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L-NP (55.5%) with large winning lead over ALP (44.5%)

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, April 2/3, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 966 electors.

The latest Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted last  weekend, April 2/3, 2011, shows the L-NP (55.5%, up 2% from the Face-to-Face Morgan Poll conducted on March 26/27, 2011) now has a big lead over the ALP (44.5%, down 2%) on a Two-Party preferred basis.

The L-NP primary vote is 48% (up 1%), well ahead of the ALP 36.5% (up 1%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 9.5% (down 2%) and Others/ Independents 6% (unchanged).

If a Federal election were held today the L-NP would easily win.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 107.5 (down 1pt) with 44.5% of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ while 37% say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.

The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of April 2/3, 2011, was 115.6, down 2pts from March 26/27, 2011.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%) with a growing lead over the Government and confirms the trend of recent Morgan Polls showing a swing back to the L-NP after international issues had given the Gillard Government what turned out to be a short-lived ‘bounce.’

“Perhaps most concerning for Prime Minister Julia Gillard is the speculation this week that former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is once again interested in the leadership of the ALP. A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted in March showed that Rudd (28%) is the preferred ALP Leader ahead of Gillard (25%) — the first time Rudd has headed Gillard since Gillard became Prime Minister.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were held — which party would receive your first preference?”

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, April 2/3, 2011, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 966 electors.

*Telephone Morgan Polls are conducted using the same methodologies used by other major telephone polls — Nielsen, Newspoll, Galaxy. In analysing telephone Morgan Poll results, it is worth noting that telephone polls are good at capturing the response to current events and have typically been biased towards the L-NP, obtain a higher figure for Minor parties and Independents and  more ‘responsive’ to current events.

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.1

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0

 

During the period

  • Prime Minister Julia Gillard warns of tough Federal Budget
    Prime Minister Julia Gillard has warned next month's Federal Budget will be painful as the Government makes cutbacks in order to return to surplus by fiscal year 2012/2013.

  • New New South Wales Premier Barry O'Farrell hails new political landscape
    New South Wales premier-elect Barry O'Farrell is basking in the Coalition's huge majority after last week’s historic election win and has promised to fix the state's problems. The L-NP won with a record proportion of seats in the NSW Parliament and consigned the ALP to its worst ever result in NSW.

  • Bob Brown hits back in brawl with Prime Minister Julia Gillard
    Greens Leader Bob Brown has launched a no-holds-barred attack on Prime Minister Julia Gillard, accusing her of "unfortunate and gratuitous" insults against the Greens which will "come back to bite her."

  • Treasury releases Carbon Tax cost estimates
    The Federal Treasury estimates a $30 per tonne carbon price would cost the average household more than $860 per year.

  • East Timor asylum solution is a 'dead horse'
    Opposition Immigration spokesman Scott Morrison says the Federal Government needs to stop embarrassing itself by pushing its East Timor solution for processing asylum seekers.

  • Gaddafi forces snatch back Ras Lanuf
    Loyalist forces have overrun the Libyan oil town of Ras Lanuf, scattering outgunned rebels as world powers debated arming the rag-tag band of fighters seeking to oust Muammar Gaddafi.

  • New estate planned for Yarraville in Victoria
    Victorian State Planning Minister Matthew Guy says more than 1,000 new homes will be built when an industrial site in Melbourne's inner-west is redeveloped.

  • Radioactive water seeps from nuke plant
    Highly radioactive water and plutonium has been found for the first time outside Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear plant as it has been confirmed that water used to cool the plants has been leaking out into the wider ocean.

  • Radiation in sea off Japan hits new high
    The level of radioactive iodine in the sea off Japan's disaster-hit Fukushima nuclear plant has soared to its highest reading yet at 4,385 times the legal limit, the plant operator said.

  • Crews 'facing 100-year battle' at Fukushima
    A nuclear expert has warned that it might be 100 years before melting fuel rods can be safely removed from Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant.

 

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

     

The

Family

Ind./

 

ALP

L-NP

Greens

First#*

Others

RECENT ELECTION RESULTS

%

%

%

%

%

Election March 2, 1996
38.8
47.3 (8.6)
1.7
-
12.2
Election October 3^, 1998
40.1
39.5 (5.3)
2.1
-
18.3
Election November 10, 2001
37.8
43 (5.6)
4.4
-
13.8
Election October 9, 2004
37.6
46.4 (5.9)
7.2
2.0
6.8
Election November 24, 2007
43.4
42.1 (5.9)
7.8
2.0
4.7
Election, August 21, 2010 38.0 43.6 (3.7) 11.8 2.3 4.3

MORGAN POLL

         
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS)
40.5 44.5 10 ** 5
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)
36 40 (3) 13 2 9
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face)
40.5 39.5 (4) 15 2 3
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone)
35.5 42.5 (3) 15 2.5 4.5
September 18/19, 2010 (Face)
40.5 41 (4.5) 13 2 3.5
October 2/3, 2010 (Face)
44 38.5 (3) 12 2 3.5
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face)
43 40.5 (3) 10.5 2.5 3.5
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face)
43 40.5 (4) 10.5 1.5 4.5
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face)
41 40 (4) 12 2.5 4.5
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face)
40.5 42 (3.5) 12 1.5 4
December 4/5, 2010 (Face)
40.5 40.5 (4.5) 13.5 1.5 4
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone)
31 46 (2) 13.5 2 7.5
December 11/12, 2010 (Face)
38 43 (5) 13.5 1.5 4
January 8/9, 2011 (Face)
38.5 44 (5.5) 13 1.5 3
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face)
40.5 41.5 (4) 11.5 2 4.5
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone)
35 42.5 (1.5) 12 3 7.5
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face)
39 43 (5) 12.5 1.5 4
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face)
39.5 43 (3) 11.5 2 4
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone)
36 45.5 (3.5) 9.5 1.5 7.5
           
(February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax
           
February 26/27, 2011 (Face)
41 41 (4) 11.5 1 5.5
March 5/6, 2011 (Face)
37 46.5 (5) 9.5 1 6
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)
39 44 (4.5) 10.5 1 5.5
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone)
31.5 47.5 (1.5) 10 1.5 9.5
March 12/13, 2011 (Face)
38 44.5 (4.5) 11.5 1.5 4.5
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone)
35.5 42.5 (3) 12 1.5 8.5
March 19/20, 2011 (Face)
39.5 40 (3) 12.5 2 6
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone)
34.5 47 (2.5) 10 1 7.5
March 26/27, 2011 (Face)
35.5 47 (6) 11.5 1.5 4.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)
37.5 43.5 (4.5) 12 1.5 5.5
April 2/3, 2011 (Face)
36.5 48 (6) 9.5 2 4

Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

**Family First were not reported in the SMS Morgan Poll of August 22/23, 2010.

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

 
ALP
L-NP
   
 
%
%    
Election, March 2, 1996
46.4
53.6
   
Election, October 3^, 1998
51
49
   
Election, November 10, 2001
49
51
   
Election, October 9, 2004
47.3
52.7
   
Election, November 24, 2007
52.7
47.3
   
Election, August 21, 2010
50.1 49.9    

 

Preferences distributed

by how electors

say they will vote

Preferences distributed

by how electors voted

at the 2010 election

  % % % %
MORGAN POLL
ALP
L-NP
ALP
L-NP
August 22/23, 2010 (SMS)
50.5 49.5 50.5 49.5
August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)
51.5 48.5 51 49
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face)
54.5 45.5 54.5 45.5
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone)
52 48 50.5 49.5
September 18/19, 2010 (Face)
54 46 53.5 46.5
October 2/3, 2010 (Face)
56.5 43.5 55.5 44.5
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face)
55 45 54 46
October 23/24, 30/31, 2010 (Face)
54 46 54 46
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face)
54.5 45.5 54 46
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face)
52.5 47.5 52.5 47.5
December 4/5, 2010 (Face)
52.5 47.5 53 47
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone)
46 54 45.5 54.5
December 11/12, 2010 (Face)
48.5 51.5 50 50
January 8/9, 2011 (Face)
50 50 50.5 49.5
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face)
52 48 52.5 47.5
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone)
49.5 50.5 49 51
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011(Face)
50 50 51.5 48.5
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face)
49.5 50.5 51 49
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone)
48.5 51.5 47 53
         
(February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax
         
February 26/27, 2011 (Face)
51.5 48.5 53.5 46.5
March 5/6, 2011 (Face)
46 54 48 52
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)
48.5 51.5 50 50
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone)
44.5 55.5 44 56
March 12/13, 2011 (Face)
48.5 51.5 49.5 50.5
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone)
49.5 50.5 49 51
March 19/20, 2011 (Face)
52 48 52.5 47.5
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone)
45.5 54.5 46 54
March 26/27, 2011 (Face)
46.5 53.5 47 53
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)
49 51 49.5 50.5
April 2/3, 2011 (Face)
44.5 55.5 46.5 53.5

^ 1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Australian Federal Voting Intention - Two Party Preferred

 

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win

ALP

L-NP

Can't Say

 

%

%

%

August 25/26, 2010 (Phone)
33.5 42 24.5
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2010 (Face)
43 37.5 19.5
September 15/16, 2010 (Phone)
34 42.5 23.5
September 18/19, 2010 (Face)
38.5 43.5 18
October 2/3, 2010 (Face)
41 40 19
October 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face)
43 41.5 15.5
October 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face)
41.5 42 16.5
November 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face)
42 41.5 16.5
November 20/21 & 27/28, 2010 (Face)
39 45 16
December 4/5, 2010 (Face)
30.5 52.5 17
December 8-12, 2010 (Phone)
31.5 56.5 12
December 11/12, 2010 (Face)
32.5 53 14.5
January 8/9, 2011 (Face)
35.5 56 8.5
January 15/16 & 22/23, 2011 (Face)
38.5 49 12.5
February 1-3, 2011 (Phone)
37 48.5 14.5
January 29/30 & February 5/6, 2011 (Face)
37.5 52 10.5
February 12/13 & 19/20, 2011 (Face)
41.5 47.5 11
February 21-23, 2011 (Phone)
35 52.5 12.5
       
(February 24, 2011) - Prime Minister Julia Gillard reintroduces the prospect of a carbon tax
       
February 26/27, 2011 (Face)
41 46.5 12.5
March 5/6, 2011 (Face)
34.5 53 12.5
February 26/27 & March 5/6, 2011 (Face)
37.5 50 12.5
March 8-10, 2011 (Phone)
28.5 58 13.5
March 12/13, 2011 (Face)
37 54 9
March 16/17, 2011 (Phone)
30.5 57 12.5
March 19/20, 2011 (Face)
37 51.5 11.5
March 22-24, 2011 (Phone)
37 52.5 10.5
March 26/27, 2011 (Face)
32.5 57 10.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2011 (Face) (TOTAL)
34.5 54.5 11
April 2/3, 2011 (Face)
27.5 62.5 10

 

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)

 

June

25-28

June 26/27

& July 3/4

July

10/11

July

17/18

July

20/21

July

24/25

July

27/28

July 31/

Aug 1

Aug

3

Aug

7/8

Aug

14

Aug

14/15

Aug

18/19

Aug

25/26

Aug 28/29

& Sep 4/5

  Phone Face Face Face Phone Face Phone Face Phone Face Phone Face Phone Phone Face
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

54.5 55.5 54.5 52 54.5 51 51.5 52 50 54 51 53 42.5 45 51

Wrong direction

29.5 24.5 23.5 28.5 32.5 27 31 28 34.5 27.5 35 28 38.5 33 25

Roy Morgan GCR*

125 131 131 123.5 122 124 120.5 124 115.5 126.5 116 125 104 112 126

Can’t say

16 20 22 19.5 13 22 17.5 20 15.5 18.5 14 19 19 22 24

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)

 

Sep

15/16

Sep

18/19

Oct

2/3

Oct 9/10

& 16/17

Oct 23/24

& 30/31

Nov 6/7

& 13/14

Nov 20/21

& 27/28

Dec

4/5

Dec

8-12

Dec

11/12

Jan

8/9

Jan 15/16

& 22/23

Feb

1-3

Jan 29/30 & Feb 5/6

Feb 12/13

& 19/20

Feb

21-23

  Phone Face Face Face Face Face Face Face Phone Face Face Face Phone Face Face Phone
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

50 53.5 53.5 54 54 52 52.5 52 52.5 49 53 57 53.5 54 52 57

Wrong direction

31 25.5 28 26.5 26 29 27.5 30.5 33.5 30.5 29.5 26.5 31 29 29.5 29.5

Roy Morgan GCR*

119 128 125.5 127.5 128 123 125 121.5 119 118.5 123.5 130.5 122.5 125 122.5 127.5

Can’t say

19 21 18.5 19.5 20 19 20 17.5 14 20.5 17.5 16.5 15.5 17 18.5 13.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)

 

Feb 26/27

& Mar 5/6

Mar

8-10

Mar

12/13

Mar

16/17

Mar

19/20

Mar

22-24

Mar

26/27

Mar 19/20

& 26/27

Apr

2/3

           
  Face Phone Face Phone Face Phone Face Face Face            
  % % % % % % % % %            

Right direction

49 53.5 52.5 52.5 52.5 44.5 45.5 49 44.5            

Wrong direction

36 33.5 29.5 34.5 33.5 43.5 37 35.5 37            

Roy Morgan GCR*

113 120 123 118 119 101 108.5 113.5 107.5            

Can’t say

15 13 18 13 14 12 17.5 15.5 18.5            

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100            

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1

 

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

 

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

 

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.