Unemployment unchanged at 9.4% in October

Australian employment has grown solidly over the past year with over 400,000 jobs created with a higher increase in part-time than full-time employment.

The latest data for the Roy Morgan employment series for October shows:

• The workforce which comprises employed and unemployed Australians is now 13,459,000, up 466,000 on a year ago;
  
  
• 12,194,000 Australians were employed in October, up 427,000 over the past year;
  
  
• The increase in employment was driven by large increases in part-time employment which was up 254,000 to 4,307,000 and full-time employment which increased 173,000 to a high 7,887,000;
  
  
• 1,265,000 Australians (9.4% of the workforce) were unemployed in October, an increase of 39,000 on a year ago but with the unemployment rate down 0.1% due to the growth in the workforce;
  
  
• In addition 1,242,000 Australians (9.2% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, an increase of 134,000 in a year (up 0.7%);
  
  
• In total 2,507,000 Australians (18.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in October, an increase of 173,000 in a year (up 0.6%);
  
  
• Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 9.4% for October is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for September 2018 of 5.0%.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – October 2018. Average monthly interviews 4,000.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

“The Australian economy has grown strongly over the last year with over 400,000 jobs created at a rate of just over 35,000 new jobs per month. Employment growth was led by a strong increase in part-time employment (+254,000) while there were also many new full-time jobs (+173,000) created.

“However, in addition to the new jobs created a further 39,000 Australians entering the workforce were unable to find a job and became unemployed. Now 1.3 million Australians are unemployed in October equivalent to 9.4% of the workforce. Because of the overall growth in the workforce over the last year the unemployment rate is actually down 0.1% from a year ago.

“A further 1.2 million Australians (9.2% of the workforce) are under-employed meaning a total of 2.5 million Australians (18.6% of the workforce) are now unemployed and looking for work or employed part-time and looking for more work (under-employed).

“The strong growth in part-time employment directly impacts on under-employment which is up over 130,000 from 1.1 million a year ago in October 2017 and the rate of under-employment is now 0.7% higher than a year ago. As we’ve noted previously the high level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia isn’t because jobs aren’t being created, it’s because the workforce continues to grow at a faster rate than the growth in employment.

“The persistent high level of under-employment in the Australian economy is likely to emerge as a key election issue over the next few months. Over 1 million Australians have been under-employed for over two years now stretching back to September 2016 and although these workers are often forgotten in mainstream commentary they shape as an important voting block looking for new policies that create the chance for them to find meaningful full-time employment.

“Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s trip to Queensland this week to visit a state that holds many LNP marginal seats is important in the context of introducing himself to the voters but as I explained on Stan Grant’s Matter of Fact on Wednesday night (video here) Morrison needs to do more than get to know the electorate.

“Despite the diverse nature of the Queensland electorate the big factors heading towards a Federal Election next year in Queensland, and elsewhere around Australia, are economic issues. Queenslanders want lower prices for energy, insurance and other costs and above all a strong economy and policies that address the continuing issues of unemployment and under-employment.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 604,596 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – October 2018 and includes 4,113 face-to-face interviews in October 2018.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

For further information:

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2018)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2018)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2018)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2018)

ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.