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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips to 115.8

This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,000 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over the weekend August 3/4, 2019.

After two straight weekly gains, consumer confidence fell by 2.3% last week. All the subindices were in the negative except ‘Future economic conditions’.

  • Current financial conditions were down by 4.3%, while future financial conditions fell 1.9%. Despite the fall, both the components are comfortably above their long-run average.
  • Economic conditions were mixed, with current economic conditions taking a big hit of 6.1% and more than reversing the prior week’s big jump, while future economic conditions gained 3.8%.
  • The ‘time to buy a major household item’ index fell 2.6%. The four-week moving average for inflation expectations was down by 0.1ppt to 4.0%, and the weekly reading, which was showing signs of stability, tumbling to 3.7%.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

“Renewed trade war tensions and the related equity weakness seemed to have negatively impacted consumer sentiment, with the drop over the past week driven by big falls in perceptions of current financial and economic conditions. Both remain comfortably above their long-term averages, however, most likely boosted by interest rate and tax cuts. Weekly inflation expectations fell to 3.7%, the weakest result since the end of June and a disappointing print from the RBA’s perspective especially given the lift in headline inflation in the Q2 CPI. Inflation expectations can be volatile from week-to-week, so we need to get a few more readings before we can determine whether this is a renewed downtrend.”


Consumer Confidence 3-4 August

Confidence down by 2.3%

ANZ-Roy Morgan Trading Down

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2