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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 114.3

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,002 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend June 22/23, 2019.

Weekly consumer confidence was essentially unchanged last week, gaining just 0.1%. Within this stable headline result there was quite a bit of movement in the sub-indices. Those relating to personal financial conditions were stronger, while those looking at the economic outlook fell.

  • Current financial conditions rose by 4.7%, while future financial conditions gained 0.2%. Both financial condition sub-indices have been positive for two straight weeks.
  • Economic conditions were weak, with current economic conditions down 6.9% and future economic conditions falling 5%. Both the sub-indices are below their long-term averages.
  • The ‘Time to buy a major household item’ was up sharply, jumping by 6.1%. It has not been above its current level since July last year. The fourweek moving average for inflation expectations rose to 3.9%.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“Confidence was effectively unchanged last week, but the stability hides quite a lot of variance in the sub-indices. People were much more positive on their own financial circumstances, but unsure about the economic outlook. This may reflect the way lower interest rates are being perceived: positive at the individual level for many (though not all), but the fact that interest rates need to fall is possibly raising concerns about the economic fundamentals. The bounce in the ‘time to buy a major household item’ may be indicative of the signs of stability in the housing market emerging in other data such as auction clearance rates. The weekly reading of inflation expectations jumped by 0.3ppt to 4.3%. This took the four-week moving average to 3.9%.”


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Related Research Reports

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You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2