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ALP Government set to be re-elected with increased majority

This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today (Friday November 23, 2018) with a State-wide cross-section of 1,469 Victorian electors aged 18+.

Today’s special SMS Morgan Poll on the eve of the Victorian election shows Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is set to be re-elected with an increased majority of the vote following a record high turnout of Victorian voting before election day.

Over 40% of Victorian electors say they have already cast a vote for tomorrow’s Victorian Election and the voting patterns of Victorians who have already voted favours the ALP Government on a two-party preferred basis ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%. Support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis increases even further for those Victorian electors who say they will vote on Saturday: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%.

Victorian electors were asked: “Have you already voted in tomorrow’s Victorian State Election, will you vote tomorrow or are you not voting?”

This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today (Friday November 23, 2018) with a State-wide cross-section of 1,469 Victorian electors aged 18+.


Who do early voters support?

For Victorian electors who have already voted support for the ALP is on 40%, L-NP on 35%, Greens on 12% and Independents/Others also on 13%. After distributing preferences of supporters of the Greens, Independents and Others this translates into a two-party preferred result favouring the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.

Those who say they will vote on election day are slightly less likely to vote for the major parties than those who’ve already voted. 39% of Victorian electors say they will vote for the ALP and 32% say they will vote for the L-NP. Support amongst those voting on election day is higher for the Greens at 13% and support for Independents/Others increases to 16%.

The higher votes for the Greens for those voting on election day, and also the better performance of the ALP relative to the L-NP, increases the likely two-party preferred result in favour of the ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%.

2014 Victorian State Election

Already voted

Will vote

Difference for those already voted cf. those who will vote

Primary vote

%

%

%

%

ALP

38.1

40

39

+1

L-NP

42.0

35

32

+3

Greens

11.5

12

13

-1

Independents/Others

9.4

13

16

-3

Total

100

100

100

Two-Party preferred

ALP

52.0

53

55

-2

L-NP

48.0

47

45

+2

Total

100

100

100


Early voting – Who does it?

Analysis by Voting Preference

Analysing by voting preference shows L-NP voters (53%) are more likely to have already voted than ALP voters (42%), Greens voters (36%) or Independent/Others voters (42%) and the only supporters more likely to have already voted than will vote tomorrow on election day. Clear majorities of both Greens voters (59%) and ALP voters (57%) say they will vote on election day:

  • L-NP voters: Already voted (53%) cf. will vote (44%) cf. not voting (3%);
  • ALP voters: Already voted (42%) cf. will vote (57%) cf. not voting (1%);
  • Greens voters: Already voted (36%) cf. will vote (59%) cf. not voting (5%);
  • Independent/ Others voters: Already voted (42%) cf. will vote (49%) cf. not voting (9%).


Analysis by Gender

Analysis by gender shows more women (47%) than men (42%) have already voted with a majority of men (54%) saying they will vote on Saturday compared to 49% of women:

  • Men: Already voted (42%) cf. will vote (54%) cf. not voting (4%);
  • Women: Already voted (47%) cf. will vote (49%) cf. not voting (4%).


Analysis by Age

Analysing by age shows it is younger Victorians aged 18-24 (58%) and older Victorians aged 65+ (56%) who are the most likely to have already voted while the next most likely to have already voted are those aged 50-64 (44%). Just over a third of Victorians aged 25-34 (37%) and those aged 35-49 (35%) have already voted:

  • 18-24yr olds: Already voted (58%) cf. will vote (42%) cf. not voting (0%);
  • 25-34yr olds: Already voted (37%) cf. will vote (51%) cf. not voting (12%);
  • 35-49yr olds: Already voted (35%) cf. will vote (64%) cf. not voting (1%);
  • 50-64yr olds: Already voted (44%) cf. will vote (52%) cf. not voting (4%);
  • 65+yr olds: Already voted (56%) cf. will vote (42%) cf. not voting (2%).


Analysis by Region

Analysing by region shows Melburnians (45%) are slightly more likely to have already voted than Country Victorians (43%) although small majorities of both plan to vote on election day:

  • Melbourne: Already voted (45%) cf. will vote (51%) cf. not voting (4%);
  • Country Victoria: Already voted (43%) cf. will vote (54%) cf. not voting (3%);


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan, says:

“Today’s special SMS Morgan Poll shows Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is set to lead his ALP Government to victory at tomorrow’s Victorian State election with a swing to the first-term Government set to increase the Government’s majority at the expense of the L-NP Opposition.

“The ALP has a comfortable two-party preferred lead amongst Victorian electors who’ve already voted: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% while those planning to vote on election day favour the ALP even more heavily: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%.

“The result of today’s SMS Morgan Poll confirms the results of other polls released late this week including a YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald-Sun (ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%) and a UComm/ReachTEL poll for The Age (ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%) which both show the ALP increasing their two-party preferred support since the 2014 Victorian State Election.

“Today’s special SMS Morgan Poll shows 44% of Victorian electors say they have already voted in tomorrow’s election and just over half (52%) say the will vote on election day. According to figures released by the Victorian Electoral Commission earlier this week over 1.4 million Victorians had already voted – equivalent to over 41% of formal votes in the 2014 Election.

“The trend towards voting early has clearly continued from past elections and if this trend continues in future elections it is likely that more than half of Victorian electors will cast their vote before election day in the 2022 Victorian State Election.

“The other take-out from this year’s Victorian Election is also likely to be a continuing trend towards voting for minor parties including the Greens, other parties and Independents. Support for the non-major parties has increased from 11.1% in 1999 to 20.9% in 2014 and looks set to increase again this year.”

Finding No. 7814 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,469 Victorian electors today, Friday November 23, 2018.


Question – Have you already voted
?

Victorian electors were asked: “Have you already voted in tomorrow’s Victorian State Election, will you vote tomorrow or are you not voting?”

This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today (Friday November 23, 2018) with a State-wide cross-section of 1,469 Victorian electors aged 18+.


Analysis by Age & Gender

Total

Gender

Age

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Already voted

44

42

47

58

37

35

44

56

Will vote

52

54

49

42

51

64

52

42

Not voting

4

4

4

0

12

1

4

2

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by Voting Preference & Region

Total

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other

Can’t say

Melbourne

Country

Victoria

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Already voted

44

53

42

36

42

39

45

43

Will vote

52

44

57

59

49

52

51

54

Not voting

4

3

1

5

9

9

4

3

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For comments or more information about Roy Morgan data, please contact:

Contact

Office

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093