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Indonesian Consumer Confidence highest in Bali, Sulawesi & Maluku Islands

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,124 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of November 2017.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 0.5pts to 154.3 in November 2017 to its highest in three years since November 2014 (161.4). Consumer Confidence is now 5.4pts higher than a year ago in November 2016 (148.9) and a large 19.9pts above the long-run average (2005-2017) of 134.4.

The rise in Consumer Confidence was driven by more confidence about respondents personal financial situations slightly offset by less confidence about buying major house household items.

Now 40% (up 4ppts) of Indonesians said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago compared to 9% (down 1ppt) that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A large majority, 69% (up 1ppt), of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year  compared to just 4% (down 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In regard to the Indonesian economy now 87% (unchanged) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months (the equal highest for this indicator for well over two years since February 2015) and just 13% (down 1ppt) say we’ll have ‘bad times’ financially (the lowest for this indicator for well over two years since February 2015).

And looking at the longer-term, 92% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and only 8% (up 1ppt) expect ‘bad times’ economically.

Over half of Indonesians, 57% (down 2ppts), say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 40% (up 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence - November 2017 - 154.3

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ November 2017 (n=2,124).


Consumer Confidence highest in East Indonesia – Sulawesi & Bali, Lesser Sunda, Maluku & Papua

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by region reveals a consistent trend with Consumer Confidence higher in Eastern Regions of Indonesia compared to the Western Regions – although Consumer Confidence is very high throughout Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia December 2017 – 115.6) and New Zealand (December 2017 – 121.8).

Indonesian Consumer Confidence is highest on the island of Sulawesi at 180.0 in November, unchanged from a year ago and more than 10pts higher than any other region, and next highest is the island chains that surround Sulawesi – Bali, Lesser Sunda, Maluku and Papua at 166.8 – up a significant 14.4pts from a year ago. Together these two regions constitute approximately the eastern half of Indonesia geographical terms to the East of the main island of Java.

Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence - November 2017 - Graph of Regions

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ November 2016 (n=2,152) & November 2017 (n=2,124).

The centrally located regions of Indonesia including the provinces of Kalimantan with a Consumer Confidence rating of 156.9, East Java with a Consumer Confidence of 159.8 and Central Java with a Consumer Confidence of 155.3 also have higher Consumer Confidence than their western counterparts.

Despite all three provinces lifting their Consumer Confidence over the last 12 months it is the three western-most Indonesian regions with the lowest Consumer Confidence – headlined by the region surrounding the capital Jakarta and West Java with a Consumer Confidence of 148.3 along with the neighbouring South Sumatra (154.9) and Northern Sumatra (143.1).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Research Indonesia, says:

“With President Jokowi reaffirming his grip on power, corruption under scrutiny and the economy showing signs of progress in new sectors like tourism and e-commerce, consumer confidence is up once again. Consumers are growing more confident to open their wallets again.

“The high level of Consumer Confidence in Indonesia is a powerful indicator that backs up Indonesia’s high annual GDP growth of 5% - one of the best rates of growth of any G20 major economy.

“All five Consumer Confidence indicators moved in a positive direction in October and the indicators showing the greatest strength relate to the performance of the Indonesian economy in both the short and long terms. A stunningly high 93% of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years which suggests strongly that Indonesia will be enjoying robust economic growth for many years to come."

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,124 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of November 2017.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0