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Indonesian Consumer Confidence soars in September to 160.4

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ September 2018 (n=1,285).
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up 2.2pts to 160.4 in September 2018 and is now at its highest since November 2014 (161.4). Consumer Confidence is now 10pts higher than a year ago in September 2017 (150.4) and 24.7pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 135.7.

The strong year-on-year increase in Indonesian Consumer Confidence has been driven by large increases in the capital region of Jakarta & West Java, East Java, Bali and Kalimantan while Consumer Confidence fell slightly in Central Java & Yogyarkata and fell in Sulawesi although most interviewing was completed before the devastating earthquake and tsunami hit the island late in September.

The increase in September from a month ago was driven by record confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy over the next 12 months and next five years.

In September now 93% (up 4ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months (a new record high figure for this indicator) and only 7% (down 3ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially (a new record low figure for this indicator).

And looking at the longer-term, now 96% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years (a new record high figure for this indicator) and 4% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’ (a new record low figure for this indicator).

In September now 61% (up 2ppts) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 36% (down 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Now 40% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 10% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

In addition a slightly reduced majority of 70% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 3% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.



Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ September 2018 (n=1,285).


Consumer Confidence up most in Jakarta & West Java and Kalimantan year over year


Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by region shows consumer confidence increasing across the majority of the country over the past year led by Jakarta & West Java, Kalimantan and Bali although there were a few exceptions with Consumer Confidence down in Central Java & Yogyakarta and Sulawesi compared to this time a year ago.

Consumer Confidence for those in Jakarta & West Java increased by 16.9pts from a year ago to 158.6 in September 2018 and by an even more impressive 26.3pts to 159.2 in Kalimantan although Consumer Confidence in each of these regions remains marginally below the national figure of 160.4 in September.

Consumer Confidence was also up strongly in Bali by 13.3pts to 162.8 and up 11.2pts to 166.7 in East Java over the past year with both now clearly above the national average.

In addition Consumer Confidence increased in Northern Sumatra by 9.5pts to 158.0 and was up by 3.3pts in Southern Sumatra to 153.9 from a year ago. However, this small increase in South Sumatra means the region now has the lowest Consumer Confidence of any region in Indonesia.

In contrast to these increases Consumer Confidence was down slightly in Central Java & Yogyakarta by 1pt to 157.3 and down significantly by 7.8pts to 176.8 in Sulawesi. However, despite the drop in Sulawesi, the island continues to have the highest Consumer Confidence of any region in Indonesia.


Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Region: September 2017 cf. September 2018


Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Sept. 2017 (n=2,135) & Sept. 2018 (n=1,285).



 Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:


"Indonesian Consumer Confidence has increased 2.2pts to 160.4 in September and is now a significant 10pts higher than a year ago in September 2018 (150.4). Indonesian Consumer Confidence has now increased to its highest level for nearly four years and this is the biggest year-over-year increase in Indonesian Consumer Confidence for four years since September 2014.

“Driving Consumer Confidence higher in September were record highs in how Indonesians regard the performance of the Indonesian economy. Now 93% (up 4ppts) of Indonesians expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next 12 months and 96% (up 2ppts) expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years – both new record highs for these important indicators.

“Analysing the strong increase in Indonesian Consumer Confidence over the last year shows the increase is spread across most of the country. The increase in Consumer Confidence is led by an increase of 16.9pts to 158.6 over the last year in Jakarta & West Java and by an increase of 26.3pts to 159.2 in Kalimantan. There were also big increases in East Java, by 11.2pts to 166.7 and by 13.3pts to 162.8 over the last year.

“In contrast, the only regions to decline over the past year were Central Java & Yokyakarta which was down 1pt to 157.3 from a year ago and a drop of 7.8pts to 176.8 in Sulawesi. Sulawesi was hit by a devastating earthquake and tsunami in late September although most interviewing was completed before the natural disaster hit the island which is home to nearly 20 million people.

“Looking forward there are concerns global market volatility will impact Indonesia. The strengthening US Dollar has caused significant capital outflows from emerging markets and a weakening in local currencies. Roy Morgan will continue to monitor these macroeconomic trends and any effects they have on Indonesian Consumer Confidence over coming months.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,285 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in September throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia October 14/15, 2018 – 119.5) and New Zealand (September 2018 – 117.6) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0


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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2