A recent Roy Morgan International survey conducted in conjunction with the Gallup International Association survey in 33 countries worldwide finds. In Australia, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,330 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone on November 11-22, 2009. In New Zealand, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,010 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone between November 16-29, 2009.
A recent Roy Morgan International survey conducted in conjunction with the Gallup International Association survey in 33 countries worldwide finds:
Better or Worse year in 2010:
Sixty-six per cent of Australians (up 17% in 12 months) believe 2010 will be a better year than 2009, while 18% (up 1%) think it will be the same or don’t know and only 16% (down 18%) think it will be worse.
New Zealanders are in fact the most optimistic about 2010 of all 33 countries surveyed with 73% (up a large 29%) expecting a better year, with just 12% (down 4%) expecting the same or don’t know and only 15% (down 25%) expecting a worse year.
Around the world, just behind New Zealand as the most optimistic countries expecting 2010 to be a better year than 2009 are Brazil (71%), Russia (66% — up a large 24%), Australia (also 66%) and China (64%, up 11%). Of Australia’s closest allies the Americans (50%, up 12%) are more positive about the year ahead than those in the United Kingdom (41%, up 19%) — although both have enjoyed strong rises from a year ago.
In contrast in only 12 of the 33 countries surveyed do pessimists exceed optimists, led by Croatia in which 57%, up 1% expect 2010 to be a worse year than 2009, and followed by neighbouring Eastern European countries Bosnia-Herzegovina (47%, up 3%), Serbia (44%, down 9%), Albania (44%) and Romania (43%, up 4%).
Economic prosperity or Economic difficulty in 2010:
Majorities of New Zealanders (65%, up 31%) and Australians (56%, up 20%) expect 2010 to be the same economically as 2009 or don’t know. Encouragingly, more Australians (27%, up 15%) and New Zealanders (21%, up 10%) expect 2010 to be a year of economic prosperity compared to only 17% (down 35%) of Australians and 14% (down 41%) of New Zealanders that expect 2010 to be a year of economic difficulty.
In terms of economic prosperity the most optimistic country in 2010 is clearly Brazil (65%) — the only country in which a majority of respondents expect economic prosperity in 2010. Other countries with pluralities expecting economic prosperity in 2010 are China (49%, up 8%), Venezuela (42%, up 20%) and war-torn Iraq and Afghanistan (both 39%).
Australia’s most important allies are significantly lower and clearly split about how they regard the economic situation in 2010 with 28% (up 11%) of Americans expecting a year of economic prosperity while even more, 32% (down 22%) expect a year of economic difficulty. Residents of the United Kingdom are less optimistic with only 12% (up 6%) expecting a year of economic prosperity while 30% (down 37%) expect a year of economic difficulty.
In only 8 of 33 countries surveyed do majorities of respondents expect economic difficulty in 2010, led by Croatia (57%, unchanged), Bosnia-Herzegovina (54%, up 10%), Israel (54%), Bulgaria (51%, down 3%) and France (51%)
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest Roy Morgan International survey conducted in association with the Gallup International Association shows that people around the world have grown far more positive about the New Year than was the case just over a year ago in the middle of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
“In the 24 countries surveyed in both of the last two years — 18 are more positive about the New Year than a year ago. Only 6 are less positive. The most positive countries are New Zealand (73%, up 29%), Brazil (71%), Australia (66%, up 17%), Russia (66%, up 24%) and China (64%, up 11%) — all countries with clear majorities expecting 2010 to be a ‘Better year’ than 2009.
“The survey results show that countries in Eastern Europe continue to have the most difficulties with high numbers of people in Croatia (57%, up 1%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (47%, up 3%), Serbia (44%, down 9%), Albania (44%) and Romania (43%, up 4%) expecting 2010 to be a ‘Worse year’ than 2009.”
In Australia, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,330 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone on November 11-22, 2009.
In New Zealand, Roy Morgan International interviewed a cross-section of 1,010 men and women aged 14 or over by telephone between November 16-29, 2009.
1. Next Year - Better or Worse Than This Year
Respondents were asked: “As far as you're concerned, do you think next year will be better or worse than this year?"
New Zealanders are the most optimistic about 2010 with 73% (up a large 29%) expecting a better year, 12% (down 4%) expecting the same or don’t know and 15% (down 25%) expecting a worse year.
Australians are also optimistic about 2010 with 66% (up 17%) expecting a better year compared to 18% (up 1%) expecting the same or don’t know and 16% (down 18%) expecting a worse year.
Around the world the large developing nations that many know as the “BRIC” nations are amongst the most positive with Brazil (71%), Russia (66%, up 24%) and China (64%, up 11%) expecting 2010 to be a better year than 2009. Other nations with a majority of respondents expecting 2010 to be a better year are Canada (53%, up 22%) and Afghanistan (52%).
| |
Expect a Better Year in…
|
Better
|
Same/
Don't Know
|
Worse
|
|
|
‘89
|
‘90
|
‘91
|
‘92
|
‘93
|
‘94
|
‘95
|
‘96
|
‘97
|
‘98
|
‘99
|
‘00
|
‘01
|
‘02
|
‘03
|
'04
|
‘05
|
‘06
|
‘07
|
‘08
|
‘09
|
2010
|
2010
|
2010
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
New Zealand
|
*
|
56
|
41
|
33
|
58
|
59
|
61
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
62
|
56
|
62
|
65
|
63
|
59
|
60
|
59
|
65
|
57
|
44
|
73
|
12
|
15
|
|
Brazil
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
71
|
22
|
7
|
|
Russia +
|
54
|
37
|
18
|
21
|
29
|
29
|
20
|
27
|
27
|
41
|
15
|
27
|
33
|
52
|
31
|
30
|
39
|
31
|
42
|
39
|
42
|
66
|
24
|
10
|
|
Australia
Better
Same/Don’t Know
Worse
|
47
22
31
|
43
22
35
|
33
18
49
|
54
20
26
|
42
22
36
|
60
22
18
|
65
19
16
|
53
29
18
|
*
*
*
|
50
28
22
|
55
25
20
|
49
30
21
|
46
33
21
|
53
21
26
|
51
16
33
|
68
17
15
|
61
22
17
|
49
22
29
|
47
25
28
|
53
23
24
|
49
17
34
|
66
|
18
|
16
|
|
China
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
70
|
75
|
73
|
*
|
53
|
64
|
23
|
13
|
|
Canada
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
59
|
57
|
60
|
50
|
31
|
53
|
38
|
9
|
|
Afghanistan
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
69
|
45
|
*
|
*
|
52
|
38
|
10
|
|
Iraq
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
49
|
33
|
38
|
*
|
50
|
31
|
19
|
|
USA
|
61
|
49
|
48
|
61
|
61
|
64
|
*
|
45
|
51
|
54
|
*
|
62
|
50
|
52
|
64
|
69
|
65
|
51
|
40
|
32
|
38
|
50
|
29
|
21
|
|
Colombia
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
66
|
48
|
49
|
25
|
26
|
|
Venezuela
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
51
|
57
|
57
|
53
|
29
|
44
|
34
|
22
|
|
Ecuador
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
29
|
11
|
32
|
20
|
14
|
21
|
24
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
44
|
29
|
27
|
|
United Kingdom
|
46
|
36
|
43
|
45
|
33
|
35
|
*
|
47
|
53
|
52
|
42
|
32
|
36
|
41
|
41
|
45
|
36
|
42
|
47
|
41
|
22
|
41
|
34
|
25
|
|
Azerbaijan
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
41
|
30
|
29
|
|
Bahrain
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
41
|
39
|
29
|
32
|
|
Germany #
|
29
|
22
|
25
|
20
|
12
|
27
|
37
|
41
|
35
|
34
|
46
|
44
|
44
|
36
|
22
|
30
|
25
|
29
|
25
|
28
|
29
|
37
|
43
|
20
|
|
Iceland
|
31
|
39
|
38
|
33
|
32
|
43
|
55
|
43
|
41
|
46
|
39
|
47
|
45
|
43
|
47
|
29
|
29
|
35
|
34
|
29
|
4
|
35
|
50
|
15
|
|
Macedonia
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
57
|
24
|
45
|
49
|
40
|
42
|
40
|
34
|
46
|
20
|
|
France
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
30
|
47
|
45
|
37
|
37
|
33
|
27
|
39
|
39
|
*
|
29
|
47
|
24
|
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
44
|
45
|
41
|
38
|
47
|
27
|
27
|
27
|
38
|
28
|
45
|
38
|
28
|
27
|
26
|
47
|
|
South Korea
|
62
|
56
|
43
|
39
|
35
|
45
|
47
|
49
|
27
|
16
|
24
|
32
|
17
|
25
|
33
|
30
|
14
|
26
|
23
|
*
|
14
|
26
|
59
|
15
|
|
Malaysia
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
59
|
70
|
55
|
46
|
44
|
53
|
55
|
45
|
37
|
37
|
*
|
23
|
57
|
20
|
|
Pakistan
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
34
|
42
|
*
|
41
|
47
|
59
|
37
|
43
|
47
|
41
|
45
|
40
|
32
|
29
|
9
|
23
|
48
|
29
|
|
Bulgaria
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
44
|
40
|
43
|
44
|
46
|
24
|
37
|
29
|
25
|
20
|
22
|
15
|
19
|
21
|
15
|
26
|
22
|
17
|
23
|
42
|
35
|
|
Italy
|
48
|
59
|
43
|
46
|
31
|
39
|
48
|
47
|
39
|
45
|
45
|
44
|
43
|
37
|
27
|
27
|
28
|
27
|
23
|
16
|
15
|
21
|
45
|
34
|
|
Serbia †
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
33
|
*
|
38
|
65
|
46
|
32
|
33
|
22
|
9
|
34
|
25
|
16
|
21
|
35
|
44
|
|
Austria
|
22
|
23
|
22
|
19
|
14
|
17
|
23
|
14
|
13
|
16
|
23
|
12
|
15
|
16
|
12
|
12
|
13
|
*
|
15
|
15
|
22
|
20
|
59
|
21
|
|
Japan
|
27
|
24
|
23
|
21
|
24
|
17
|
22
|
21
|
21
|
16
|
18
|
20
|
17
|
11
|
9
|
14
|
16
|
20
|
19
|
21
|
13
|
20
|
59
|
21
|
|
Romania
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
31
|
34
|
61
|
31
|
16
|
17
|
44
|
27
|
35
|
39
|
49
|
29
|
32
|
35
|
21
|
20
|
37
|
43
|
|
Albania
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
48
|
42
|
*
|
31
|
*
|
20
|
36
|
44
|
|
Czech Republic
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
27
|
31
|
22
|
18
|
20
|
27
|
31
|
29
|
30
|
16
|
25
|
29
|
22
|
12
|
14
|
19
|
43
|
38
|
|
Croatia
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
45
|
30
|
-
|
45
|
27
|
30
|
37
|
*
|
37
|
32
|
33
|
17
|
15
|
28
|
57
|
|
Israel
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
53
|
51
|
39
|
373
|
*
|
11
|
47
|
42
|
* Not surveyed. + U.S.S.R. surveyed prior to 1992. # West Germany surveyed until 1989 & United Germany surveyed since 1990. † Yugoslavia surveyed in 1997 & 2002
2. Economic Prosperity or Economic Difficulty Next Year?
Respondents were then asked: “Compared with this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty, or about the same?”
Leading the way as countries with the highest economic expectations for 2010 are large developing countries Brazil (65%) and China (49%, up 8%), followed by Venezuela (42%, up 20%), Iraq & Afghanistan (both 39%) and Russia (35%, up 17%), Colombia (35%, up 2%) and Azerbaijan (35%).
Eastern European countries Croatia (57%, unchanged), Bosnia-Herzegovina (54%, up 10%) are the countries most likely to expect 2010 to be characterised by economic difficulty closely followed by Israel (54%), France (51%) and fellow Eastern European country Bulgaria (51%, down 3%).
Majorities of New Zealanders (65%, up 31%) and Australians (56%, up 20%) expect 2010 to be the same economically as 2009 or don’t know. However, more Australians (27%, up 15%) and New Zealanders (21%, up 10%) expect 2010 to be a year of economic prosperity than those Australians (17%, down a large 35%) and New Zealanders (14%, down an even larger 41%) that expect 2010 to be a year of economic difficulty.
|
|
Economic Expectations for the Year……..
|
|
|
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
|
|
Prosperity
|
Difficulty
|
Prosperity
|
Difficulty
|
Prosperity
|
Difficulty
|
Prosperity
|
Difficulty
|
Prosperity
|
Difficulty
|
Prosperity
|
Same/
Don’t know
|
Difficulty
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Brazil
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
65
|
26
|
9
|
|
China
|
56
|
9
|
64
|
8
|
65
|
5
|
*
|
*
|
41
|
25
|
49
|
33
|
18
|
|
Venezuela
|
43
|
26
|
58
|
23
|
62
|
16
|
57
|
20
|
22
|
45
|
42
|
38
|
20
|
|
Iraq
|
*
|
*
|
42
|
12
|
28
|
40
|
26
|
25
|
*
|
*
|
39
|
42
|
19
|
|
Afghanistan
|
*
|
*
|
45
|
14
|
36
|
17
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
39
|
40
|
21
|
|
Russia +
|
27
|
26
|
18
|
26
|
26
|
17
|
21
|
19
|
18
|
57
|
35
|
36
|
29
|
|
Azerbaijan
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
35
|
35
|
30
|
|
Colombia
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
47
|
16
|
33
|
34
|
35
|
35
|
30
|
|
Iceland
|
14
|
17
|
9
|
21
|
12
|
15
|
6
|
44
|
3
|
91
|
34
|
38
|
28
|
|
Bahrain
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
25
|
40
|
31
|
35
|
34
|
|
Canada
|
25
|
16
|
22
|
20
|
19
|
19
|
32
|
22
|
11
|
53
|
28
|
42
|
30
|
|
USA
|
31
|
24
|
21
|
31
|
21
|
26
|
15
|
45
|
17
|
54
|
28
|
40
|
32
|
|
Australia
|
23
|
18
|
16
|
29
|
11
|
31
|
16
|
30
|
12
|
52
|
27
|
56
|
17
|
|
Ecuador
|
17
|
38
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
27
|
36
|
37
|
|
South Korea
|
9
|
62
|
20
|
36
|
10
|
51
|
*
|
*
|
8
|
64
|
26
|
55
|
19
|
|
Macedonia
|
26
|
36
|
34
|
32
|
34
|
20
|
33
|
27
|
27
|
31
|
25
|
51
|
24
|
|
New Zealand
|
17
|
12
|
12
|
26
|
16
|
13
|
18
|
25
|
11
|
55
|
21
|
65
|
14
|
|
Pakistan
|
40
|
17
|
29
|
26
|
31
|
20
|
27
|
30
|
9
|
47
|
20
|
52
|
28
|
|
Albania
|
35
|
22
|
33
|
34
|
*
|
*
|
17
|
34
|
*
|
*
|
18
|
39
|
43
|
|
Malaysia
|
60
|
12
|
41
|
16
|
38
|
23
|
32
|
28
|
*
|
*
|
16
|
56
|
28
|
|
Bosnia-Herzegovina
|
20
|
38
|
20
|
56
|
32
|
29
|
34
|
36
|
30
|
44
|
16
|
30
|
54
|
|
Japan
|
10
|
29
|
16
|
20
|
14
|
14
|
8
|
39
|
4
|
59
|
13
|
60
|
27
|
|
Romania
|
32
|
16
|
18
|
30
|
19
|
37
|
21
|
27
|
10
|
50
|
13
|
37
|
50
|
|
Bulgaria
|
12
|
23
|
8
|
39
|
14
|
45
|
12
|
41
|
7
|
54
|
13
|
36
|
51
|
|
United Kingdom
|
13
|
26
|
16
|
27
|
17
|
24
|
15
|
34
|
6
|
67
|
12
|
58
|
30
|
|
Israel
|
31
|
22
|
37
|
23
|
21
|
20
|
25
|
32
|
*
|
*
|
12
|
34
|
54
|
|
Czech Republic
|
15
|
35
|
19
|
31
|
16
|
33
|
9
|
52
|
7
|
50
|
11
|
47
|
42
|
|
Italy
|
11
|
37
|
9
|
39
|
9
|
44
|
6
|
52
|
3
|
62
|
10
|
49
|
41
|
|
Germany #
|
6
|
48
|
15
|
40
|
15
|
36
|
14
|
39
|
3
|
74
|
10
|
40
|
50
|
|
Serbia †
|
11
|
50
|
8
|
47
|
23
|
27
|
12
|
34
|
10
|
61
|
9
|
41
|
50
|
|
France
|
17
|
33
|
12
|
40
|
22
|
24
|
17
|
41
|
*
|
*
|
9
|
40
|
51
|
|
Croatia
|
*
|
*
|
26
|
34
|
23
|
32
|
22
|
25
|
8
|
57
|
9
|
34
|
57
|
|
Austria
|
4
|
34
|
*
|
*
|
6
|
24
|
9
|
21
|
3
|
72
|
8
|
59
|
33
|
*Not surveyed. + U.S.S.R. surveyed prior to 1992. # West Germany surveyed until 1989 and United Germany surveyed since 1990. † Yugoslavia surveyed in 1997 and 2002
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size
|
Percentage Estimate
|
|
|
40%-60%
|
25% or 75%
|
10% or 90%
|
5% or 95%
|
|
500
|
±4.5
|
±3.9
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
|
1,000
|
±3.2
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
±1.4
|
|
50,000
|
±0.4
|
±0.4
|
±0.3
|
±0.2
|
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Home +61 3 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 Home +61 3 9817 3066
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.