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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence eases to 116.2

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,120 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend September 8/9, 2018.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence eased 1.3% last week, after two straight weekly rises. Improvements in sentiment toward future finances and current economic conditions were not strong enough to offset falls in the remaining subindices.

  • Households’ perception of current financial conditions fell 4.8% last week, more than reversing a cumulative 1.7% gain over the previous two weeks. Meanwhile, sentiment towards future financial conditions rose 2.1%, its third straight weekly increase.
  • Encouragingly, households’ assessment of current economic conditions bounced 2.1%, entirely reversing the prior week’s fall. Consumers were less optimistic about future economic conditions, however. Their assessment fell 3.5% to 111.5 (versus a long term average of 113.9).
  • The ‘time to buy a household item’ subindex fell 2.3% last week, only partially reversing the sharp 5.2% rise in the prior week. Four-week moving average inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.3%, though the weekly value dipped to 4.1%.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“Confidence was unable to hold on to all of the gains over the previous two weeks, despite a stronger-than-expected GDP report. After appearing to shrug off the news about higher interest rates from one major bank the previous week, the decision to raise mortgage rates by another two majors appears to have dampened sentiment. A sharp fall in households’ assessment of current finances last week certainly points toward this.

"Though a rise of 10–15bps is relatively small, the current environment of falling house prices and sluggish wage growth may have households more concerned than they might have been in more ‘normal’ times. Still, the fall in confidence is not large and overall sentiment is still above average.

"We expect a solid jobs report on Thursday, which should provide some support for confidence in the near term. That said, geopolitical developments continue to evolve and have the potential to weigh on the outlook of consumers.”






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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2