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Morgan Poll Most Accurate - Morgan Poll Accurate On Major Parties

The most accurate poll of the 2007 Australian Federal Election was the telephone Morgan Poll conducted election eve, Friday November 23.

After all the votes have been counted, the two-party vote is ALP 52.7%, L-NP 47.3%.  

The final Morgan Poll, based on surveying Friday night and released Saturday morning (November 24), predicted ALP 53.5%, L-NP 46.5%.

The average error on the two-party preferred vote was 0.8% (the most accurate prediction ever). The Morgan Poll average error for the major parties was (0.35%) and for all parties (1.92%).

The least accurate poll was the telephone Age/ACNielsen Poll which overestimated the ALP lead by 8.6% (with an average error on the two-party preferred vote of 4.3%, and an average error on the major parties of 3.3%).  

ACNielsen also released an Internet poll showing the same error on the two-party preferred vote.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Morgan Poll on December 16, 2006, (published in the Crikey newsletter in the December 15 edition) was the first to show the swing to the ALP after Kevin Rudd took over the ALP leadership in early December 200 (other polls picked up the movement to the ALP in February/March).

“The Morgan Poll accurately recorded the strong support for the ALP for the entire 2007 year, and accurately recorded the closing of the ALP lead once the election was called.

“Galaxy and Newspoll ‘overestimated’ the closing of the ALP lead during the election campaign, thus ‘underestimating’ the national swing to the ALP from 2004 to 2007.

“ACNielsen published two final poll predictions — one on-line poll and the other a telephone poll — that gave the same result, but went in a totally different direction to all other polls and were just very wrong.”

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                 Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:           Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 


FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION —Primary Vote Predictions

 

Nov 24

Nov 23

Nov 20-22

Nov 19-21

Nov 20/21

 

2007

Telephone

Telephone

Telephone

Telephone

 

Federal election

Morgan Poll

Newspoll

ACNielsen

Galaxy

 

Result*

%

error

%

error

%

error

%

error

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sample Size

 

(2,115)

 

(2,615)

 

(2,071)

 

(1,186)

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

L-NP

42.1

41.5

-0.6

43

+0.9

40

-2.1

42.5

+0.4

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALP

43.4

43.5

+0.1

44

+0.6

48

+4.6

42.5

-0.9

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Greens

7.8

8.5

+0.7

7

-0.8

8

+0.2

8.5

+0.7

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Family First

2.0

2.5

+0.5

NR

n/a

1

-1.0

2.5

+0.5

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ind/Other

4.7

4

-0.7

6

1.3

3

-1.7

4

+0.7

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Av. error on major parties (L-NP, ALP)

   

0.35

 

0.5

 

3.3

 

0.65

Av. error on all parties

   

0.52

 

0.9#

 

1.92

 

0.64

 

 

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION —Two Party Preferred Predictions

 

L-NP

       47.3       

46.5

-0.8

48

+0.7

43

-4.3

48

+0.7

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALP

52.7

53.5

+0.8

52

-0.7

57

+4.3

52

-0.7

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALP Lead

5.4

7

 

4

 

14

 

4

 

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ave error

   

0.8

 

0.7

 

4.3

 

0.7

 

* Australian Electoral Commission (http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/Website/HouseStateFirstPrefsByParty-13745-NAT.htm); full results, 2007

# Newspoll did not release a Family First vote (they included Family First in “Ind./Other”) so the Newspoll average error is based on four estimates not five