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Indonesian Consumer Confidence down from record high to 159.1

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ November 2018 (n=1,290).
Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence is down 3.9pts to 159.1 in November 2018. Consumer Confidence is now 4.8pts higher than a year ago in November 2017 (154.3) and 23.1pts above the long-run average (2005-2018) of 136.0.

Despite a monthly fall from an all time high Indonesian Consumer Confidence has increased significantly from a year ago driven by increases amongst Indonesians in full-time employment and especially workers in Skilled and Unskilled positions as well as Indonesians not in paid employment.

The fall in November from a month ago was driven by falling confidence about the performance of the Indonesian economy over the next 12 months and also fewer people saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items.

Now 43% (unchanged) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 7% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

A decreasing majority of 70% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 3% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In November, 89% (down 4ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 11% (up 4ppts) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 94% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and just 5% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’.

In November now 61% (down 4ppts) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 35% (up 4ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ November 2018 (n=1,290).


Consumer Confidence up for full-time workers, those out of work and lower skilled workers

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by employment status and occupation shows Consumer Confidence has increased for Indonesians in full-time employment and those in Skilled/Unskilled employment which comprise the majority of jobs in Indonesia.

In contrast, Consumer Confidence is down slightly over the last year for Indonesians in White Collar employment or those employed as Professionals and Managers. Consumer Confidence is also down for Indonesians in part-time employment.

Consumer Confidence for Indonesians employed full-time increased by 6.4pts to 162.2 since November last year and is now nearly 20pts higher than for those Indonesians employed part-time, which is down 5.7pts to 143.2 over the same time period.

Consumer Confidence for Indonesians not in paid work, which is equal to about a third of Indonesia’s population, continues to closely track the overall measure of Consumer Confidence for Indonesia. Now at 157.8, up 4.7pts from a year ago, and just below the country figure of 159.1.

In terms of the type of occupation it is Indonesians working in Skilled/Unskilled positions who have experienced the biggest increase in Consumer Confidence over the last year with Consumer Confidence soaring 9.2pts to 159.0.

Consumer Confidence for Indonesians in a White Collar occupation is virtually unchanged at 166.9, down only 0.9pts on a year ago and still higher than for other types of work. It is Indonesians working in Professional/Managerial roles who have regressed over the last year with Consumer Confidence for this group down 2pts to 158.0 since November 2017.


Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Employment & Occupation: Nov. 2017 cf. Nov. 2018

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ Nov. 2017 (n=2,124) & Nov. 2018 (n=1,290).


Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:

"For once Indonesians haven’t broken another record in November with Consumer Confidence falling from a record high in October to settle down 3.9pts at 159.1. Despite the fall Consumer Confidence is still 4.8pts higher than a year ago.

“The fall is the most significant for the index since a fall of 8.3pts in September 2015 more than three years ago and the largest ever fall in the month of November stretching back over a decade.

“Despite the fall Indonesian Consumer Confidence heads towards the end of the year around 40pts higher than in southern neighbours Australia (117.8 on December 15/16, 2018) and New Zealand (121.9 in December).

“Analysing the increase in Consumer Confidence on a year ago shows it is Indonesians in full-time employment and those working in Skilled/Unskilled occupations who have driven the increase most significantly over the last year.

“The strong increase in Consumer Confidence for Indonesia’s working class, who comprise the majority of Indonesians in employment, is a powerful indicator in favour of incumbent President Joko Widodo as he seeks re-election for a second term in 2019. Jokowi draws a great deal of his support from lower middle-class Indonesians who tend to be his biggest supporters."

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,290 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in November throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia December 15/16, 2018 – 117.8) and New Zealand (December 2018 – 121.9) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400


Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0





About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2