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Tony Abbott now leads Julia Gillard as ‘Better Prime Minister’ but majority of electors still disapprove of both

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights of June 11/12, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 475 electors.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott now clearly leads Julia Gillard as better Prime Minister (47%, up 11% since November 2012) over Prime Minister Julia Gillard (35%, down 14%) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (June 11/12, 2013).
  • Significantly, for the first time more women think Tony Abbott (42%, up 5%) would make a ‘Better Prime Minister’ than Julia Gillard (38%, down 11%).

  • However, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is still clearly preferred to Tony Abbott as Better Prime Minister: Rudd (50%, down 9% since March 2011) cf. Abbott (43%, up 11%);

  • In contrast, Abbott is clearly preferred as better Prime Minister to Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten: Abbott (49%) cf. Shorten (36%).

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

A record high 65% (up 17%) of electors disapprove of Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s handling of her job as Prime Minister compared to only 27% (down 15%) who approve.

While a majority of Australian electors (51%, down 12%) disapprove of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader, this is down from a record high 63% in November 2012 and now 41%, up 13% approve – the highest since March 2011.

Significantly, a clear majority of women disapprove (60%, up 13%) of Prime Minister Gillard’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to only 30% (down 11%) who approve. However, more women disapprove (54%, down 10%) of Opposition Leader Abbott’s handling of the job than approve (39%, up 14%).

Gary Morgan says:

“For the first time this special telephone Morgan Poll shows Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (47%, up 11% since November 2012) now leads Prime Minister Julia Gillard (35%, down 14%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’.”

“However, former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (50%, down 9% since March 2011) still leads Abbott (43%, up 11%) when the two are compared. In contrast Abbott (49%) clearly leads Employment and Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten (36%) on the same question.

“Another Morgan Poll conducted in conjunction shows that Australian electors clearly prefer former leaders Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull to the current leaders for each of the major parties. 33% (down 1%) prefer Kevin Rudd far ahead of the 14% (down 8%) that prefer Julia Gillard as preferred Labor Leader while former Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull (47%, down 3%) is even further ahead of both Tony Abbott (18%, up 3%) and Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey (19%, up 1%) as preferred Liberal Leader.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two nights of June 11/12, 2013, with an Australia-wide cross section of 475 electors.

Federal Voting Intention

As with all Roy Morgan surveys Federal voting intention was asked. Based on a sample of 475 electors this telephone Morgan Poll showed the L-NP (59%) cf. ALP (41%) on a two-party preferred basis. The primary vote showed the L-NP (50.5%), ALP (26%), Greens (12%) and Independent/ Others (11.5%).

This result is identical to last week’s telephone Morgan Poll on a two-party preferred basis which also showed the L-NP (59%) cf. ALP (41%) and also very similar to last weekend’s telephone Newspoll which showed the L-NP (58%) cf. ALP (42%) on a two-party preferred basis and primary voting intention of L-NP (49%), ALP (30%), Greens (9%) and Independent/ Others (12%).

Both the telephone Morgan Poll and telephone Newspoll recorded a higher L-NP vote than recorded in last weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll of 3,369 Australian electors which showed the L-NP (56%) cf. ALP (44%). Primary voting intention of L-NP (46%), ALP (31%), Greens (9.5%) and Independent/ Others (13.5%). It is well-known that telephone polls produce a higher result for the party ‘expected to win’ Government – now the Coalition!

Julia Gillard vs. Tony Abbott – By Gender

Job Approval Prime Minister & Opposition Leader: Gillard vs. Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Julia Gillard and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

Approval of Leaders – Julia Gillard vs. Tony Abbott

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Gillard

45

49

35

45

50

31

45

49

38

Abbott

37

36

47

39

35

51

36

37

42

Gillard lead

8

13

(12)

6

15

(20)

9

12

(4)

Other / Neither

18

15

18

16

15

18

19

14

20

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100















Prime Minister: Julia Gillard

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Julia Gillard)

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

40

42

27

38

43

24

42

41

30

Disapprove

51

48

65

52

48

71

51

47

60

Approve –

Disapprove

(11)

(6)

(38)

(14)

(5)

(47)

(9)

(6)

(30)

Can’t say

9

10

8

10

9

5

7

12

10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100










Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Analysis by Sex (Approve/ Disapprove – Tony Abbott)

 

Electors 18+

Men

Women

 

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

June 11/12,
2013

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

32

28

41

32

31

44

31

25

39

Disapprove

60

63

51

60

61

48

59

64

54

Approve –

Disapprove

(28)

(35)

(10)

(28)

(30)

(4)

(28)

(39)

(15)

Can’t say

8

9

8

8

8

           8

10

11

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Julia Gillard and Mr. Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

 

Gillard v Abbott

 

Dec 8-12,

2010

Feb 1-3,

2011

Feb 21-23,

2011

Mar 8-10,

2011

Mar 16/17,

2011

Jan 17/18,

2012

Sep 17-20,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012