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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence - 'Buying Time'

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence retraced slightly in July. The headline index came in at 119.8, easing four points from last month’s three year high of 123.9.
SUMMARY
  • Consumer Confidence remains high, despite a small decrease in July.

  • A near-record proportion of households continue to believe that the time is right to buy a major appliance.

  • High petrol prices and the prospect of increasing mortgage rates dented expected financial well-being.

  • Our Confidence Composite growth indicator, which combines Consumer and Business Confidence, is signalling an acceleration in economic growth to around 4.0 percent by the end of the year.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence retraced slightly in July. The headline index came in at 119.8, easing four points from last month’s three year high of 123.9.

The Current Conditions index dropped 4 points to 118, while the Future Conditions index eased 5 points to 121. Both measures returned to levels that prevailed three months earlier.

Mid-winter seasonality didn’t impact on the results in July. The seasonally adjusted headline, current, and future conditions series all eased to levels measured three months earlier.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence - July 2013

Confidence remains high relative to historical levels. However, all five questions used to calculate the overall measure recorded slightly weaker net balances versus a month earlier. For the first time in three months a greater share of respondents felt that versus a year ago they were worse off financially (34 percent, versus 31 percent feeling better off). Rising petrol prices eating into disposable incomes are the likely cause of this turnaround. In conjunction, higher longer-term fixed mortgage rates over the month are a hint of things to come for homeowners.

Respondents still believe better times lie ahead for the New Zealand economy. The proportion of respondents expecting better economic conditions for the economy over the next 12 months eased from +16 in June to +14 in July – but this remains the second-highest level of optimism in 2½ years.

An improvement in wealth through rising house prices in NZ’s largest real estate market continues to guide purchasing trends for major household items. Three out of every five respondents believe it is a good time to buy a major appliance – unchanged from last month and a whisker below the five-year high of 62 percent measured two months ago.

A robust composite confidence measure is signalling stronger economic growth is around the corner. While easing marginally in July, Consumer Confidence remains not far off the three-year high seen in June, while business confidence was also strong last month. Our combined business and consumer confidence measure is indicating economic growth will accelerate to around 4 percent by the end of the year, which would be the economy’s best performance since 2007.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence - July 2013

Download the full ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release - July 2013.

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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.