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Holiday intention levels showing some weakening

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). October 2017 - December 2017, n=12,090. October 2018 - December 2018, n=12,566
Base: Australians 14+ intending to take a holiday in next 12 months
In December, 13.94 million Australians (67.6%) said they intend to take a holiday in the next 12 months, a drop of 250,000 or 1.8% from the same time 12 months ago. The decline in intentions was seen for both domestic and overseas destinations.

This is one of the major findings from the latest ‘Roy Morgan Leading Indicator Holiday Travel Intention, December 2018’ report. This report is based on data collected from Roy Morgan’s Single Source survey which involves in-depth interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 Australians consumers per annum in their homes. This latest data presented here is for the three months ended December 2018.

Domestic holiday intentions show biggest drop

The following chart shows that domestic holidays face the biggest drop in intentions, down 270,000 or 2.5%, compared to 20,000 or 0.9% down for overseas holidays. The current position is that 52.0% of Australians intend that their next holiday will be domestic (down from 54.3% 12 months ago) and 10.8% intend to take an overseas one (down from 11.1%).

It is worth noting that 1.01 million holiday intenders haven’t yet decided their likely holiday destination for the next 12 months.

Intention to take a holiday in next 12 months

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). October 2017 - December 2017, n=12,090.  October 2018 - December 2018, n=12,566 Base: Australians 14+ intending to take a holiday in next 12 months

Decline in both short and long holiday intentions

Short term holiday intentions (1 or 2 nights) for the next 12 months have declined to 54.6% of the population, from 58.7% a year ago, representing a drop of 630,000 or 5.3%. Long holiday intentions (3 or more nights) have declined from 53.3% to 51.2%, a drop of 230,000 or 2.1% over the last 12 months.

Intention to take a short and/or long holiday in next 12 months

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). October 2017 - December 2017, n=12,090.  October 2018 - December 2018, n=12,566 Base: Australians 14+ intending to take a holiday in next 12 months

Millennials and GenX, the big holiday makers

Nearly three quarters of Millennials (72.6%) or 3.54 million, intend to take a holiday in the next 12 months. They are closely followed by Gen X with 72.5% (3.47 million).

Baby Boomers represent the third biggest market with 3.04 million holiday intenders (66.3%) and Ge Z have 2.71 million (63.5%).

As would be expected, the least likely to be planning to take a holiday are the Pre-Boomers (aged 72 and over) with 50.6% or one million.

Intention to take a holiday in next 12 months by generations

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). January 2018 - December 2018, n=50,853 Base: Australians 14+ intending to take a holiday in next 12 months

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan says:

“Despite a slowdown in the number of Australians intending to take a holiday over the next 12 months, there remains a major market opportuning with nearly 14 million holiday intenders, a drop of only 1.8% from the same period last year. This is a modest decline given a struggling retail environment and a major slowdown in motor vehicle sales and new car intention levels that we have seen are down 6% over the same period. Travel obviously remains a high priority experience for many consumers.

“The travel industry, like other sectors of the economy, is now facing a number of real challenges that have the potential to negatively impact their market. These include concerns about the slowing economy, lack of wage growth, energy price escalation, declining home values, superannuation changes and political uncertainty with a potential change of government. These factors are producing a negative wealth effect which has the potential to make consumers less predisposed to spend on discretionary items like travel. 

“Holiday intentions are obviously closely related to socio economic status but this release has highlighted the need to understand the influences of other factors of which generational differences are only one.

“This release has only shown a small part of what we have been collecting over many years on a wide range of travel preferences across all major Australian and global destinations. Extensive profiling is available on the type of people that travel, the method of travel they prefer, length of stay, airlines used, sources of information, amount spent, activities of interest and much more. To find out what is available simply ask Roy Morgan.”

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