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In South Australia: Support For Liberals Up 4% But ALP Would Still Win Election Easily

During May and June, primary support for the South Australian ALP dropped 2% to 48%, while support for the Liberal Party was up 5% to 31.5%. Despite the fall in ALP support, the result is still 2.8% above their March 2006 election result of 45.2%.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2002 South Australian election ALP support is 59% (down 3%) with Liberal support 41% (up 3%).

If a South Australian State Election was held in May — June, the ALP would have won easily the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 4.5% (down 2.5%), Family First 4% (unchanged), the Australian Democrats 2.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 9.5% (up 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Following Labor’s comprehensive election victory in March, Mike Rann’s Government has lost some ground to the Liberals, who were up 4% to 31.5% during May-June. However, Labor still commands 48% of the primary vote and holds a 18% lead in two-party preferred.

“In good news for the Government, a Morgan Poll released today shows that 71% of South Australian voters think Mike Rann is a better Premier than Iain Evans would be. Rann has an approval rating of 60%, which jumps 11% to 71% when taking into consideration ALP voters only.”

During the period:

  • Democrats leader Sandra Kanck resisted calls to immediately resign after announcing she would not contest the next election. Kanck also came under scrutiny for telling Parliament that the drug ecstasy is not dangerous.

  • Labor MP Stephanie Key claimed that two-thirds of the Legislative Assembly would support a voluntary euthanasia bill.

  • Parliament passed legislation to exclude water trading from stamp duty tax.

  • The Liberal Party accused the Government of economic and administrative incompetence after it emerged that Patrick Conlon’s transport portfolio had had an $800 million budget blowout.

  • Premier Mike Rann and Treasurer Kevin Foley defended their decision to delay the release of the State budget by four months, saying the Federal Government’s industrial relations reforms had created too much uncertainty in the economy.

  • Deputy PM Mark Vaile announced a Federal Government plan to link health funding allocated to the State Government specifically to regional and rural facilities.

  • Australia took part in the Soccer World Cup in Germany with scores of fans packing out Federation Square to cheer on the Socceroos. This was the first time since 1974 and only the second time ever that Australia had been represented in the World Cup Finals.


Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 77% cf Lib. — 23%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 53% cf Lib. — 47%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 52% cf Lib. — 48%) favoured the ALP State Government, while preferences of supporters of Family First (Lib. 78.5% - ALP 21.5%) favoured the L-NP Opposition.

This Morgan Poll on South Australian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 610 electors throughout South Australia on the weekends throughout May and June. Electors were asked: “If a State Election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4% (unchanged) did not name a party.

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE ALP Liberal Aust.
Dem.#
Family
First#^
The
Greens#
One
Nation#
Ind./
Others#*

% % % % % % %
Election February 9, 2002 36.3 40 7.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 8.8
 
May - June 2003 52 32 4 2 5 1 4.5
July - August 2003 48 30 7 2 6 0.5 6.5
September - October 2003 47 33 6 1.5 4 1.5 7
November - December 2003 45 34.5 7 1 6.5 1 5
January - February 2004 53 32.5 3.5 2 4 1.5 3.5
March - April  2004 49.5 32.5 3.5 2 7.5 0.5 4.5
May - June 2004 51 32.5 4.5 1.5 4.5 2 4
July - August 2004 53 33 3.5 1.5 6 0.5 2.5
September - October 2004 53.5 33 3 4 3.5 0.5 2.5
November - December 2004 50.5 36 2 4 4 0.5 3
January - February 2005 45 38.5 4 4 5.5 0.5 2.5
March - April 2005 44.5 38 4 4 3.5 1 5
May - June 2005 54 33 1 4 4 0.5 3.5
July - August 2005 53 32 3 4 3.5 1 3.5
September - October 2005 50 33 3.5 3.5 4.5 0.5 5
November - December 2005 49 32 4 5.5 4 1 4.5
January - February 2006 50.5 33 3 3.5 4.5 0.5 5
February — March 11/12 2006 50.5 31 3.5 3 6 0.5 5.5
Before election announcement
50.5 31.5 5 3.5 4 - 5.5
After election announcement
50.5 30.5 2 2 8 0.5 6.5
March - April 2006 50 26.5 3 4 7 0.5 9
May - June 2006 48 31.5 2.5 4 4.5 - 9.5
*Includes votes for the National Party 
#Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution. 
^Family First was included as an option on South Australian State Voting Intention in November 2000.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE


ALP Liberal


% %    
Election February 9, 2002 49.1 50.9    
MORGAN POLL Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2002 election
  ALP Liberal ALP Liberal
  % % % %
July - August 2003 60 40 60 40
September - October 2003 59 41 58 42
November - December 2003 58 42 56 44
January - February 2004 62 38 61 39
March - April  2004 61.5 38.5 59 41
May - June 2004 62.5 37.5 60 40
July - August 2004 63 37 60.5 39.5
September - October 2004 61 39 61 39
November - December 2004 59.5 40.5 58 42
January - February 2005 54 46 54 46
March - April 2005 53.5 46.5 54 46
May - June 2005 62 38 61 39
July - August 2005 62 38 60.5 39.5
September - October 2005 62.5 37.5 59.5 40.5
November - December 2005 60.5 39.5 59.5 40.5
January - February 2006 60.5 39.5 59.5 40.5
February — March 11/12 2006 61.5 38.5 61 39
Before election announcement
61.5 38.5 60 40
After election announcement
61.5 38.5 61 39
March - April 2006 63.5 36.5 62 38
May - June 2006 58.5 41.5 59 41
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES

Jan - Feb,
2006

Feb-Mar 11/12,
2006

Mar - Apr 2006 May - Jun 2006
MORGAN POLL ALP Lib. ALP Lib. ALP Lib. ALP Lib.

% % % % % % % %
Australian Democrats## 80.5 19.5 81 19 81 19 53 47
Family First## 56.5 43.5 50 50 33 67 21.5 78.5
The Greens ## 93 7 91.5 8.5 92.5 7.5 77 23
One Nation ## - 100 - 100 - 100 - -
Independent/Other ## 31 69 29 71 56 44 52 48
##Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
Sample: 420 electors
InterviewedFebruary - March 11/12, 2006.
5% (unchanged) did not name a party.