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MORGAN POLL SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE Labor still set to win Popular Vote (51% cf. 49%) But ‘Hung Parliament’ Still Most Likely Outcome

This special telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two nights, August 18/19, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,872 electors. After the recontacts of undecided voters the recalculated can’t say is 4.5% of electors that did not name a party.

Last night the Roy Morgan recontacted 187 ‘undecided’ and Green voters from the 7News Morgan Poll of 1,872 electors conducted on the evenings of Wednesday and Thursday August 18/19, 2010. Just over half the ‘undecided’ voters gave a preference marginally favouring the L-NP on a Two-Party preferred basis. Of Green voters, more than 80% confirmed their intention to vote Green, the others split 2:1 in favour of the L-NP on a Two-Party preferred basis. Taking these factors into account the primary voting intention is recalculated as ALP 39%, L-NP 42.5%; Greens 11.5% and Independents/ Others 7%. However the Two-Party preferred vote is unchanged at 51% cf. 49% according to the Morgan Poll update conducted last night (August 20, 2010).

7News Morgan Poll (August 18/19, 2010)

FIRST PREFERENCE

2007

Federal election

August 18/19,

2010

August 20,

2010

Swing since 2007

Federal election

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

43.4

38

39

-4.4

LIB (NP)

42.1 (5.5)

42 (3)

42.5

+0.4

GREEN

7.8

13

11.5

+3.7

INDEPENDENTS/ OTHERS

6.7

7

7

+0.3

TOTAL

100

100

100

 

 

TWO PARTY PREFERRED

2007

Federal election

August 18/19,

2010

August 20,

2010

Swing since 2007

Federal election

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

52.7

51

51

-1.7

L-NP

47.3

49

49

+1.7

TOTAL

100

100

100

 

 

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

2007 Federal

election

August 18/19,

2010

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

52.7

51

49.5

53

60.5

60

54

44

L-NP

47.3

49

50.5

47

39.5

40

46

56

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Analysis by State

 

 

Electors 18+

Analysis by State

 

2007 Federal

election

August 18/19,

2010

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

52.7

51

50.5

55

46

45.5

54

67.5

L-NP

47.3

49

49.5

45

54

54.5

46

32.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Swing by State

 

1.7% to L-NP

3.2% to L-NP

0.7% to ALP

4.4% to L-NP

1.2% to L-NP

1.6% to ALP

11.3% to ALP

Greens % vote

7.8

13

11.5

16

14

13

10.5

19.5

Estimated Greens % vote update — August 20, 2010

 

11.5

11

14

12.5

11.5

10.5

19.5

 

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 104.0pts (down 12pts since the telephone Morgan Poll conducted last Saturday August 14, 2010), with 42.5% (down 8.5%) of Australians confident that Australia is ‘heading in the right direction,’ compared to 38.5% (up 3.5%) that say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’ This is the lowest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating ever recorded. The latest weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for the weekend of August 14/15, 2010 fell 4.4pts to 124.6.

 

Gary Morgan says:

“On election eve the Morgan Poll shows that despite the ALP winning the popular vote — with a reduced majority (51%, down 1.7%) in national vote, — the ALP is likely to lose at least 10 seats (another 4 seats are in the balance — Longman, Greenway, Lindsay and Brand) — creating a hung Parliament with the balance of power in the hands of Independents and Greens.

“Labor’s primary vote is substantially lower than at the previous Federal election (39%, down 4.4%) so Green preferences are crucial — and given the ‘soft’ nature of the Green vote an L-NP win is not out of the question.

“The Green vote has come back, although still at a record high (11.5%). This may be real — a real reflection of the electorate’s response to neither major party supporting an Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and both parties taking a strong stand on illegal ‘boat people.’ And as we said yesterday there is a strong likelihood that the Green vote will not be as strong on Election Day.

“Non-major parties typically do not poll as well on the day.  In the UK, the Liberal Democrats vote which at times looked like polling as high as 35% actually polled only 23% in the election.

 “We have assumed L-NP held seats like Macarthur, Gilmore, Herbert, Swan and Dickson that have become notionally ALP under the redistributions, will be held by their Coalition local member.

“There are always outliers — seats that swing differently to the predicted. In Victoria where the Green vote is now 14%, the seats to watch are Deakin and Corangamite (Labor held marginal seats that might go to the L-NP) and McMillan and La Trobe (Liberal held marginal seats that might go to the ALP if there is any swing to the ALP in Victoria).

“In Western Australia — the city and country swings are very different so Hasluck and Brand should be watched — they could go either way.

 “After the Morgan Poll recontacts a relatively low 4.5% of electors are still undecided about how they will vote at the election today.”

 

Electors were asked: “In the Federal Election being held on Saturday, which party will receive your FIRST preference - would it be...?”

This special telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two nights, August 18/19, 2010, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,872 electors. After the recontacts of undecided voters the recalculated can’t say is 4.5% of electors that did not name a party.

Later today (Saturday August 21, 2010) the Morgan Poll is conducting an Australia-wide Election Day survey including extra interviews in some of the Key Marginal Seats. The results will be released during the 7 News Election coverage.


 

PolliGraph Results

The following are the Roy Morgan PolliGraph electors’ reactions to the Brisbane ‘Town Hall debates’ released on Channel 7 News last night and today in Crikey.

Julia Gillard: /graphics/Reactor/PeoplesForum/GillardForumClosing.wmv

Tony Abbott: /graphics/Reactor/PeoplesForum/AbbottForumClosing.wmv

 

Morgan Poll Voting Trend (July 27/28 — August 20, 2010)

 

Phone

Face-to-Face

Phone

Face-to-Face

Phone

Face-to-Face

Phone

Morgan Poll Update

 

July
27/28

July 31/
August 1

August
3

August
7/8

August
14

August
14/15

August
18/19

August
20

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

53

53

50

57.5

51

52

51

51

L-NP

47

47

50

42.5

49

48

49

49

ALP Lead

6%

6%

-

15%

2%

4%

2%

2%

 

 

SEAT BY SEAT ANALYSIS

 

NEW SOUTH WALES (48 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(21-22)

ALP Gain

(0-1)

L-NP Hold

(18-19)

L-NP Gain

(5-6)

Independents

(2)

Banks

Greenway*

Berowra

Bennelong

Lyne

Barton

 

Bradfield

Dobell

New England

Blaxland

 

Calare

Macquarie

 

Charlton

 

Cook

Page

 

Chifley

 

Cowper

Robertson

 

Cunningham

 

Farrer

Lindsay*

 

Eden-Monaro

 

Gilmore

 

 

Fowler

 

Hughes

   

Grayndler

 

Hume

   

Hunter

 

Macarthur

   

Kingsford Smith

 

Mackellar

   

McMahon

 

Mitchell

   

Newcastle

 

North Sydney

   

Parramatta

 

Parkes

   

Reid

 

Paterson

   

Richmond

 

Riverina

   

Shortland

 

Warringah

   

Sydney

 

Wentworth

   

Throsby

 

Greenway*

   

Watson

       

Werriwa

       

Lindsay*

       

*Seats marked with an asterix (Greenway & Lindsay) are very close and could go either way — to the ALP or L-NP.

VICTORIA (37 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(20)

ALP Gain

(2)

Greens Gain

(1)

L-NP Hold

(14)

L-NP Gain

(0)

Ballarat

La Trobe

Melbourne

Aston

 

Batman

McEwen

 

Casey

 

Bendigo

   

Dunkley

 

Bruce

   

Flinders

 

Calwell

   

Gippsland

 

Chisholm

   

Goldstein

 

Corangamite

   

Higgins

 

Corio

   

Indi

 

Deakin

   

Kooyong

 

Gellibrand

   

Mallee

 

Gorton

   

McMillan

 

Holt

   

Menzies

 

Hotham

   

Murray

 

Isaacs

   

Wannon

 

Jagajaga

       

Lalor

       

Maribyrnong

       

Melbourne Ports

       

Scullin

       

Wills

       

 

QUEENSLAND (30 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(10-11)

ALP Gain

(0)

LNP Hold

(14)

LNP Gain

(4-5)

Independents

(1)

Blair

 

Bowman

Dawson

Kennedy

Bonner

 

Dickson

Flynn

 

Brisbane

 

Fadden

Forde

 

Capricornia

 

Fairfax

Leichhardt

 

Griffith

 

Fisher

Longman*

 

Lilley

 

Groom

   

Moreton

 

Herbert

   

Oxley

 

Hinkler

   

Petrie

 

Maranoa

   

Rankin

 

McPherson

   

Longman*

 

Moncrieff

   
   

Ryan

   
   

Wide Bay

   
   

Wright

   

*Seats marked with an asterix (Longman) are very close and could go either way — to the ALP or LNP.

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA (15 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(2-3)

ALP Gain

(0)

L-NP Hold

(11)

L-NP Gain

(1-2)

Fremantle

 

Canning

Hasluck

Perth

 

Cowan

Brand*

Brand*

 

Curtin

 
   

Durack

 
   

Forrest

 
   

Moore

 
   

O'Connor

 
   

Pearce

 
   

Stirling

 
   

Swan

 
   

Tangney

 

*Seats marked with an asterix (Brand) are very close and could go either way — to the ALP or L-NP.

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA (11 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(6)

ALP Gain

(0-1)

L-NP Hold

(4-5)

L-NP Gain

(0)

Adelaide

Sturt*

Barker

 

Hindmarsh

 

Boothby

 

Kingston

 

Grey

 

Makin

 

Mayo

 

Port Adelaide

 

Sturt*

 

Wakefield

     

*Seats marked with an asterix (Sturt) are very close and could go either way — to the ALP or L-NP.

 

TASMANIA (5 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(5)

ALP Gain

(0)

L-NP Hold

(0)

L-NP Gain

(0)

In the Balance

(0)

Bass

       

Braddon

       

Denison

       

Franklin

       

Lyons

       

 

NORTHERN TERRITORY (2 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(1)

ALP Gain

(0)

L-NP Hold

(0)

L-NP Gain

(1)

In the Balance

(0)

Lingiari

   

Solomon

 

 

AUSTRALIAN CAPITAL TERRITORY (2 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(2)

ALP Gain

(0)

L-NP Hold

(0)

L-NP Gain

(0)

In the Balance

(0)

Canberra

       

Fraser

       

 

OVERALL (150 SEATS)

ALP Hold

(67-70)

ALP Gain

(2-4)

L-NP Hold

(61-63)

L-NP Gain

(11-14)

Independents

(3)

Greens Gain

(1)

 

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

 

During the period:

  • Abbott calls for end to Labor's 'gutless spin'
    Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has officially launched the Coalition's election campaign by calling on supporters to "bury an era of gutless spin" and remove Labor from office.
  • Coalition unveils $6b broadband plan
    The Coalition has promised more than $6 billion to improve internet broadband services for Australians if it is elected to government.
  • Gillard to take $2b rail promise to RSL forum
    Prime Minister Julia Gillard will go into a community forum tonight armed with a $2.1 billion promise to fix rail services in the key election battleground of Western Sydney.
  • Labor wants sole national oil and gas regulator
    Resources Minister Martin Ferguson says Labor will introduce legislation for a single national oil and gas regulator as a matter of priority, if it is re-elected.
  • PM accused of stealing welfare policies
    The Federal Opposition has accused Prime Minister Julia Gillard of stealing its welfare policies.
  • Roxon, Dutton trade blows in health debate
    Federal Health Minister Nicola Roxon has rejected the Coalition's attack on the Government's approach to mental health policy.
  • Latham bails Abbott up
    Former Labor leader Mark Latham has been heckled by veterans after turning up at a Tony Abbott campaign stop at a Sydney RSL today.
  • Coalition to take costings to third party
    The Opposition has declared it will have its election policies tested by a third party and publicly released next week if a Treasury leak is not resolved.
  • Abbott to unveil $120m for school tech grants
    A technology fund for schools will be the cornerstone of the Coalition's education and skills training policy which is set to be announced in Victoria today.
  • Labor to lift apprentice cash bonuses
    Prime Minister Julia Gillard will announce increased cash bonuses for apprentices who finish their training as she campaigns in Sydney today.
  • Labor to launch carbon credit scheme for farmers
    The Federal Government will today outline a plan to help farmers earn money for selling carbon credits on the international market.
  • Australian soldier killed in Afghanistan
    The Defence Force has announced that an Australian soldier has been killed in Afghanistan, making the latest casualty the 18th Australian death since the war began.

 

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

     

The

Family

Ind./

 

ALP

L-NP

Greens

First#*

Others

RECENT ELECTION RESULTS

%

%

%

%

%

Election March 2, 1996
38.8
47.3 (8.6)
1.7
0
12.2
Election October 3^, 1998
40.1
39.5 (5.3)
2.1
0
18.3
Election November 10, 2001
37.8
43 (5.6)
4.4
0
13.8
Election October 9, 2004
37.6
46.4 (5.9)
7.2
2.0
6.8
Election November 24, 2007
43.4
42.1 (5.9)
7.8
2.0
4.7

MORGAN POLL

         
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
49
36.5 (3.5)
7
1.5
6
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
49.5
34 (2.5)
10.5
2.5
3.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
51.5
33 (2.5)
8
2
5.5
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
53
32 (2)
10
1
4
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
49
36 (3)
8.5
1.5
5
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
50
34.5 (3)
8
1
6.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
33 (3)
7.5
1.5
4
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
56.5
31.5 (3)
6.5
1.5
4
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
55.5
30.5 (2.5)
9
1.5
3.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
53.5
34 (2.5)
5.5
1.5
5.5
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
55
31 (2)
7
3
4
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
51
34 (2)
7.5
2
5.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
53.5
33.5 (2)
7.5
1.5
4
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
54
32 (3)
8.5
1
4.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
33.5 (4.5)
6.5
1
5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
55
33 (2.5)
6
1
5
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
54.5
33.5 (3.5)
5.5
2.5
4
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
52.5
32.5 (2)
8
2
5
May 7-11, 2008(Phone)
47
37 (2.5)
9
1
6
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
51.5
35 (2.5)
8.5
1
4
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
53
34 (3)
5.5
2.5
5
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
52.5
31.5 (2.5)
9
2
5
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
45.5
38.5 (2)
8.5
1.5
6
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
36 (3)
8.5
2
5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
52
34 (2)
8
1.5
4.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
35 (2.5)
8
2.5
6
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
48
34.5 (2.5)
11.5
2.5
3.5
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
45.5
39.5 (2)
7.5
2
5.5
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
45.5
39.5 (2.5)
8
1.5
6
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
47
37.5 (4)
8.5
2
5
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
50
37 (3)
6.5
2
4.5
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
45
38 (3.5)
8
1.5
7.5
 
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008
 
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
46.5
38.5 (3)
8
2.5
4.5
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
46.5
36.5 (3.5)
10
1.5
5.5
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
46.5
36 (2)
9.5
3
5
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
46
36 (2.5)
9.5
2.5
6
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
48
38 (2)
8
1.5
4.5
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
46.5
37.5 (2.5)
8.5
2
5.5
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
49
36 (3)
8.5
2
4.5
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
50.5
35.5 (2)
7.5
2
4.5
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
48.5
34.5 (2.5)
10.5
1.5
5
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
52.5
35.5 (3)
6
1.5
4.5
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
35 (4)
8
1.5
4
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
50.5
36 (2)
7.5
1.5
4.5
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
46.5
38 (4)
8
2.5
5
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
35.5 (3.5)
8
1.5
3.5
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
49
36.5 (3.5)
7.5
1
6
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5
33 (2.5)
8.5
2.5
4.5
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
50.5 34.5 (3) 8 2 5
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
48.5 39 (3) 6 1.5 5
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
53 33.5 (3) 8 1.5 4
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5 33.5 (2.5) 8 2 5
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face)
50 36.5 (2) 8.5 1.5 3.5
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face)
50 34 (2) 9 2.5 4.5
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face)
49.5 37.5 (1.5) 8 1.5 3.5
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone)
45 40.5 (4) 7.5 1 6
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face)
49 36 (2.5) 8 2 5
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone)
43.5 39.5 (3.5) 9 2.5 5.5
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone)
47 37 (2.5) 8.5 2.5 5
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face)
48.5 38 (3) 7 2.5 4
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face)
46 41 (3.5) 8.5 1 3.5
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone)
46 39 (2.5) 8 1 6
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face)
46.5 35 (3) 11.5 2.5 4.5
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face)
48 37.5 (3) 8 2 4.5
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face)
50.5 34 (2.5) 8.5 2 5
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone)
45.5 37.5 (3) 11 1.5 4.5
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face)
47.5 34.5 (3) 9.5 2.5 6
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face)
50.5 33.5 (3.5) 9.5 2 4.5
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
51.5 32.5 (3.5) 9.5 2 4.5
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face)
51 35.5 (2.5) 7.5 2 4
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)
46.5 37 (4.5) 10.5 1 5
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
49.5 34 (2.5) 9 2.5 5
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
52 34.5 (3) 7.5 2 4
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
51 32.5 (2.5) 9.5 2 5
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
46.5 38.5 (3) 8 2 5
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone)
42.5 41.5 (4) 8 1 7
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
45 36.5 (4) 9 3 6.5
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face)
48 35.5 (2) 9 1.5 6
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
47 35 (3.5) 9.5 3 5.5
 
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009
 
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone)
41 43 (3.5) 10.5 1.5 4
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone)
42 41.5 (2) 9.5 1.5 5.5
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
49 35.5 (2) 8 1.5 6
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face)
45.5 37 (2.5) 10 2 5.5
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone)
43 39 (3) 9.5 1.5 7
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face)
47.5 35.5 (3.5) 10 2 5
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face)
46 38 (3) 8.5 1.5 6
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone)
42 41 (4.5) 10.5 1 5.5
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face)
47 37 (2.5) 9 2 5
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
45 37.5 (3) 9 2.5 6
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face)
45 38.5 (2.5) 8.5 2 6
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
44.5 37 (2) 11 2 5.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
48 36.5 (2) 8.5 2.5 4.5
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
43 37.5 (3) 12 2 5.5
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
44 40.5 (3.5) 8 2.5 5
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face)
43.5 40 (3) 9 2.5 5
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone)
39.5 44.5 (2.5) 9 1.5 5.5
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face)
41 42.5 (3.5) 9 2.5 5
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone)
36 46 (2.5) 11.5 2 4.5
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face)
37.5 43 (3) 12 1.5 6
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face)
42.5 41 (2) 11 2 3.5
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone)
37.5 43 (3) 11.5 1.5 6.5
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face)
42 41 (2.5) 8.5 1.5 7
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face)
40 41.5 (2) 11 2.5 2
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face)
38 41 (1.5) 13 1.5 6.5
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face)
41 41 (2.5) 12.5 1.5 4
 
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010
 
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone)
38.5 45.5 (4.5) 9 1.5 5.5
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
45.5 38 (2) 10.5 1.5 4.5
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face)
40.5 41 (3.5) 12 1.5 5
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
44.5 39.5 (4.5) 10.5 1.5 4
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone)
44 38.5 (3) 11.5 2 4
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
43.5 37 (2) 11.5 1.5 6.5
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone)
42 42 (2.5) 11 1.5 3.5
July 31/ August 1, 2010 (Face : Face)
44 41 (2) 10 1 4
August 3, 2010 (Phone)
38 45 (2.5) 11 1 5
August 7/8, 2010 (Face : Face)
43 37 (3.5) 15.5 2 2.5
August 14, 2010 (Phone)
40.5 44 (3) 12.5 1 2
August 14/15, 2010 (Face : Face)
40 43 (4.5) 13.5 1.5 2
August 18/19, 2010 (Phone)
38 42 (3) 13 1.5 5.5
August 20, 2010 (Phone - Update)
39 42.5 (3) 11.5 1.5 5.5

Note: National Party results are in brackets. # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. * The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

 

ALP

L-NP

   
 
%
%    
Election March 2, 1996
46.4
53.6
   
Election October 3^, 1998
51
49
   
Election November 10, 2001
49
51
   
Election October 9, 2004
47.3
52.7
   
Election November 24, 2007
52.7
47.3
   
         

 

Preferences distributed

by how electors voted

at the 2007 election

Preferences distributed

by how electors

say they will vote

  % % % %
MORGAN POLL
ALP
L-NP
ALP
L-NP
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
58.5
41.5
58.5
41.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61.5
38.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
62
38
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
63
37
63
37
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
59
41
60
40
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
60
40
60
40
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
62.5
37.5
63
37
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
64.5
35.5
64.5
35.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
65
35
65.5
34.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
61
39
62
38
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
36.5
63.5
36.5
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
60.5
39.5
61.5
38.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
38
61.5
38.5
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
63.5
36.5
64.5
35.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
38
62.5
37.5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
62.5
37.5
64
36
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
62.5
37.5
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
62
38
64
36
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone)
58
42
58
42
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61
39
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
61
39
62
38
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
63
37
63.5
36.5
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
56
44
56
44
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
59
41
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
61
39
61.5
38.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
59
41
59
41
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
60
40
59.5
40.5
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
55
45
55
45
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
55
45
54.5
45.5
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
57
43
57.5
42.5
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
58
42
59
41
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
55.5
44.5
56
44
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15, 2008
September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
56
44
57.5
42.5
September 20/21 & 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
58.5
41.5
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
57.5
42.5
56.5
43.5
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
58
42
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
57.5
42.5
58
42
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
57
43
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
59.5
40.5
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
60.5
39.5
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
60.5
39.5
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
60
40
61
39
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
60
40
61
39
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
58.5
41.5
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
56
44
55.5
44.5
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
60
40
62
38
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
59.5
40.5
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
61.5
38.5
62
38
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61.5
38.5
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
57
43
56.5
43.5
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
61.5
38.5
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
62
38
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face)
59
41
60
40
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face)
60
40
60
40
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face)
58
42
58
42
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone)
54.5
45.5
55.5
44.5
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face)
58
42
59
41
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone)
54.5
45.5
55
45
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone)
57.5
42.5
58
42
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face)
57
43
57.5
42.5
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face)
55
45
54.5
45.5
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone)
56
44
56.5
43.5
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face)
58
42
59
41
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
57
43
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61.5
38.5
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone)
57
43
57.5
42.5
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face)
58
42
59
41
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
61.5
38.5
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
62
38
63
37
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face)
59.5
40.5
59.5
40.5
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)
58
42
58
42
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
60
40
61
39
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
60.5
39.5
61
39
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
61
39
61
39
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
56
44
55
45
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone)
52
48
52
48
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
57
43
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
58
42
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
58.5
41.5
Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of the Opposition on December 1, 2009
December 2/3, 2009 (Phone)
53
47
53
47
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone)
55.5
44.5
52.5
47.5
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
59
41
58.5
41.5
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face)
57
43
57
43
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone)
54.5
45.5
56
44
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face)
58.5
41.5
60
40
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
56.5
43.5
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone)
53.5
46.5
53
47
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face)
57.5
42.5
58
42
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
57.5
42.5
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face)
55.5
44.5
56
44
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
56.5
43.5
57
43
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
58
42
57.5
42.5
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
56
44
56.5
43.5
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
54.5
45.5
55
45
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face)
54 46 55 45
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone)
50 50 49.5 50.5
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face)
51.5 48.5 50.5 49.5
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone)
48 52 48.5 51.5
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face)
50.5 49.5 50 50
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face)
54.5 45.5 55 45
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone)
50 50 49.5 50.5
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face)
52.5 47.5 52 48
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face)
52 48 52.5 47.5
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face)
51.5 48.5 51.5 48.5
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face)
53 47 53 47
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone)
48.5 51.5 49 51
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)*
56.5 43.5 55 45
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face)
53.5 46.5 54.5 45.5
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
55 45 56 44
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone)
55.5 44.5 55.5 44.5
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
54 46 55.5 44.5
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone)
53 47 53 47
July 31/ August 1, 2010 (Face : Face)
54 46 53 47
August 3, 2010 (Phone)
49.5 50.5 50 50
August 7/8, 2010 (Face : Face)
57.5 42.5 57.5 42.5
August 14, 2010 (Phone)
51.5 48.5 51 49
August 14/15, 2010 (Face : Face)
52.5 47.5 52 48
August 18/19, 2010 (Phone)
51.5 48.5 51 49
August 20, 2010 (Phone - Update)
51 49 51 49

^1998 Federal Election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. *Julia Gillard’s rise to become the new Prime Minister necessitates a change in the reported two-party preferred figures to reflect how electors say they will vote.


THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal Election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win

ALP

L-NP

Can't Say

 

%

%

%

Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)
58
14.5
27.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)
61
17
22
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
65
15
20
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)
65
10.5
24.5
Jan 19/20& 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
64
16
20
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)
65.5
9
25.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)
65.5
17
17.5
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)
69.5
15
15.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
70.5
14
15.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)
71
13
16
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
70.5
14.5
15
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)
71.5
12.5
16
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
71.5
15
13.5
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)
75
10
15
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
72
15.5
12.5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)
73
12
15
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)
72.5
15.5
12
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)
72.5
14
13.5
May 7-11, 2008(Phone)
70.5
11.5
18
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)
69.5
17
13.5
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)
68
15.5
16.5
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
20.5
16
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)
65.5
21
13.5
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
20
18.5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)
64.5
21
14.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)
61.5
23.5
15
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)
66
22
12
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)
61
24
15
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
24.5
16
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)
62
23
15
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face)
60.5
23.5
16
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
26.5
16

Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of Opposition on September 15, 2008

September 24/25, 2008 (Phone)
51
29.5
19.5
September 20/21& 27/28, 2008 (Face : Face)
54
29
17
October 8/9, 2008 (Phone)
52
29
19
October 4/5 & 11/12, 2008 (Face : Face)
53.5
30
16.5
October 15/16, 2008 (Phone)
58.5
22.5
19
October 18/19 & 25/26, 2008 (Face : Face)
57.5
29
13.5
November 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)
58.5
25.5
16
November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)
59.5
26 14.5
November 29/30 & December 6/7, 2008 (Face : Face)
62.5
22.5
15
December 13/14 & 20/21, 2008 (Face : Face)
63.5
21
15.5
January 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
65
23
12
January 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
66
21
13
January 31 & February 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
58.5
26.5
15
February 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
63
24
13
February 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
67.5
21
11.5
February 21/22 & 28/ March 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
66
19.5
14.5
March 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
63.5 21 15.5
March 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
64 24 12
March 21/22 & 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
65 20.5 14.5
April 4/5 & 11/12, 2009 (Face : Face)
70.5 18 11.5
April 18/19 & 25/26, 2009 (Face : Face)
68.5 18.5 13
May 2/3 & 9/10, 2009 (Face : Face)
65.5 22 12.5
May 16/17, 2009 (Face : Face)
65.5 24 10.5
May 20/21, 2009 (Phone)
69 19.5 11.5
May 23/24 & 30/31, 2009 (Face : Face)
62 25.5 12.5
June 3/4, 2009 (Phone)
66.5 22.5 11
June 10/11, 2009 (Phone)
69 18 13
June 6/7 & 13/14, 2009 (Face : Face)
63.5 24 12.5
June 20/21, 2009 (Face : Face)
61 26.5 12.5
July 1/2, 2009 (Phone)
71.5 15.5 13
June 27/28 & July 4/5, 2009 (Face : Face)
69.5 18 12.5
July 11/12 & 18/19, 2009 (Face : Face)
69 19.5 11.5
July 25/26 & August 1/2, 2009 (Face : Face)
70 16.5 13.5
August 5/6, 2009 (Phone)
71.5 14 14.5
August 8/9 & 15/16, 2009 (Face : Face)
71 16 13
August 22/23 & 29/30, 2009 (Face : Face)
71.5 17 11.5
September 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
71.5 17 11.5
September 19/20 & 26/27, 2009 (Face : Face)
70 19 11
October 7/8, 2009 (Phone)
76.5 12.5 11
October 3/4 & 10/11, 2009 (Face : Face)
74.5 16 9.5
October 17/18 & 24/25, 2009 (Face : Face)
73 18 9
October 31 & November 1, 2009 (Face : Face)
71 17.5 11.5
November 7/8, 2009 (Face : Face)
70.5 18.5 11
November 11/12, 2009 (Phone)
72.5 15 12.5
November 14/15, 2009 (Face : Face)
67.5 21 11.5
November 21/22, 2009 (Face : Face)
69 19 12
November 28/29, 2009 (Face : Face)
72 19 9

Tony Abbott replaces Malcolm Turnbull as Leader of Opposition on December 1, 2009

December 2/3, 2009 (Phone)
78 13 9
December 4-9, 2009 (Phone)
66.5 20.5 13
December 5/6 & 12/13, 2009 (Face : Face)
70.5 18 11.5
December 19/20, 2009 & January 2/3, 2010 (Face : Face)
66 22 12
January 13/14, 2010 (Phone)
73.5 15.5 11
January 9/10 & 16/17, 2010 (Face : Face)
70 19 11
January 23/24 & 30/31, 2010 (Face : Face)
66 22.5 11.5
February 10/11, 2010 (Phone)
66 19 15
February 6/7 & 13/14, 2010 (Face : Face)
66.5 23 10.5
February 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
65 24.5 10.5
February 27/28 & March 6/7, 2010 (Face : Face)
61 26 13
March 13/14 & 20/21, 2010 (Face : Face)
65 23.5 11.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
68 21 11
April 10/11 & 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
63 25 12
April 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
61.5 25 13.5
May 1/2, 2010 (Face : Face)
60 27.5 12.5
May 4/5, 2010 (Phone)
61 27.5 11.5
May 8/9, 2010 (Face : Face)
54 32 14
May 12/13, 2010 (Phone)
56 30 14
May 15/16, 2010 (Face : Face)
53 33.5 13.5
May 22/23, 2010 (Face : Face)
55 29.5 15.5
May 26/27, 2010 (Phone)
56.5 28 15.5
May 29/30, 2010 (Face : Face)
51.5 33.5 15
June 5/6, 2010 (Face : Face)
49 33.5 17.5
June 12/13, 2010 (Face : Face)
48.5 38.5 13
June 19/20, 2010 (Face : Face)
46 41 13
 
Julia Gillard replaces Kevin Rudd as Australian Prime Minister on June 24, 2010
 
June 25-28, 2010 (Phone)
55.5 28 16.5
June 26/27 & July 3/4, 2010 (Face : Face)
62 27.5 10.5
July 10/11, 2010 (Face : Face)
53.5 30 16.5
July 17/18, 2010 (Face : Face)
61.5 26 12.5
July 20/21, 2010 (Phone)
69.5 18.5 12
July 24/25, 2010 (Face : Face)
67.5 18.5 14
July 27/28, 2010 (Phone)
64.5 20 15.5
July 31/ August 1, 2010 (Face : Face)
55 30.5 14.5
August 3, 2010 (Phone)
52 27 21
August 7/8, 2010 (Face : Face)
53.5 32.5 14
August 14, 2010 (Phone)
60 22.5 17.5
August 14/15, 2010 (Face : Face)
58 26 16
August 18/19, 2010 (Phone)
59.5 18 22.5

 

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott)

 

Dec

2/3

Dec

4-9

Dec 5/6

& 12/13

Dec 19/20

& Jan 2/3

Jan 13/14

Jan 9/10

& 16/17

Jan 23/24

& 30/31

Feb

10/11

Feb 6/7

& 13/14

Feb

20/21

Feb 27/28

& Mar 6/7

Mar 13/14

& 20/21

Mar 27/28

& Apr 3/4

  Phone Phone Face Face Phone Face Face Phone Face Face Face Face Face
  % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

54 52.5 59.5 58.5 56.5 59.5 61 57.5 57.5 58.5 57 56 53

Wrong direction

33 29.5 23 126 29 23 24 28.5 24 26.5 26 25 30

Roy Morgan GCR*

121 123 136.5 132.5 127.5 136.5 137 129 133.5 132 131 131 123

Can’t say

13 18 17.5 15.5 14.5 17.5 15 14 18.5 15 17 19 17

Total

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott)

 

Apr 10/11

& 17/18

Apr

24/25

May

1/2

May

4/5

May

8/9

May

12/13

May

15/16

May

22/23

May

26/27

May

29/30

June

5/6

June

12/13

June

19/20

  Face Face Face Phone Face Phone Face Face Phone Face Face Face Face
  % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

55 56.5 55 55.5 47 56 52 53 45.5 46.5 51 50 50

Wrong direction

28.5 30 28.5 32 34 32.5 32 31.5 38.5 35 29.5 32 33

Roy Morgan GCR*

126.5 126.5 126.5 123.5 113 123.5 120 121.5 107 111.5 121.5 118 117

Can’t say

16.5 13.5 16.5 12.5 19 11.5 16 15.5 16 18.5 19.5 18 17

Total

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

 

 

Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott)

 

June

25-28

June 26/27

& July 3/4

July

10/11

July

17/18

July

20/21

July

24/25

July

27/28

July 31/

Aug 1

Aug

3

Aug

7/8

Aug

14

Aug

14/15

Aug

18/19

   
  Phone Face Face Face Phone Face Phone Face Phone Face Phone Face Phone    
  % % % % % % % % % % % % %    

Right direction

54.5 55.5 54.5 52 54.5 51 51.5 52 50 54 51 53 42.5    

Wrong direction

29.5 24.5 23.5 28.5 32.5 27 31 28 34.5 27.5 35 28 38.5    

Roy Morgan GCR*

125 131 131 123.5 122 124 120.5 124 115.5 126.5 116 125 104    

Can’t say

16 20 22 19.5 13 22 17.5 20 15.5 18.5 14 19 19    

Total

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100    

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1

 

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal Election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland Election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

 

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian Election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

 

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.