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Far more Australians expect a troubled than a peaceful 2019

Source: Roy Morgan telephone, SMS and web surveys in Australia 1982-2018 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question in mid-December 2018: “Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one, or more of the same as 2018?”
A special Roy Morgan web survey taken in mid-December shows 38% of Australians think 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 while only 10% expect 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’. However, most Australians say 2019 will be either ‘the same’ (47%), and 5% don’t know.

Although more Australians believe 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018, this is well down from the record high reached at the end of 2002 in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq War when 76% of Australians said 2003 would be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2002. In the same year a record low 2% expected 2003 to be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2002.

Australians are less concerned about 2019 than their counterparts in New Zealand. Over two-fifths of New Zealanders (42%) believe 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 while a tenth of New Zealanders (10%) expect 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018. See here for more details on the New Zealand results.

This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Next Year – Troubled, peaceful or the same? (Australia)

Source: Roy Morgan telephone, SMS and web surveys in Australia 1982-2018 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question in mid-December 2018: “Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one, or more of the same as 2018?”

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same

Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Australia’s men (40%) are more concerned that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 than women (35%) while slightly more women (11%) than men (10%) say 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018.

It turns out expectations that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 is heavily correlated to the age of a respondent. Only 32% of 18-24yr old respondents expect 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018, however this rises with each subsequent age group including 35% of 25-34yr olds, 37% of 35-49yr olds and 43% of those aged 50 years and older.

Australians aged 50 years and older are the least hopeful about prospects for peace this year. Only 5% of Australians in this age group say 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018.
  

Total

Australia

Gender

Age

Total

NZ

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Troubled

38

40

35

32

35

37

43

42

Same

47

46

48

45

46

47

49

42

Peaceful

10

10

11

12

13

13

5

10

Don’t know

5

4

6

11

6

3

3

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Analysis by States & Regions – Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same


Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Analysing by State shows respondents in all States are expecting 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than a ‘more peaceful year’ compared to 2018 although many respondents expect 2019 will be ‘the same’.

It is respondents in Tasmania (44%) and New South Wales (43%) that are the most concerned that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ compared to around a third of respondents in the other four States.

There are also more optimists in Tasmania than any other State with 16% expecting 2019 to be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018 ahead of 13% of Victorian respondents.

A majority of respondents in South Australia (65%), Queensland (55%), Victoria (54%) and Western Australia (53%) believe 2019 will be ‘the same’ as 2019 or ‘don’t know’.

Respondents in the Country (39%) are marginally more concerned about 2019 being a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 compared to those in the City (37%).

States

City/ Country

Total

Australia

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

City

Country

Total

NZ

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Troubled

38

43

33

35

37

33

44

37

39

42

Same

47

43

48

52

46

61

36

47

47

42

Peaceful

10

10

13

10

10

2

16

12

8

10

Don’t know

5

4

6

3

7

4

4

4

6

6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, says:

“Although Australians are optimistic that 2019 will be a ‘better’ year than 2018, far more Australians are also convinced this year will be a ‘more troubled year’ than last year. Nearly two-fifths of Australians (38%) expect a ‘more troubled year’ in 2019 compared to only 10% that expect 2019 to be a ‘more peaceful year’.

“However, one shouldn't be surprised by this result, as the historical trend for this question over the last 35 years shows respondents in Australia are (so far at least) always convinced the next year will be a ‘more troubled year’ rather than a ‘more peaceful year’.

“As such, pessimism about this year shouldn't be a surprise, but it is well down on a record high 76% in late 2002 during the run-up to the Iraq War in early 2003. That pessimism was clearly well grounded in the contemporary reality of the time.

“A trend which perhaps reflects the ‘innocence of youth’ is that Australians tend to grow more worried about the future being ‘troubled’ as they age. Only 32% of 18-24yr olds expect 2019 to be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018, but this rises in each age group with a high 43% of Australians aged 50+ believing that this year will be a ‘more troubled year’ than the last.

“Most strikingly, only 5% of Australians aged 50+ years old are convinced 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018 – less than half the results for all three younger age groups.”


Finding No. 7839 – This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,028 Australians on December 13-14, 2018. They were asked “Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one or more of the same as 2018?”


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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2