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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 0.9pts to 120.8 in February

Consumer confidence was pretty steady in February. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 1 point to 121, around its historical average. Households are feeling better about the here and now, but marginally warier about the future.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence fell 1 point in February and sits around average levels.

  • Perceptions of current conditions lifted 2 points, while the future conditions index fell 3 points.

  • The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item lifted 3 points.
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was pretty steady in February. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 1 point to 121, around its historical average. Households are feeling better about the here and now, but marginally warier about the future. The Current Conditions Index lifted 2 points to 126, while the Future Conditions Index eased 3 points to 117.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence - February 2019 - 120.8

Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation lifted 2 points to a net 14% feeling financially better off than a year ago.

  • A net 27% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 2 points.

  • A net 39% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, up 3 points.

  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 3 points to a net 9% expecting conditions to improve. The five-year outlook dropped 5 points to +15%.

  • Canterbury lifted the most (up 8 points to 123) but the rest of the South Island pipped it as the most confident region at 126.

  • House price inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.7%. They remain weakest in Auckland (1.9%).

  • Inflation expectations fell 0.1% pts to 3.4%.

Consumers are feeling relatively serene. There is perhaps a touch of wariness regarding the overall economic outlook, but slightly above-average confidence regarding their personal situations. The lift in the proportion thinking it is a good time to buy a major household item to healthy levels suggests that small declines in Auckland house prices are not having much impact on willingness to spend.

Our confidence composite gauge combines business expectations and intentions with overall consumer sentiment to capture both the demand and supply side of the economy and give a better indicator for growth than either series alone. It continues to suggest momentum in the economy has slowed considerably (figure 2), but the composite has stopped declining. We see economic growth averaging around 2½% over the next couple of years, with already-high household debt and declining (but still positive) population growth limiting consumption’s contribution.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating - February 2019 - 120.8


Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - February 2018.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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