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2.3m Australians now under-employed or unemployed

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 555,541 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – October 2017 and includes 4,131 face-to-face interviews in October 2017.
In October 1.226 million Australians were unemployed (9.5% of the workforce); an increase of 38,000 (up 0.3%) on a year ago. A further 1.108 million Australians (8.5% of the workforce) are now under-employed and looking for work or looking for more work, a fall of 158,000 (1.4%) in a year.

  • 2.334 million Australians (18% of the workforce) were unemployed or under-employed in October with the good news being this marked the first year-over-year drop in the overall figure since July this year;

  • 11,767,000 Australians were employed in October – an increase of 104,000 over the past year (this represents an average of almost 8,700 jobs added per month);

  • The increase in employment over the past year was driven by an increase in full-time employment which rose 120,000 to 7,714,000 while part-time employment was largely unchanged at 4,053,000 (down 16,000);

  • Roy Morgan real unemployment figures of 9.5% for October are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2017 (5.5%).

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – October 2017. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says employment growth has moderated in the latter half of 2017:

“Although employment growth in Australia has continued throughout 2017, today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates for October confirm a definite moderation in employment growth in recent months.

“Year-over-year employment growth in Australia during the first six months of the year averaged an impressive 411,000 new jobs, however this employment growth has slowed in each month since June and during the last four months has averaged year-over-year growth of only 155,000 jobs.

“Unfortunately for those Australians looking for work, or looking for more work, the brisk employment growth earlier in 2017 failed to make a dent in the over 2 million Australians unemployed or under-employed. In October now 2.3 million (18.0% of the workforce) Australians are unemployed – 1.2 million (9.5%); or under-employed – 1.1 million (8.5%).

“Despite the slow-down in new jobs, over the last 12 months the Australian economy added 120,000 full-time jobs equal to 10,000 full-time jobs per month whereas part-time employment contracted by about 1,000 jobs per month. AT the same time more Australians began looking for work resulting in an increase in the workforce of 142,000 in the last 12 months.

“It should be recalled that October marked the closure of the Australian automotive manufacturing industry with Toyota manufacturing its final car in Melbourne on October 6 and Holden closing its Adelaide manufacturing facilities two weeks later on October 20.

“In addition to the two prominent car manufacturers there are considerable flow-on employment effects to several parts manufacturers and suppliers that will have a significant impact particularly on the employment markets in South Australia and Victoria."

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 555,541 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – October 2017 and includes 4,131 face-to-face interviews in October 2017.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2016

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2016

2,496

19.1

1,362

10.4

639

723

1,134

8.7

Apr-Jun 2016

2,322

18.1

1,317

10.2

637

680

1,005

7.8

Jul-Sep 2016

2,296

17.8

1,266

9.8

574

692

1,030

8.0

Oct-Dec 2016

2,446

18.9

1,191

9.2

635

556

1,255

9.7

2017

Jan-Mar 2017

2,377

17.9

1,261

9.5

591

670

1,116

8.4

Apr-Jun 2017

2,525

19.0

1,234

9.3

607

627

1,291

9.7

Jul-Sep 2017

2,508

19.1

1,254

9.6

598

656

1,254

9.5

Months

September 2016

2,103

16.2

1,101

8.5

532

569

1,002

7.7

October 2016

2,454

19.1

1,188

9.2

626

562

1,266

9.9

November 2016

2,299

17.6

1,199

9.2

629

570

1,100

8.4

December 2016

2,584

20.0

1,186

9.2

650

536

1,398

10.8

January 2017

2,402

17.9

1,295

9.7

634

661

1,107

8.2

February 2017

2,390

17.9

1,253

9.4

576

677

1,137

8.5

March 2017

2,340

17.7

1,236

9.3

563

673

1,104

8.4

April 2017

2,307

17.6

1,217

9.3

612

605

1,090

8.3

May 2017

2,622

20.0

1,284

9.8

659

625

1,338

10.2

June 2017

2,645

19.6

1,200

8.9

550

650

1,445

10.7

July 2017

2,462

18.8

1,236

9.4

568

668

1,226

9.4

August 2017

2,565

19.7

1,324

10.2

639

685

1,241

9.5

September 2017

2,498

18.9

 1,202

9.1

586 616  1,296

9.8

October 2017 2,334 18.0 1,226 9.5 658 568 1,108 8.5

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2017)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2017)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - September Quarter 2017 - 9.6%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2