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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recovers after Federal Election result

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 993 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend May 18/19, 2019.

Confidence reversed the previous week’s loss. All the sub-indices were positive. The survey coincided with the election, so much of the gain likely reflects the impact of the surprise win by the Coalition.

  • Current financial conditions rose by 0.5%, while future financial conditions were up 1.2%.
  • Economic conditions, which were responsible for much of the previous week’s fall, were also in positive territory. Current economic conditions were up 3.8%, compared to a fall of 8.1% previously, while future economic conditions were up 0.9%.
  • The ‘time to buy a household item’ also rose significantly; it was up 4.1% to its highest level since the end of March. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations was down by 0.1 ppt to 4.1%. 

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“The surprise election result, which people surveyed on Sunday would have known, most likely had a significant impact on sentiment. After all, the tone of the domestic economic data released during the week prior to the survey (falling business conditions, modest wage gains and rising unemployment) would not have provided much of a boost to confidence. The move only reverses the prior week’s fall, however, so we won’t overplay it. Still, it leaves consumer sentiment above average.”



Click here to download the latest weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence PDF.

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2