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Female support rises strongly for the Government after Howard Sattler interview with Prime Minister

Finding No. 4973 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, June 14-16, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,323 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 1.0% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Last weekend’s Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP at 53.5%, down 2.5% in a week (since June 7-10, 2013) cf. ALP 46.5% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis according to the multi-mode weekly  Morgan Poll.

The L-NP primary vote is 44.5% (down 1.5%) still well ahead of the ALP 33% (up 2%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (down 0.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 13.5% (unchanged) including the Palmer United Party (3%) and Katter’s Australian Party (1%).

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, June 14-16, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,323 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged to a record low 89.5pts (down 9pts) coinciding with renewed infighting between Prime Minister Julia Gillard and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd over the leadership of the ALP with only 34.5% (down 5.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 45% (up 3.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender this week shows both genders swinging towards the ALP but with a wide divergence between men and women. Women are now evenly split on a two party preferred basis with the ALP (50%, up 4%) level with the L-NP (50%, down 4%) while men still strongly favour the L-NP (56.5%, down 2%) cf. ALP (43.5%, up 2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the ALP closing the gap on the L-NP with the L-NP (53.5%, down 2.5% in a week) cf. ALP (46.5%, up 2.5%) after Perth radio host Howard Sattler interviewed Prime Minister Julia Gillard last Thursday and questioned the Prime Minister about her partner’s sexuality. Sattler was subsequently sacked on Friday afternoon by Fairfax Radio and the Morgan Poll which was interviewed after this point shows a clear swing back to the Government.

“A Fairfax-Nielsen poll released overnight showed the L-NP (57%) cf. ALP (43%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, it is important to note the Fairfax-Nielsen poll was conducted between Thursday and Saturday last week (June 13-15, 2013) which means many of the Fairfax-Nielsen interviews were conducted before the full impact of the Howard Sattler interview and subsequent sacking was known.

“Despite the improved showing for the Government in today’s Morgan Poll, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped to a record low 89.5pts (down 9pts) with only 34.5% (down 5.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 45% (up 3.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. These are worrying figures for the Government as Parliament prepares to sit for the last time before this year’s Federal Election.

“Today’s Morgan Poll result shows that voting intentions can swing on what may seem minor matters and that despite the L-NP enjoying a sizeable two-party preferred lead this year’s Federal Election result is still ‘up for grabs’.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 4973 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing,  June 14-16, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,323 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 1.0% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Roy Morgan Federal Voting Intention - June 17, 2013


Roy Morgan GCR

Men 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

May
24-26, 2013

May 31-
June 2, 2013

June
7-10, 2013

June
14-16, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

31

29.5

29.5

30.5

L-NP

47.5 (3)

47.5 (2.5)

48 (2)

47.5 (2.5)

Greens

9.5

8

8.5

7.5

Ind. /Other

12

15

14

14.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

43.5

42

41.5

43.5

L-NP

56.5

58

58.5

56.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

May
24-26, 2013

May 31-
June 2, 2013

June
7-10, 2013

June
14-16, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

35.5

33.5

32.5

35

L-NP

44 (3)

43.5(3)

44.5 (3)

42 (2)

Greens

9.5

11

10.5

10.5

Ind. /Other

11

12

12.5

12.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

47.5

47.5

46

50

L-NP

52.5

52.5

54

50

TOTAL

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093

Data Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0