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Gillard (58%) clearly preferred over Abbott (29%) as ‘Better PM’ More Approve of Gillard’s ‘Handling of Job’ (58%) than Abbott’s (42%)

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two days July 20-21, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 719 electors.

New Prime Minister Julia Gillard (58%, up 9% since June 25-28, 2010) is clearly preferred over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (29%, down 5%) as the ‘Better Prime Minister’ by Australian electors according to this special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the past two days, July 20-21, 2010.

Analysis by gender shows Australian women clearly prefer Gillard (62%, up 8%) over Abbott (22%, down 6%), while amongst men Gillard (54%, up 11%) is preferred over Abbott (36%, down 4%) as Better PM.

Of Australian electors 58%, (up 18%)approve of the way Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister — this is up 22% up on Kevin Rudd’s approval for May 12/13, 2010. Now 26% (up 2%) disapprove of Julia Gillard and 16% (down 20%) can’t say.

Analysis by gender shows Australian women giving Gillard higher approval (63%, up 19%) than men (52%, up 15%) for her handling of the job as Prime Minister and lower disapproval (22%, unchanged) compared to men (30%, up 4%).

Approval of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott is 42%, (down 6%) and disapproval of Abbott is 48%, (up 7%) and 10% (down 1%) of electors can’t say.

Analysis by gender again shows a clear split with a majority of Australian men (50%, down 3%) approving of Abbott’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader compared to 43%, (up 5%) that disapprove whilst Australian women are more likely to disapprove of Abbott’s job performance — 36%, (down 8% approve and 52, (up 8%) disapprove.

 

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

 

Rudd v Turnbull

Rudd v Abbott

Gillard v Abbott

 

Dec 17/18,

2008

May 20/21,

2009

July 1/2,

2009

Oct 7/8,

2009

Dec 2/3,

2009

May 4/5,

2010

May 12/13,

2010

June 25-28,

2010

July 20/21

2010

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Gillard

69

60.5

70

69

60

53

49

49

58

Abbott

20

26.5

20

18

25

32

37

34

29

Gillard lead

49

34

50

51

35

21

12

15

29

Other / Can’t say

11

13

10

13

15

15

14

17

13

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

 

Gary Morgan says:

“Prime Minister Julia Gillard (58%, up 9% since June 25-28, 2010) has substantially increased her lead as the ‘Better PM’ over Opposition Leader Tony Abbott (29%, down 9%) over the three weeks since she took the Prime Ministership in a clean coup against former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

“Gillard’s handling of the job has also risen substantially in the eyes of electors with 58% (up 18%) approving of Gillard’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to only 26% (up 2%) that disapprove, while those that can’t say has fallen significantly (16%, down 20%).

“The news is not so good for Opposition Leader Tony Abbott with a falling 42% (down 6%) of Australians approving of his handling of the job as Opposition Leader compared to 48% (up 7%) that disapprove and only 10% (down 1%) that can’t say.

“With the first week of the Federal Election campaign focusing heavily on the negatives of the Leaders special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research conducted with this poll reveals what worries electors don’t like about both leaders.

“For Gillard — electors are worried about how she got the job saying such things as she’s “Untrustworthy,” and she “Stabs people in the back,” “She’s sneaky,” and “I don’t approve of how she came into power,” and “She’ hasn’t been open with the public and hasn’t even told us how she ousted Kevin Rudd,” and also “She’s an atheist leader and I think she’s a communist,” - “An extreme socialist.”

“Electors who disapprove of Tony Abbott say a range of things that worry them about the Opposition Leader, including — “He’s extreme to the right,” and “He’s narrow-minded and his views are based on Christian principles only,” and that “He’s an arrogant Catholic man telling women what to do,” and that he’s “Bigoted and right-wing,” and a “Self horn-blowing politician.”

“This special qualitative research shows there are clearly many electors out there with strong views against both of the leaders heading towards the Federal Election next month.”

 

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two days July 20-21, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross section of 719 electors.

 

Better Prime Minister: Gillard v Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Gillard and Mr. Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Ms. Gillard or Mr. Abbott?”

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 20/21,

2010

ALP

Lib

Nat#

TheGreens

FamilyFirst#

Ind/Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Gillard

58

92

15

56

82

36

53

Abbott

29

3

72

30

5

43

13

Gillard lead

29

89

(57)

26

77

(7)

40

Other / Neither

13

5

13

14

13

21

34

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

July 20/21,

2010

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Gillard

58

54

62

64

66

59

53

Abbott

29

36

22

28

20

29

32

Gillard lead

29

18

40

36

46

30

21

Other / Neither

13

10

16

8

14

12

15

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research

Electors who disapproved of Prime Minister Julia Gillard were asked: “What worries you about Julia Gillard?”

“She’s untrustworthy and she’s not capable of representing Australians at home and overseas.”

“Well, I’m worried about how she took over Kevin Rudd’s job.”

“She’s sneaky.”

“I don’t think she’s qualified, the way she got the job.”

“She’s not a very trusting politician.”

“The fact she ousted her Prime Minister.”

“She was not actually elected.”

“She’s dishonest and just doing the same thing as Kevin Rudd.”

“I don’t approve of how she came into power.”

“I just didn’t like the way she came into office.”

“She stabbed people in the back to get into power.”

“She was supposed to be Rudd’s assistant and she turned him down and threw him out.”

 

Electors who disapproved of Opposition Leader Tony Abbott were asked: “What worries you about Tony Abbott?”

“His religious beliefs.”

“He’s got crazy eyes.”

“He’s extreme to the right.”

“He’s an egotistical self serving horn-blowing politician and arrogant.”

“His anti-abortion stance and he’s too much of a catholic fundamentalist.”

“Look, I’m a Liberal voter, but I don’t like him as he’s an arrogant Catholic man telling women what to do.”

“He’s a loose cannon and very slippery when you listen to him talking. I just don’t trust him.”

“I don’t hear anything sensible coming out of his mouth.”

“His inconsistencies.”

“He talks too much and there’s no action.”

“He has no policies, no substantial beneficial policies.”

 

Approval of Leaders — Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

Prime Minister: Julia Gillard (Formerly Kevin Rudd)

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Gillard is handling her job as Prime Minister?”

 

Prime Minister Rudd

Prime Minister Gillard

 

July 1/2,

2009

Oct 7/8,

2009

Dec 2/3,

2009

Jan 13/14,

2010

May 4/5,

2010

May 12/13,

2010

June 25-28,

2010

July 20/21,

2010

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

63

66

53

50

42

36

40

58

Disapprove

29

24

36

35

49

55

24

26

Approve - Disapprove

34

42

17

15

(7)

(19)

16

32

Can’t say

8

10

11

15

9

9

36

16

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 20/21,

2010

ALP

Lib

Nat#

The

Greens

Family

First#

Ind/

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

58

84

30

25

69

48

40

Disapprove

26

6

52

34

19

31

30

Approve - Disapprove

32

78

(22)

(9)

50

17

10

Can’t say

16

10

18

41

12

21

30

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

July 20/21,

2010

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

58

52

63

63

59

58

55

Disapprove

26

30

22

22

22

27

29

Approve - Disapprove

32

22

41

41

37

31

26

Can’t say

16

18

15

15

19

15

16

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Tony Abbott

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Abbott is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

 

Malcolm Turnbull

as Opposition Leader

Tony Abbott

as Opposition Leader

 

July 1/2,

2009

Oct. 7/8,

2009

Dec 2/3,

2009

Jan 13/14,

2010

May 4/5,

2010

May 12/13,

2010

June 25-28,

2010

July 20/21,

2010

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

25

29

34

41

40.5

44

48

42

Disapprove

62.5

56

27

32

41.5

46

41

48

Approve - Disapprove

(37.5)

(27)

7

9

(1)

(2)

7

(6)

Can’t say

12.5

15

39

27

18

10

11

10

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

July 20/21,

2010

ALP

Lib

Nat#

The

Greens

Family

First#

Ind/

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

42

22

74

58

25

39

38

Disapprove

48

70

16

20

73

40

49

Approve - Disapprove

(6)

(48)

58

38

(48)

 (1)

(11)

Can’t say

10

8

10

22

2

21

13

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

July 20/21,

2010

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

42

50

36

46

39

41

43

Disapprove

48

43

52

42

51

49

47

Approve - Disapprove

(6)

7

(16)

4

(12)

(8)

(4)

Can’t say

10

7

12

12

10

10

10

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:  Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

 

 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.