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Federal Election still too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%

Finding No. 7559 – This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face interviewing over the last two weekends, March 24/25 & March 31/ April 1, 2018 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,477 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 6% (down 1%) did not name a party.

The latest Morgan Poll shows Federal support for the ALP unchanged at 51% narrowly ahead of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis. The Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two weekends of March 24/25 & March 31/April 1, 2018 with 1,477 electors.

Primary support for the L-NP is at 38.5%, down 1.5% from the previous fortnight just ahead of the ALP on 37.5%, up 2%. Support for the Greens dropped 1% to 11% while support for One Nation dropped 0.5% to 3%. Support for Independents/ Others was up 1% to 10% with 6% of electors undecided.

Analysis by States

The ALP now holds a two-party preferred lead in New South Wales: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46% and Western Australia: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% while the L-NP holds a two-party preferred lead in South Australia: L-NP 59% cf. ALP 41%, Tasmania: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5% and Queensland: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% and the two parties are dead even in Victoria: ALP 50% cf. L-NP 50%.


Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 2.5pts to 103 this week with 42.5% (down 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.


Analysis of Federal Voting Intentions by Personal Income of respondent

Special analysis of the Morgan Poll by the personal income of the respondent covered today by Adam Creighton in The Australian – ‘Ideas matter in politics’ – Friday April 6, 2018 reveals that there are plenty of Australians at all income levels who vote for both major parties and there is in fact nothing between the parties on a two-party preferred basis amongst Australians earning over $100,000 per year.


Two-Party Preferred Voting intention by Personal Income of respondent

Australian Electors

$0K - $30K

$30K - $60K

$60K - $100K

$100K+

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

51

52

53.5

46

50

L-NP

49

48

46.5

54

50

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

Analysis of two-party preferred voting intention at different income levels shows the ALP holds a narrow edge for Australians earning between $0 to $30,000 with the ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% and this lead increases for Australians on a slightly higher wage of $30,000 to $60,000 with the ALP on 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%.

Interestingly Australians earning between $60,000 to $100,000 are the strongest supporters of the L-NP giving the coalition a two-party preferred result of 54% compared to the ALP on 46%. However, this edge disappears when considering the highest earning Australians with those earning over $100,000 unable to split the two major parties on a two-party preferred basis: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%.

Primary voting intentions by income are covered below.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research says:

“Last week’s Morgan Poll revealed the two major parties are in fact much closer on a two-party preferred basis than many may realise with the ALP on 51% only narrowly ahead of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis.

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows little has changed over the past week and if an election were called today it would be too close to call with the performance of the respective parties in the campaign the key to determining who would win.

“Adam Creighton of The Australian has today published an important article - 'Ideas matter in politics - Friday April 6, 2018' highlighting that despite the stereotypical view that ‘rich people vote for the L-NP’ and ‘poor people vote for the ALP’ there are in fact many many Australians that do not conform to this simplistic view of voting intentions and the gap between the two parties is narrow at different income levels – and for those earning over $100,000 per year the two parties are evenly preferred: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%.

“It’s true, the ALP does garner wider support at lower income levels, but the lead is much narrower than many would think. For those earning under $30,000 per year the ALP on 52% just leads the L-NP on 48% and the ALP actually performs better with those earning between $30,000 to $60,000 with the ALP on 53.5% cf. L-NP on 46.5%.

“In fact the best income strata for the coalition is those earning around the average income in Australia and just above that mark with people earning $60,000 to $100,000 preferring the L-NP on 54% compared to the ALP on 46%.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

To learn more about Roy Morgan’s media or political research or tomorrow’s Spotlight on Politics presentation, call (+61) (3) 9224 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Finding No. 7559 – This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face  interviewing over the last two weekends, March 24/25 & March 31/ April 1, 2018 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,477 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 6% (down 1%) did not name a party.


Primary Voting intention by Personal Income of respondent

Australian Electors

$0K - $30K

$30K - $60K

$60K - $100K

$100K+

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37.5

39.5

38

31

35.5

L-NP

38.5

37.5

36

41.5

41.5

Greens

11

10.5

12.5

13.5

10.5

One Nation

3

3

2.5

3

3

Ind./Others

10

9.5

11

11

9.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100


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