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Federal Election 2019: ALP (52.5%) starts ahead of L-NP (47.5%) but 'wrong' to say Labor has election 'won'

Yesterday Prime Minister Scott Morrison called the Federal Election for May 18, and the last weekend's Roy Morgan 'face-to-face' poll showed the ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%) with a winning lead as official campaigning begins.
Yesterday Prime Minister Scott Morrison called the Federal Election for May 18, and the last weekend's Roy Morgan 'face-to-face' poll showed the ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%) with a winning lead as official campaigning begins. 

However, the example of the 1993 Liberal 'unloseable' Federal election showed that one mis-step can swing the result of the election, when Opposition Leader John Hewson 'stumbled' over the impact of the GST on birthday cakes and subsequently lost the election. 

Prime Minister Morrison's appeal to 'trust' in his re-election campaign is 'gutsy', but the real key is for leaders not to allow 'distrust' to attach to their campaigns and leadership. It is 'distrust' that really drives many electors' voting decisions. 
 
Of more concern for electors are the areas where they 'distrust' a party or leader. What are electors worried about? The ALP has significant 'distrust' issues with their relationship with the unions and the ALP's many potential changes to the tax system. For the L-NP the uncertainties about the change of leadership of the L-NP are still generating 'distrust', and the 'shenanigans' that big business - including financial institutions - have been engaging in are seen as a bigger problem driving 'distrust' in the L-NP than Labor. 

View the full 9 minute video with Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine on Sky News: Conroy & Kroger explaining the key drivers for next month's Federal Election at this link. [Click to view ‘Full video’]

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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2