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South Australians have divided loyalties ahead of SA Election

Finding No. 7458 – This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 521 South Australians on January 11-12, 2018. Electors were asked “At the next State Election who will receive your first preference?”

A special Roy Morgan SMS Survey taken on January 11-12, 2018 shows a three way contest between the Liberals on 32% support, new party SA Best on 28.5% and the governing ALP on just 23.5% support for the votes of South Australian electors heading to a State Election in exactly two months on Saturday March 17, 2018.

Support for the major parties has declined substantially since the 2014 South Australian Election and largely gone to former Australian Senator Nick Xenophon’s new party SA Best – however, most of this support had already left the major parties when we last interviewed South Australians about their State political preferences just over a year ago in October 2016.

Support for the Liberals is down 4.5% to 32% since October 2016 and most of this support has gone to new party Australian Conservatives headed by former South Australian Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi now on 3% (up 3%).

Support for the governing ALP has dropped 1% to only 23.5% and the Government now trails new party SA Best on 28.5% support – up 9% since October 2016. Support for the Greens has fallen to 9% (down 2%) and support for Independents and Others has fallen to just 4% (down 4.5%) which includes support for other parties represented in the South Australian Parliament such as Family First, Advance SA and Dignity for Disability.


SA State Voting Intention (January 2018)

SA Election

March 15, 2014

SMS Morgan Poll
October 1-2, 2016

SMS Morgan Poll
Jan 11-12, 2018

% Change since
SA Election

 

%

%

%

%

Liberals

45

36.5

32

-13.0

SA Best

-

19.5

28.5

+28.5

ALP

36

24.5

23.5

-12.5

Greens

8.5

11

9

+0.5

Australian Conservatives

-

-

3

+3.0

Other

10.5

8.5

4

-6.5

TOTAL

100

100

100


Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, says:

“The South Australian electorate is divided about who to vote for at the State Election in March. Since the 2014 State Election ALP support is down 12.5% to 23.5% and Liberal support is down 13% to 32% with the drop in support for the main parties going mainly to new party SA Best now at 28.5% although the 3% support for new party Australian Conservatives has also contributed to the decline in Liberal support.

“The three-way split in support between the Liberals, SA Best and the ALP means preference deals struck by the three leading parties will play a key role in deciding the results in many lower house seats. A majority of 24 seats in the 47 seat lower house is required for a governing majority in South Australia.

“Because of the uncertainty surrounding new party SA Best and the flow of the new party’s preferences, it is difficult to predict a two-party preferred result, and in any case a two-party preferred result holds no relevance in a likely multi-party lower house  in which the third ranking party is likely to be in a position of ‘King-maker’ as we saw in the recent New Zealand Election.”

Finding No. 7458 – This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 521 South Australians on January 11-12, 2018. Electors were asked “At the next State Election who will receive your first preference?”

Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.
www.HelixPersonas.com.au


For further information
:

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093