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Indonesians and New Zealanders more confident than Australians

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia averaging interviews with 4,000 Australians aged 14+ per month, Roy Morgan Single Source Indonesia averaging interviews with 2,000 Indonesians aged 14+ per month and Roy Morgan Single Source New Zealand averaging interviews with 1,000 New Zealanders aged 14+ per month between 2008-2018.
In early 2018 Consumer Confidence in Indonesia and New Zealand is higher than mutual neighbour Australia. The chart below of Consumer Confidence across the last decade shows Indonesia consistently higher than Australia and NZ since 2010.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence ended 2017 at 155.4 and is almost 30pts above the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating of 126.9 in January and more than 40pts higher than this week’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating of 115.3.


Indonesia

Indonesian Consumer Confidence soared following the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09 and has been consistently higher than either Australia or NZ since late 2010.

In fact, Indonesian Consumer Confidence hasn’t dipped below 140 since April 2012 (139.6) and it reached a high of 161.4 in August and November 2014 when current President Joko Widodo was first elected (July 2014) and inaugurated three months later (October 2014).


New Zealand

New Zealand Consumer Confidence has also been consistently higher than ‘across the ditch’ in Australia in the last four years. Since September 2013 New Zealand Consumer Confidence has been higher than in Australia in 50 out of 52 months and more than 10pts higher for two long periods in particular: November 2013 – June 2015 and November 2016 – present.

New Zealand Consumer Confidence reached a recent high of 129.9 in September 2017 as New Zealanders went to the polls. The New Zealand Election was extremely close with Labour Party Leader Jacinda Ardern successfully negotiating a coalition agreement with NZ First and the Greens to become New Zealand’s youngest ever Prime Minister later in October.


Australian v New Zealand v Indonesian Consumer Confidence (2008-2018)

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence - Australia v New Zealand v IndonesiaSource: Roy Morgan Single Source Australia averaging interviews with 4,000 Australians aged 14+ per month, Roy Morgan Single Source Indonesia averaging interviews with 2,000 Indonesians aged 14+ per month and Roy Morgan Single Source New Zealand averaging interviews with 1,000 New Zealanders aged 14+ per month between 2008-2018.


Australia

In contrast, Australian Consumer Confidence has lagged its neighbours for much of the past half-decade after an initially strong recovery from the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 with the impact of the ‘Mining Boom’ peaking in 2010-2011.

Consumer Confidence in neighbours Australia and New Zealand closely tracked each other through 2010-2012 and most of 2013 before diverging wildly in the last two months of 2013 following the election of the Abbott Government in September 2013 – Australians becoming less confident and New Zealanders becoming more confident.

In fact, since the Abbott Government was elected Consumer Confidence in Australia has been above that of New Zealand for only two out of the last 52 months – August 2015 (Australian CC 112.9 cf. NZ CC 109.8) and August 2016 (Australian CC 118.0 cf. NZ CC 117.7).


Comparing Indonesian, New Zealand & Australian Consumer Confidence by the Questions

Analysing the three series more closely reveals Indonesia has much higher confidence surrounding personal financial situations (Questions 1 & 2) and the prospects for the local economy (Questions 3 & 4) than either Australia or New Zealand.

Adding the differences on these four indicators shows Indonesia has a positive differential of +263 compared to New Zealand’s +93 and Australia’s positive differential of +41. These figures alone equate to a Consumer Confidence Rating of +52.6 for Indonesia, +18.6 for New Zealand and +8.2 for Australia.

However, when it comes time to consider whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy’ major household items (Question 5) it is New Zealanders (+47) and Australians (+36) that are far more confident spending money on significant items than their Indonesian counterparts (+14).

Indonesian
Consumer Confidence

ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence

Latest Result

December 2017

January 2018

Feb 17/18, 2018

Question 1: Would you say you and your family are better off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?”

Question 1 difference

+30

+16

+4

Question 2: This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better off financially or worse off than you are now?”

Question 2 difference

+65

+30

+24

Question 3: Thinking of economic conditions in Australia/Indonesia/New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?”

Question 3 difference

+78

+22

+7

Question 4: Looking ahead, would you say it is more likely, that in Australia/Indonesia/NZ as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so – or we’ll have bad times – or some good and some bad?”

Question 4 difference

+90

+25

+6

Question 5: Generally, do you think now is a good time, or bad time, for people to buy major household items?”

Question 5 difference

+14

+47

+36

Overall Latest
Consumer Confidence

155.4pts

126.9pts

115.3pts

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.


Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says Consumer Confidence in all three countries has performed well in recent years with Indonesia a clear standout since 2010 while New Zealand has outperformed Australia since late 2013:

“Consumer Confidence in Indonesia has far out-performed close neighbours Australia and New Zealand over most of the past decade after all three countries took a significant hit due to the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09.

“Indonesian Consumer Confidence has consistently been above an impressive 140 since mid-2012 and peaked at a record high 161.4 in the months surrounding the election and inauguration of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) as Indonesia’s President in mid-late 2014. President Widodo faces re-election in just over a year’s time in mid-2019.

“The positive impact elections can have on Consumer Confidence is borne out by the experience across the Tasman surrounding recent elections – so long as the economy is growing strongly.

“New Zealand’s Consumer Confidence achieved record highs in 2014 as former Prime Minister John Key faced re-election and the recent high of 129.9 occurred in September 2017 as New Zealanders voted in a closely fought election.

“Labour Party Leader Jacinda Ardern successfully negotiated a coalition agreement following the election and Ardern now enjoys a New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating of 126.9 more than 10pts higher than her counterpart in Canberra.

“Several recent highs in Australian Consumer Confidence have related closely to the Australian election cycle, or leadership changes at the top. Australian Consumer Confidence briefly jumped above 124 in both September and October 2013 following the election of the L-NP Government, and spiked by nearly 10% in a single week following Malcolm Turnbull’s ascent to the Prime Ministership in September 2015.

“Early in 2018 Consumer Confidence had improved to a more than four year high of 123.5 (January 13/14, 2018). However, recent uncertainty surrounding global share- markets, including the Australian All Ordinaries Index, has undermined Consumer Confidence in recent weeks – now at 115.3 in mid-February.

“These figures illustrate the importance of political leadership and certainty to the health of a nation’s economy. The apparent ‘certainty’ provided by a fresh election or in Turnbull’s case, a leadership transition, invariably results in a short-term boost for Consumer Confidence. However, if there is a degree of lingering political uncertainty this can negatively impact Consumer Confidence very quickly and directly.”


The ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating is conducted on a weekly basis with a representative sample of about 1,000 Australians aged 14+ around Australia.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating is conducted on a monthly basis with a representative sample of about 1,000 New Zealanders aged 14+ around NZ.

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on an average of 2,000 face-to-face interviews conducted throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia. Women & men aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the months between January 2008 – December 2017.


For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s latest Consumer Confidence data for Australia, Indonesia or New Zealand, please contact:

Roy Morgan Research - Enquiries

Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309

askroymorgan.@roymorgan.com