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Jokowi’s lead over Prabowo slips slightly in February

Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s lead over Prabowo Subianto has slipped slightly in February but Jokowi is still on track for a clear victory at next month’s Presidential Election.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s lead over Prabowo Subianto has slipped slightly in February but Jokowi is still on track for a clear victory at next month’s Presidential Election.

President Jokowi has the support of 57% of Indonesian electors in February, down 1% from January and still well ahead of opponent Prabowo Subianto up 1% to 43% according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on the Indonesian Presidency conducted in February 2019 with 1,101 Indonesian electors aged 17+.

The strong support for President Joko Widodo translates into strong support for his party the PDI-P. The PDI-P has the support of 42.5% (up 2% since January) of Indonesians for the concurrent Indonesian legislative elections in April. Support for Gerindra, the main opposition party of Presidential opponent Prabowo Subianto was down 4% to 21% in February.

The remaining 36.5% of support is spread between a multitude of parties contesting the elections.

Jokowi has strong rural support while Prabowo has big lead in Jakarta and West Java

Analysing the Roy Morgan Indonesian Presidential Poll by location shows Jokowi leads in most areas of Indonesia and leads strongly in rural Indonesia. In rural areas the preference is clearly in favour of President Jokowi (60.5%) cf. Prabowo (39.5%).

Urban areas are far more competitive and based on Prabowo’s strong performance in the capital of Jakarta and surrounding areas in West Java including Banten. However, even in Indonesia’s urban areas there is a narrow advantage for President Jokowi (54.5%) cf. Prabowo (45.5%).

Support for Jokowi is strongest in his home province of Central Java with President Jokowi capturing nearly three-quarters of support: Jokowi (74.5%) cf. Prabowo (25.5%). Support for the President is also very strong in the neighbouring provinces of East Java and Bali: Jokowi (73%) cf. Prabowo (27%).

Jokowi also enjoys strong support on the island of Sulawesi: Jokowi (63%) cf. Prabowo (37%).

Support for challenger Prabowo Subianto is strongest in his home province of West Java and the capital Jakarta where Prabowo (58%) leads Jokowi (42%). Support for Prabowo in Jakarta, West Java and Banten has increased in February from a month ago.

The two Presidential candidates are hard to split on the island of Kalimantan with Prabowo (51.5%) enjoying a narrow advantage over Jokowi (48.5%) while Jokowi has a narrow advantage over Prabowo on the island of Sumatra. In the northern provinces of Sumatra it is Jokowi (51.5%) cf. Prabowo (48.5%) and in the southern provinces of Sumatra it is even closer with Jokowi (51%) cf. Prabowo (49%).

Women continue to show strong support for President Jokowi


Analysing by Gender shows Jokowi’s lead is strongest amongst women. Amongst women Jokowi (58%) is clearly favoured to Prabowo (42%). However, men also favour Jokowi but by a narrower margin: Jokowi (56.5%) cf. Prabowo (43.5%).

Support for Jokowi remains strongest amongst Indonesians aged 25-49


Analysing the support for each candidate by age shows Jokowi with strong leads amongst all age groups and is heaviest appeal is for those mid-aged Indonesians aged 25-49 years old. While Prabowo’s appeal is stronger among the youngest age group
  • 17-24yr olds: Jokowi (52%) cf. Prabowo (48%);
  • 25-34yr olds: Jokowi (60.5%) cf. Prabowo (39.5%);
  • 35-49yr olds: Jokowi (57.5%) cf. Prabowo (42.5%);
  • 50+yr olds: Jokowi (57%) cf. Prabowo (43%).

Legislature Voting Intention – February 2019

Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows Jokowi’s political party the PDI-P with support up 2% to 42.5% in February increasing their lead over Gerindra, the party of Presidential opponent Prabowo now with 21% support, down 4% in a month.

The PDI-P and Gerindra were the only parties that qualified to stand candidates in the Presidential Election due to the level of support the parties were able to gather in the Indonesian legislature. According to new Indonesian laws legislated in 2017 a minimum of 20% of the seats in the legislature are required to support the nomination of a Presidential candidate.

Supporting PDI-P candidate Jokowi are coalition partners Golkar 6% (up 0.5% since January), PPP 2% (up 1%), Hanura 0.5% (unchanged), NasDem 1% (down 0.5%) and PKB 5% (up 1.5%). Support for the PDI-P led coalition has now increased to 57.5%, up 4.5% since January.

Supporting Gerindra candidate Prabowo are coalition partners Demokrat 5% (down 1%), PKS 5% (unchanged) and PAN 5% (up 0.5%). Support for the Gerindra led coalition is now at 36%, down 4.5% since January.

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan says incumbent President Jokowi has maintained a strong lead as the preferred President of most Indonesians although his opponent Prabowo has increased his lead in the provinces of Jakarta & West Java:


“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian voting intentions at next month’s Presidential and legislative elections show incumbent President Jokowi is set to win re-election over his Presidential opponent Prabowo Subianto. Support for President Jokowi is now at 57%, down 1% on January, but still well ahead of opponent Prabowo up 1% to 43%.

“President Jokowi’s PDI-P led Majority Coalition is set to again win a majority of seats in the Indonesian legislative elections held the same day with support for the PDI-P led Majority Coalition has increased to 57%, up 4.5% on January while support for the Gerindra led Minority Coalition has slipped 4.5% to 36%.
“Jokowi’s support is strongest in rural Indonesia with Jokowi preferred by 60.5% of rural Indonesians compared to 39.5% that support Prabowo. Prabowo is more competitive in Indonesia’s urban areas supported by 45.5% of Indonesians in urban areas compared to 54.5% that support Jokowi.

“This support for Prabowo is strongest in Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta and the surrounding provinces in West Java and Banten with Prabowo preferred by 58% of Indonesian electors in the provinces surrounding Jakarta well ahead of Jokowi on 42%.

“Jokowi has maintained a strong lead in his home province of Central Java and Yogyakarta, East Java & Bali and the island of Sulawesi while the two Presidential candidates are virtually level on the islands of Kalimantan and Sumatra.

“Although support for Prabowo has increased in recent weeks with only four weeks to go before Indonesians head to the polls to vote in the Presidential and Legislative elections in mid-April the indications are that Indonesians will stick with Jokowi and award the President with a second term and his party with a continued majority in the legislature.”

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were being held today, for which party's candidate would you vote?" And for the Presidential poll "I am going to show you a list of candidates for President and Vice-President. Which one would you be most likely to vote for as President and Vice-President in the next election?”

Finding No. 7914 - This Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted in February 2019 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 1,101 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. Just over 3% of electors in both polls couldn’t say who they support.

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Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention

Presidential Candidates

Indonesian Presidential

Election – July 2014

December
2018

January

2019

February

2019

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

53

59.5

58

57

Prabowo Subianto

47

40.5

42

43

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Joko Widodo’s Vice-Presidential running mate is Prof. Dr. K.H. Ma’rul Amin. Prabowo Subianto’s Vice-Presidential running mate is Sandiaga Uno.

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Urban/Rural

Urban/Rural

Presidential
Candidates

Electors

Urban

Rural

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

57

54.5

60.5

Prabowo Subianto

43

45.5

39.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Province/ Island*

By Province/ Island*

Presidential
Candidates

Electors

*Jakarta
& West Java

East Java & Bali

Central Java & Yogyakarta

*S’thern Sumatra

*N’thern Sumatra

*Island of Sulawesi

*Island of Kalimantan

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

57

42

73

74.5

51

51.5

63

48.5

Prabowo Subianto

43

58

27

25.5

49

48.5

37

51.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Designations: Jakarta & West Java includes Banten; Southern Sumatra includes Southern Sumatra (Sumatera Selatan) and Lampung; Northern Sumatra includes Northern Sumatra (Sumatera Utara), West Sumatra (Sumatera Barat) and Riau. Island of Sulawesi includes Southern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Selatan) and Northern Sulawesi (Sulawesi Utara); Island of Kalimantan includes East Kalimantan (Kalimantan Timur), Southern Kalimantan (Kalimantan Selatan) and West Kalimantan (Kalimantan Barat).

Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Gender & Age

Gender

Age

Presidential Candidates

Electors

Male

Female

17-24

25-34

35-49

50+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Jokowi (Joko Widodo)

57

56.5

58

52

60.5

57.5

57

Prabowo Subianto

43

43.5

42

48

39.5

42.5

43

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention

Political Parties

Indonesian Legislative Election
April 2014

December

2018

January 2019

February
2019

%

%

%

%

PDI-P

19

40.5

40.5

42.5

Gerindra

12

21.5

25

21

Golkar

15

3

5.5

6

Demokrat

10

7

6

5

PKS

7

4.5

5

5

PAN

8

4.5

4.5

5

PKB

9

6.5

3.5

5

PPP

6

2

1

2

NasDem

7

1.5

1.5

1

Perindo

n/a

2

1

1

Garuda

n/a

1

1

1

Hanura

5

1

0.5

0.5

Others*

2

5

5

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

*Other parties polled less than 0.5% of the vote each and include PBB, PKPI, PSI Berkarya and Others.

Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention - Coalitions

Political Parties

Indonesian Legislative Election
April 2014

December

2018

January 2019

February 2019

%

%

%

%

PDI-P led Majority Coalition*

61

54.5

52.5

57

Gerindra led Minority Coalition*

37

37.5

40.5

36

Others*

2

8

7

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

*PDI-P led Majority Coalition also includes Golkar, PKB, NasDem, PPP and Hanura. Gerindra led Minority Coalition also includes Demokrat, PKS and PAN. Other parties include Perindo, Garuda, PBB, PKPI, PSI Berkarya and Others.
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Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2