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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence falls to 114.1

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,093 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend August 18/19, 2018.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell a sharp 3.5% last week, its third straight weekly fall. Confidence declined across all subindices, with particularly sharp falls in views towards future financial and economic conditions.

  • Households’ views towards current financial conditions fell 1.3% last week, following a 1.0% fall in the week prior. Sentiment towards future financial conditions plummeted (-7.6%) to its lowest level in a year.
  • Consumers’ continued to be less optimistic about current economic conditions – their assessment declined another 0.8% last week, the third consecutive weekly fall. Views towards future economic conditions tumbled 5.3% last week, following a modest decline (-0.3%) in the previous week.
  • The ‘time to buy a household item’ sub-index slipped another 1.5% to 129.3 (vs 134.0 long term average). Four-week moving average inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.3%.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:


“The sharp deterioration in confidence this week is quite disappointing given the great news about the fall in the unemployment rate to a six-year low. The decline in confidence may reflect the impact of the messy political debate locally and the associated slump in support for the current Turnbull government, as revealed in the recent Fairfax-Ipsos poll. The sharp fall in future (rather than current) conditions provides some evidence of this. The considerable media focus on the impact of the drought may also have affected sentiment. Despite the recent declines; overall consumer confidence is still above its long-term average.

"It is, however, important to note that households’ views towards economic conditions have been trending down since late June. In four week moving average terms, sentiment around future conditions has fallen below its long term average (112.5 vs 113.9). Still, views towards current conditions remain above their long term average for the moment and, as a result, so do aggregate economic conditions.”


Click here to download the latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence PDF.

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2