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ALP Set to Win Federal Election with One Week to Go

Published in The Bulletin, cover date November 13, 2001

The ALP has stretched its lead over the Liberal-National Party Coalition on a two-party preferred basis to 9% with only one week of campaigning remaining until the November 10, 2001 Federal election. On these figures the ALP would win with a sizeable majority, according to The Bulletin-Morgan Poll.

On the weekend of November 3/4, primary support for the ALP was 43.5% (up 1.5%), with support for the Liberal-National Party Coalition at 38.5% (down 2%). Within the Federal Coalition, support for the Liberal Party was 34.5% (down 3%) and support for the National Party 4% (up 1%).

Among the minor parties, Australian Democrats support was 6.5% (up 0.5%), support for The Greens was 4.5% (unchanged), support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party was 2.5% (down 1.5%), while support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates was 4.5% (up 1.5%).

On a two-party preferred basis support for the ALP was 54.5% (up 2%) and support for the L-NP at 45.5% (down 2%). Two-party preferred support for the ALP has increased with each week of the campaign, and with the ALP now ahead in the key marginal L-NP seats (see Finding No. 3469 "Education and health top election issues"), the Government will be defeated on November 10.

Gary Morgan says:

"While the Prime Minister still has one week to convince the electorate to change its mind, face-to-face Morgan Polls conducted a week out from the previous three Federal elections suggest a swing back to the Government of greater than 2% is unlikely - and even with a 2% swing the ALP would win with a clear majority.

"The swing to the ALP began after Mr Beazley decisively won the television debate. Since then the ALP has campaigned heavily on education, health, and social welfare and aged care, the key issues mentioned by electors in The Bulletin-Morgan issues poll conducted on the weekend of October 20/21, 2001.

(www.roymorgan.com/polls/2001/3465)

"In addition the electorate, particularly younger voters, must be concerned with potential job losses as the local and international economy deteriorates further, and this is reflected by the finding that 63% of those aged under-35 are intending to vote for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis, according to our latest poll." 

Two-Party Preferred Vote
  Analysis by Gender & Age
  Electors Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
               
L-NP 45.5 42 48.5 38 36 46 51.5
ALP 54.5 58 51.5 62 64 54 34.5
               
  100 100 100 100 100 100 100

During the period of the poll:

  • The Coalition and the ALP officially launched their respective campaigns. The centrepiece of John Howard’s bid for a third term in government was a $1.2 billion baby bonus involving a tax rebate of between $500 and $2,500 a year for parents who choose to stay at home rather than continue working during the child’s early years. A $416 million package of extra money for aged care was also announced by Mr Howard.
  • The $6 billion, 5-year plan for a "knowledge nation" underpinned Opposition Leader Kim Beazley’s bid to become the next Prime Minister. Mr Beazley’s election campaign largely focused on domestic issues including education, health and a GST rollback plan.
  • The Taliban announced Australia would be a target in it’s "holy war" after warnings that any country joining the US attacks in Afghanistan would be become a target for a retaliatory "jihad." Prime Minister John Howard urged Australia not to panic over the warnings, saying, "This is not unexpected, we can’t ignore it but we shouldn’t overreact."

Preferences of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party supporters (L-NP - 76% cf ALP - 24%) favoured the Federal Government, while preferences of supporters of The Greens (ALP - 77.5% cf L-NP - 22.5%), Australian Democrats supporters (ALP - 75% cf L-NP - 25%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates supporters (ALP - 60% cf L-NP - 40%), favoured the Federal Opposition.

This latest Bulletin-Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on November 3/4 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,710 electors. Electors were asked: "At the Federal election for the House of Representatives on November 10th, which party will receive your first preference?"

Who Electors Think Will Win

Electors were asked: "Who do you think will win the Federal election on November 10th?" 

Think Will Win Next Federal Election
  September 29/30 &
October 6/7, 2001
October 13/14
2001
October 20/21,
2001
October 27/28,
2001
November 3/4.
2001
  % % % % %
           
L-NP 64 68 57.5 54.5 52
ALP 27 23.5 32 35 34
Can’t say 9 8.5 10.5 10.5 14
           
  100 100 100 100 100

The proportion of electors who think the L-NP will win the next election has slipped a further 2.5% to 52%, while the proportion who think the ALP will win was 34% (down 1%). 

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%) 

PRIMARY VOTE L-NP ALP Aust.
Dem.
The
Greens
P.Hanson
One Nation
Ind./
Others
Election March 13, 1993 44.3 44.9 3.7 1.6 N/A 5.5
Election March 2, 1996 47.3 (8.6) 38.8 6.8 1.7 N/A 5.4
Election October 3, 19981 39.5 (5.3) 40.1 5.1 2.1 8.5 4.7
MORGAN POLL  
             
September 15/16 41 (1.5) 41 6 4.5 4 3.5
September 22/23 41.5 (2) 41.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 3.5
September 29/30, October 6/7 43 (2.5) 39.5 5.5 4 4 4
October 13/14 47.5 (2.5) 35 7 4.5 2.5 3.5
October 20/21 41.5 (2) 41 7 3.5 3 4
October 27/28 40.5 (3) 42 6 4.5 4 3
November 3/4 38.5 (4) 43.5 6.5 4.5 2.5 4.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets

1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contest ing the electorate of Newcastle.


TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
  L-NP ALP
Election March 13, 1993 48.6 51.4
Election March 2, 1996 53.6 46.4
Election October 3, 19982 49 51
MORGAN POLL  
     
September 15/16 49 51
September 22/23 49 51
September 29/30, October 6/7 50 50
October 13/14 55 45
October 20/21 48.5 51.5
October 27/28 47.5 52.5
November 3/4 45.5 54.5
1 For the October 3, 1998 Federal election the L-NP didn’t contest the Newcastle supplementary election. For Newcastle the L-NP "two-Party" estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide "two-Party" preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
October 13/14
2001
October 20/21,
2001
October 27/28,
2001
November 3/4,
2001
  L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP
MORGAN POLL  
         
Pauline Hanson One Nation ** 62.5

37.5

67.5

32.5

63.5 36.5 76 24
Australian Democrats ** 37.5

62.5

29.5

70.5

36 64 22.5 77.5
The Greens ** 29.5

70.5

27.5

72.5

28.5 71.5 25 75
Independent/Other ** 63.5

36.5

42.5

57.5

40 60 46 54
Sample: 1,710 electors interviewed face-to-face on November 3/4, 2001.

2.5% did not name a party.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the 
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand 
has this qualification.