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Indonesian Consumer Confidence jumps most in Northern Sumatra

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,146 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of December 2017.
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 1.1pts to 155.4 in December 2017 to its highest in more than three years (since November 2014 when Consumer Confidence was 161.4). Consumer Confidence is now 6.6pts higher than a year ago in December 2016 (148.8) and a large 20.9pts above the long-run average (2005-2017) of 134.5.

The rise in Consumer Confidence was driven by more confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy over the next year and next five years.

Now 89% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months (a new all-time record high for this indicator) and only 11% (down 2ppts) say we’ll have ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term a new all-time record high for this indicator of 95% (up 3ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 5% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ economically.

Now 39% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians said their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago compared to just 9% (unchanged) that said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A large majority, 69% (unchanged), of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year  compared to just 4% (unchanged) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Over half of Indonesians, 55% (down 2ppts), say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 41% (up 1ppt) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Consumer Confidence jumps most in Northern Sumatra & Kalimantan

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by region reveals a consistent trend with Consumer Confidence higher in Eastern Regions of Indonesia compared to the 

Western Regions – although the largest increase in Consumer Confidence over the past year has come in Indonesia’s western-most region of Northern Sumatra.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence is highest on the island of Sulawesi at 180.1 in December, up 1.7pts from a year ago and nearly 10pts higher than any other region, and next highest is the resort island of Bali at 172.0 – up an impressive 8.1pts from a year ago. Together these two regions are the more eastern regions of Indonesia in geographical terms.

However, although Indonesian Consumer Confidence is highest in the east, the biggest improvers over the past year have been more westerly regions led by 

Northern Sumatra which has increased 17.5pts over the past year to 148.8 and the northern regions of Kalimantan which has increased 12.4pts to 155.3 – now just below the national average of 155.4.

Analysing Consumer Confidence on Indonesia’s most populated island of Java reveals higher results in the eastern areas with Consumer Confidence in East Java at 166.2 in December, up 6.9pts from a year ago and just below neighbouring Bali, ahead of Central Java on 156.2 – and the only region to experience a decline over the past 12 months, down 1.9pts but still above the national average, and Jakarta & West Java on 148.3 up 6.4pts from a year ago.

Consumer Confidence is very high throughout Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia Jan. 27/28, 2018 – 120.9) and New Zealand (Jan. 2018 – 126.9).

Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"The confident Indonesian continues to march forward, with Indonesian Consumer Confidence up for a third month in a row to 155.4 and at remarkable highs when compared to regional neighbours Australia (120.9) and New Zealand (126.9).

“Driving Consumer Confidence higher to end 2017 was the booming expectations about the Indonesian economy with 89% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expecting ‘good times’ financially during the next year and even higher, 95% (up 3ppts) expecting ‘good times’ financially during the next five years both at new all-time record highs.

“Consumer Confidence in Indonesia has been noticeably higher than in the two Australasian economies for several years now and is highest in the islands of Sulawesi at a remarkable 180.1 and the holiday island of Bali just behind on 172.0.

“However, it is Consumer Confidence in the northern island of Kalimantan at 155.3 – up 12.3pts over the past year and in Northern Sumatra at 148.8 – up a significant 17.5pts over the past year that have been the star performers in 2017. It needs to be remembered that Consumer Confidence in Northern Sumatra in December 2016 was hit by a powerful earthquake centred on the province of Aceh so a significant improvement in the area as it recovers from the earthquake would be expected.

“In a broader sense the improvement in Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence in the closing months of 2017 demonstrates the ongoing strength in the Indonesian economy which has been amongst the fastest growing economies in the G20 for several years now and sends a clear signal and invitation to investors to venture beyond the traditional markets and consider Indonesia."

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 2,146 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of December 2017.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2