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Federal Election too close to call as L-NP holds big lead in Queensland

Finding No. 7543 – This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends, March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,417 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 7% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
The latest Morgan Poll shows the Federal support for the L-NP up 3% to 49% in a fortnight narrowly behind the ALP down 3% to 51% on a two-party preferred basis.

The Morgan Poll follows the SA Election won by the Liberal Party and controversial comments by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten regarding the proposed Adani coalmine in Queensland and was conducted over the last two weekends of March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018 with 1,417 electors.

Primary support for the L-NP increased to 40%, up 4% in a fortnight and was led by a jump in support for the National Party up 3% to 5.5.%.

Primary support for the ALP dropped 1% to 35%, support for the Greens dropped 1.5% to 12% and support for the Nick Xenophon Team was down 1% to 0.5% after its disappointing performance in the South Australian Election at which State counterpart SA Best failed to win a seat.

Support for One Nation was up 0.5% to 3.5% and support for Independents/Others was down 1% to 9%. Of all electors survey a relatively high 7% were undecided.


Analysis by States

The ALP now holds a two-party preferred lead in New South Wales: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%, Victoria: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% and Tasmania: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45% while the L-NP holds a two-party preferred lead in Queensland: L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5% and South Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% and the parties are dead even in Western Australia.


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 2.5pts to 105.5 this week with 43.5% (up 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38% (down 2%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research says:

“Poll watchers will have noticed Morgan Polls have not been publicised regularly. Morgan Polls are still conducted weekly, and results are available for subscription.

“The Morgan Poll has been published this week to restore balance to the political agenda – which is ‘today’ dominated by Newspoll and the call by many for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to resign.

“Two points are vital:

    • Newspoll is not infallible - the accuracy of Newspoll was shown up by the South Australian Election at which Newspoll were out by 4% predicting a Liberal Party primary vote of 34% when the Liberals actually received 38% of the primary vote. Newspoll also predicted an ALP primary vote of 31%, ALP actually received 31.8%; SA Best primary vote of 17%, SA Best actually received 14.2%, Greens primary vote of 8%, Greens actually received 6.7%; Others primary vote of 10%, Others actually received 8.3%.

    • The Federal vote can change. The latest Morgan Poll shows the two major parties neck and neck (ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%) and if an election were held today the outcome would be too close to call.

“The L-NP has significantly cut the long-standing ALP two-party preferred lead following the Liberal Party victory in the South Australian Election and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s comments opposing the proposed Adani coalmine in Queensland.

“The ALP on 51% (down 3% in a fortnight), now leads the L-NP on 49% (up 3%), on a two-party preferred basis.

“New South Australian Premier Steven Marshall led the Liberal Party to its first victory at a  South Australian election since 1998 on March 17. In addition Shorten’s hardline comments against the Adani coalmine have cost ALP significant support in the key state of Queensland.

“In Queensland the L-NP on 59.5% now leads the ALP 40.5% on a two-party preferred basis. The L-NP is even further ahead in the key area of regional Queensland.

“In other good news for the Turnbull Government Roy Morgan Government Confidence has increased to a 2018 high of 105.5pts with 43.5% of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38% (down 2%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

To learn more about Roy Morgan’s media or political research or tomorrow’s Spotlight on Politics presentation, call (+61) (3) 92244 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Finding No. 7543 – This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face  interviewing over the last two weekends, March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,417 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 7% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

Federal Voting Intention Summary – House of Reps (%)

L-NP

ALP

The

Greens

One Nation

Nick Xenophon Team (NXT)

Ind./

Others

RECENT FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS

%

%

%

%

%

%

Election, July 2, 2016

42.1 (4.8)

35.0

9.8

1.3

1.9

9.9

MORGAN POLL

L-NP

ALP

The Greens

One

Nation

Nick Xenophon
Team (NXT)

Ind./
Others

March 3/4 & 10/11, 2018

36 (2.5)

36

13.5

3

1.5

10

March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018

40 (5.5)

35

12

3.5

0.5

9

Two-Party Preferred Vote (%)

RECENT FEDERAL ELECTION RESULTS

L-NP

ALP

%

%

Election, July 2, 2016

50.3

49.7

MORGAN POLL

L-NP

ALP

March 3/4 & 10/11, 2018

46

54

March 17/18 & 24/25, 2018

49

51


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