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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 121.7 in January

Perceptions of current conditions were unchanged, while the future conditions index fell 1 point.

Consumer confidence was unchanged in January, slightly above average.

  • Perceptions of current conditions were unchanged, while the future conditions index fell 1 point.
  • The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item was also unchanged.
Consumer confidence was about as exciting as a pet rock in January, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index unchanged at 122: 7 points off its October low, but also 6 points off its March 2018 high. The overall index sits a smidgen above the historical average. The Current Conditions Index was unchanged at 124, while the Future Conditions Index eased 1 point to 120.

Turning to the detail:
  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation lifted 1 point to a net 12% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
  • A net 29% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 1 point.
  • A net 36% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, flat.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 2 points to a net 12% expecting conditions to improve. The five-year outlook lifted 2 points to +20%.
  • South Island ex-Canterbury lifted the most (up 8 points to 125) but Wellington remains the most confident region (134). Confidence in Canterbury fell 9 points to reclaim the wooden spoon at 115.
  • House price inflation expectations eased from 2.9% to 2.7%. They remain weakest in Auckland (1.8%) and Canterbury (1.9%).
  • Inflation expectations fell 0.7%pts to 3.5%, unwinding December’s spike. The impact of petrol prices is clear in this data.

Consumers are feeling pretty good about things, with some concerns about the overall economic outlook but slightly above-average confidence regarding their own situations. The proportion thinking it is a good time to buy a major household item remains consistent with ongoing spending, though the data on retail spending growth will be affected by slowing population growth.

Our confidence composite gauge combines business expectations and intentions with overall consumer sentiment to capture both the demand and supply side of the economy. It continues to suggest momentum in the economy has slowed markedly (figure 2), but it has found a floor as business sentiment has bounced somewhat. We see growth of around 2½% for the next couple of years, with consumption supported by the strong labour market but capped by weaker population growth, high household debt and a flat-to-weaker Auckland housing market.

Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - January 2018.

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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