggested the expected result was due to the surge in support for Labour under new Leader Jacinda Ardern, the drop in support for National since the 2014 Election and also her election commitments to tackle housing issues by building more houses, removing unfair tax advantages for speculators and cutting New Zealand’s net annual immigration to 30,000.

We also said that ‘the narrow gap between the major parties means the final outcome of the election will be decided by the second string parties – and it is here that Labour has a decisive edge’ – and indeed it was the Labour policies outlined above that swung the decision of NZ First Leader Winston Peters to embrace change and install Jacinda Ardern as Prime Minister.

Roy Morgan predicted a potential coalition of Labour/Greens/Maori Party would hold 62 seats in Parliament compared to 58 seats for the National-led Opposition. As it turned out the Maori Party failed to hold their two seats in Parliament which instead went to Labour and the combination of Labour/Greens/NZ First will govern with a majority of 63 seats compared to the National-Act NZ opposition which holds 57 seats.


Government Confidence Rating down in October during period of Election uncertainty

Not surprisingly Government Confidence decreased during October as uncertainty about who New Zealand First Leader would choose to back as the new Government lingered.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell 6pts to 131pts in October with 58.5% of NZ electors (down 3.5% from September) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 27.5% of NZ electors (up 2.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.


Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research, says Jacinda Ardern comes to power with a mandate to address the issues of Housing affordability, Homelessness, Child poverty and the Gap between the rich and poor she successfully campaigned on:

“New Zealand finally has a certified result from last month’s inconclusive Election with Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern today becoming New Zealand’s youngest ever Prime Minister at the head of a three-pronged coalition agreement between Labour-NZ First and the Greens replacing the four-party National-led Government.

“Labour’s narrow election victory was built on its policies that skilfully prioritised dealing with the issues continually reflected in several Roy Morgan – Most Important Problems Facing NZ releases in the run up to the election.

“Roy Morgan showed that the issues of the Homeless & Homelessness, Housing affordability & Housing shortages, Poverty, Inequality and the gap between rich and poor were clearly the biggest issues for a majority of New Zealand electors over the past 12 months and it was these concerns that were tackled head-on by Jacinda Ardern during her campaign.

“New Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern provided a firm commitment to lower New Zealand’s record annual net immigration, remove the unfair tax advantages for housing speculators, build at least 10,000 new houses and improve education outcomes for New Zealand’s youth and at the same time drastically reduce the country’s record rates of child poverty.

“To her credit Ardern has allocated to herself the new portfolio of ‘Child Poverty Reduction’ and already announced foreigners will be barred from purchasing existing New Zealand residential property as a first step towards reducing the problems that soaring house prices have created.

“It was Ardern’s commitments to lead the country in a new direction by making these issues the centrepiece of a potential Labour-led Government that ultimately led New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters to pick Labour to lead the Government rather than National.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 894 electors during October 2-15, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.



For further information:

Contact

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Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0