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NZ National Party Swing of 16.1% Threatens Clark Labour Government

With two days to go until the New Zealand Election, neither party looks set to gain sufficient seats to form a Government without a coalition with minor parties. The latest Morgan Poll conducted September 3 to 13 shows support for the Labour Party at 38.5% (down 2.8% since the last election), with support for the Nationals at 37% (up 16.1%), Green Party 7.5% (up 0.5%), New Zealand First 6.5% (down 3.9%), ACT New Zealand 3% (down 4.1%), United Future 2.5%, Maori Party (1.5%) and Others (3.5%).

 

 

Total All People 18+

 

July 2002

Election Results

Jul—Dec 2002

Apr—Jul 2005

Sept 3-13 2005

%

%

%

%

Labour

41.3

47.5

39

38.5

National

20.9

21.5

37

37

New Zealand First

10.4

8.5

9

6.5

The Green Party

7

6

5

7.5

Act New Zealand

7.1

6.5

2

3

Other

13.3

10

8

7.5*

Total

100

100

100

100

*Comprising United Future NZ (2.5%), Maori Party (1.5%) and Progressive Alliance , Jim Anderton (0.5%)

 

In an exclusive analysis the Morgan Poll reviewed voting intention in the six months after the 2002 election (Labour’s honeymoon period), and the four months to July 2005. The overall swing to the National Party of 16.1 points has been far from uniform.

The charts below show clearly the largest swing occurred among men (19.5 point swing), and those earning over $80,000 (17.5 point swing).

 

 

The National Party has gained more support from men (up 19.5% to 41%) than women (up 11% to 32.5%). The largest increase in support was in the 35-49 age group, up 16.5% to 39% and the 18-24 age group, also up 16.5% to 35.5%. National Party support increased more in regional areas than capital cities - Rural Areas up 16.5% to 42.5%, Small Towns up 16% to 37%, Major Towns up 15.5% to 35%, with Major Cities up slightly less (14%) to 34.5%. The highest rise in support for the National Party occurred among people earning over $80,000 — now a majority with 58.5%, up 17.5%.

 

Gary Morgan says:

“Further analysis of the New Zealand electors swing to the National Party showed a dramatic 19.5 point swing among New Zealanders who do not believe ‘Maori culture is an essential component of New Zealand society’. The swing was only 10 points among those who saw Maori culture as an essential component of New Zealand society.”

 

This latest Morgan Poll on Voting Intention was conducted in New Zealand from September 3-13, 2005, with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,149 electors. Electors were asked ‘If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?’. Of electors who said they were likely to vote (89.5%), 5% were undecided.

 

 

 

For further information:

 

 

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile + 61 411 129 094   Home +61 3 9419 3242

 

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093    Home +61 3 9817 3066

 

 

 

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size
Percentage estimate
25-75%
10% or 90%
5% or 95%
1000
 ± 3
 ± 2
 ± 1½

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.