Back To Listing

Indonesian Consumer Confidence falls to 158.6 in June

Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ June 2019 (n=1,288).
In June 2019 Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence fell 3.2pts from May to 158.6. This is 0.6pts higher than a year ago in June 2018 (158.0) and a significant 21.7pts above the long-run average (2005-2019) of 136.9.

Despite a month-on-month fall in June, Indonesian Consumer Confidence is up slightly by 0.6pts on a year ago. The small increase from a year ago has been driven by provinces including Jakarta, West Java, East Java, Bali and in Northern Sumatra while Consumer Confidence in other provinces has declined from a year ago. Further details on Consumer Confidence by provinces and islands below.

Analysis of the latest consumer confidence (June 2019) compared to a month ago shows this month’s decrease is due to fewer Indonesians expressing confidence about their personal financial situation compared to a year ago and the prospects for the Indonesian economy going forward.

Now 41% (down 3ppts) of Indonesians consider their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago and 9% (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

An unchanged majority of 69% of Indonesians expect their family will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 4% (up 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

In June, 91% (down 1ppt) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months, and only 8% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’ financially.

And looking at the longer-term, now 93% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians expect Indonesia will have ‘good times’ economically over the next five years and 7% (up 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

A decreasing majority of 62% (down 2ppts) of Indonesians, say ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items and 35% (up 2ppts) say ‘now is a bad time to buy’ major household items.
Indonesian Consumer Confidence June 2019
Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ June 2019 (n=1,288).


Consumer Confidence up slightly from a year ago driven by increases in Jakarta & East Java

Analysing Indonesian Consumer Confidence by region shows a mixed picture with increases in the capital of Jakarta and provinces including West Java, East Java, Bali and Northern Sumatra slightly outweighing decreases in much of the rest of the country.

The provinces of East Java and Bali had the biggest increase in Consumer Confidence over the last year up by 3pts to 166.3 in June 2019 and these regions remain well above the national average of 158.6.

Consumer Confidence increased by 1.9pts to 154.4 in the provinces of Northern Sumatra and also by 1.9pts in the capital region of Jakarta and surrounding provinces of West Java and Banten to 154.2 over the last year although both regions remain well below the national average.

The island of Sulawesi again has the highest Consumer Confidence of any region of Indonesia despite a significant decrease of 7.6pts from a year ago to 174.2 in June 2019 while Consumer Confidence was down by 0.7pts to 163.5 in the provinces of Southern Sumatra.

Consumer Confidence on the island of Kalimantan fell by 1.1pts to 158.3 compared to a year ago and by 2.1pts to 154 in Central Java and Yogyakarta with both regions now having Consumer Confidence just below the national average.

Indonesian Consumer Confidence by Provinces & Islands: June 2018 cf. June 2019

Indonesian Consumer Confidence June 2018 2019
Source: Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source: Indonesians aged 14+ June 2018 (n=2,144) & June 2019 (n=1,288).

Ira Soekirman, Director, Roy Morgan Indonesia, says:


"In June Indonesian Consumer Confidence fell by 3.2pts to 158.6. However, with more than 9-in-10 Indonesians expecting good times economically in both the short and long term, Indonesians are very confident.

“Despite the monthly fall Consumer Confidence in Indonesia is still slightly higher than a year ago (up by 0.6pts from June 2018) and significantly higher in June 2019 than in southern neighbours Australia (116.1) and New Zealand (122.6).

“A look at the performance of Consumer Confidence in Indonesia’s regions shows the island of Sulawesi again has the highest Consumer Confidence at 174.2 in June while the biggest improvers over the last year are the provinces of East Java and Bali, up by 3pts to 166.3.

“During June newly re-elected President Jokowi travelled to the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan at which one of the key topics for discussion was global trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China.

“Indonesia has been one of the world’s fastest growing economies over the last two decades and is helped by continued strong growth in China which is Indonesia’s largest trading partner ahead of fellow G20 members Japan, the United States and India. The four countries combined account for over 40% of Indonesia’s annual exports.

“To get the most out of Roy Morgan’s in-depth research into the trends in the Indonesian economy and society subscribe to the Roy Morgan Indonesian Single Source which is the largest consumer database in Indonesia covering more than 30 industries, 150 product categories and over 1,500 plus brands in the world’s fourth largest country.”

The monthly Roy Morgan Indonesian Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,288 in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in June throughout Indonesia, not just a handful of cities. The survey includes the Top 23 cities, smaller cities and towns as well as many more villages in the rural hinterland, reflecting all of Indonesia.

Consumer Confidence remains very high in Indonesia when compared to Indonesia’s Asia-Pacific neighbours – Australia July 13/14, 2019 – 115.9) and New Zealand (June 2019 – 122.6) and long-term Consumer Confidence trends for the three countries are covered extensively here.



For further information:

Ira Soekirman: Office +62 21 572 2021 Mobile +62 811165400

Latest Roy Morgan Indonesian & ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0


For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com


About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2