Roy Morgan Research
April 28, 2020

COVID-19 movement case study shows supermarket traffic remains steady during pandemic: Sydney

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 8382
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A special analysis of movement data in indicative locations around Australia reveals that despite massive drop-offs in movement throughout Australia’s major cities Sydney and Melbourne, supermarkets have seen only a small impact.
Supermarkets have played a key role in the national conversation over the last couple of months as ‘panic buying’ of many essential goods took hold. Research firm Roy Morgan has partnered with leading technological innovator UberMedia to analyse movements at specific supermarket locations within each of the two cities. The results show no significant fall in the number of visitors to some of these supermarkets during the pandemic lockdown compared to January and February.
Analysing the movement at Erskineville Woolworth’s in Sydney’s Inner South-Western suburbs shows high movement in the week restrictions were first introduced in mid-March, and then a slight decline over the next two weeks. However, compared to the emptying out of the city’s major business districts, movement at Erskineville Woolworths remained fairly steady. In other words, whatever changes people have made to their shopping routines, it has not resulted in fewer in-person shoppers.
The date has been aggregated from tens of thousands of mobile devices in order to assess the impact of new Government regulations on social distancing designed to slow the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus throughout Australia.
Daily Analysis of Movement Data for Woolworths Erskineville in Sydney in 2020

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Source: Roy Morgan collaboration with UberMedia, which provides anonymous aggregated insights using mobile location data. 
In contrast, we have seen sharp drop-offs in movement data for key Sydney locations including the airport, Central and Redfern Stations, Taronga Zoo, and other shopping centres with high numbers of fashion and other stores that are temporarily closed, such as Westfield Chatswood, Marketplace Leichhardt, Stockland Balgowlah, Westfield Bondi Junction and Westfield Warringah.

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says the impact of the Coronavirus pandemic has been severe, with the Australian economy facing its biggest shock since World War II. However as essential suppliers, supermarkets have fared well as Australians hunkered down:

“Australians have dealt with an unprecedented restriction on freedom of movement over the last month to slow down the spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus – and these efforts are bearing fruit. But analysing movement at suburban supermarkets such as Erskineville Woolworths shows businesses providing food and other essential goods have fared well during the pandemic despite the restrictive social distancing measures.

“Unlike movement data for the Sydney CBD, which showed a changing composition of those going into the city compared to normal patterns, our analysis shows that the customers of Erskineville Woolworths are largely the same ones who generally shop there. The prosperous 100 Leading Lifestyles Helix Personas community comprises around 45% of those shopping at this store while the younger and successful 200 Metrotechs are just over 40% - numbers that have barely changed throughout this year. 

“Governments around Australia have announced plans to begin a relaxation of restrictions over the next few weeks as the ‘curve has flattened’. Lifting restrictions will see greater movement in our cities, although with social gatherings still to be limited to ten or fewer people, many businesses such as restaurants, clubs, bars, cinemas and theatres are set to remain closed.

“Keeping close track of the way lifting social distancing restrictions impacts on movement around Australia’s cities, including shopping precincts, will provide useful information in assessing what further measures must be undertaken to revitalise communities hard hit by the economic contraction.”  

MORE INFORMATION

Michele Levine – direct: 03 9224 5215 | mobile: 0411 129 093 | Michele.Levine@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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