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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence steady in May, up 0.5pts to 121

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was steady at 121 in May, sitting slightly above its historical average. Both the current and future conditions indexes were little changed.
SUMMARY

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was steady at 121 in May, sitting slightly above its historical average.

  • Both the current and future conditions indexes were little changed.

  • Households are feeling pretty good due to a strong labour market and still-low interest rates, but are not gung-ho. In our view the household saving rate needs to lift from here, so middle-of-the-road confidence is not a bad thing.
Consumers are feeling neither exuberant nor alarmed. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index was steady at 121 in May. This is just above the average of the series since its inception in 2004. On a seasonally adjusted basis the index rose 1 point to 122.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating - May 2018 - 121.0

The Current Conditions Index rose 2 points to 124.6 in May, while the Future Conditions Index was broadly unchanged at 118.5. Both are trending more or less sideways.

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation bounced back 4 points to a net 13% feeling financially better off than a year ago.

  • A net 27% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 2 points.

  • A net 36% say it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 1 point from April. This remains at a strong level and should support durables spending.

  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook eased a further point to +12%, around its December low. The five-year outlook also dipped 1 point from +18% to +17%, the lowest since May 2017.

  • Confidence fell 5 points in Auckland – this is now the least confident region, with the rest of the North Island also relatively subdued. South Island confidence rebounded strongly, and Wellington confidence is high.

  • National house price expectations dipped from 4.1% to 3.7% and remain strongest amongst Wellingtonians (4.3%). Inflation expectations were all but unchanged at 3.9%.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was steady after dipping last month. Job security is good, higher wage growth looks likely, and the housing market is chugging along. Perceptions of current conditions are strong, but there is a degree of wariness about the future – which we don’t view as a bad thing, given households’ need to rebuild saving buffers.

Our confidence composite gauge (which combines business and consumer sentiment, and so covers both the production and spending sides of the economy) is suggesting around 2% GDP growth. High household debt and capacity constraints are perhaps making themselves felt, but still-low interest rates, population growth, the strong terms of trade and fiscal stimulus are providing support.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating - May 2018 - 121.0

Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - May 2018.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.