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Most Australians (62%) Say Carbon Tax Will Have No Impact on Global Carbon Emissions & 75% Don’t Want Carbon Price to Go Higher

This telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over two nights last week – July 13/14, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,262 Australians aged 14+ including 1,083 electors.

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over two nights (July 13/14, 2011) last week found only 37% of Australians support the Gillard Government’s proposed Carbon Tax compared to a clear majority (58%) that are opposed. The Morgan Poll also asked Australians whether they agreed or disagreed with a number of statements made about the Gillard Government’s proposed Carbon Tax. It found:

  • A majority of Australians (62%) agree that ‘The Carbon Tax will have no significant impact on reducing the total world-wide volume of carbon dioxide put into the atmosphere’ (34% disagree).

  • An overwhelming majority of Australians (75%) disagree that ‘The $23 a tonne carbon price should be higher’ while only 15% agree that it should be higher.

  • Slightly more Australians (52%) agree ‘We should not have Carbon Tax until China and the USA have a similar tax’. While 47% disagree.

  • Australians are divided on whether ‘The Carbon Tax is a good first step towards a market-based price on carbon’ (49% disagree cf. 45% agree).

  • Nearly a third of Australians (32%) agree that ‘The proposed Carbon Tax is mainly designed to redistribute wealth in Australia’ while a majority of Australians (63%) disagree.

  • A majority of Australians (51%) agree ‘The Carbon Tax should cover more than 500 companies’. (40% disagree).

  • Australians and electors are evenly split on whether ‘The Carbon Tax will significantly increase the number of people working for the Government’ with 43% agreeing cf. 42% disagreeing.

 

Gary Morgan says:

“Although Australians’ views about the Carbon Tax divide strongly along party lines, there are many points on which Australians are in agreement. A majority of Australians agree (62%) that ‘The Carbon Tax will have no significant impact on reducing the total world-wide volume of carbon dioxide put into the atmosphere’ and an even larger majority (75%) disagree that ‘The $23 a tonne carbon price should be higher.’

“The Gillard Government’s plan to increase the Carbon Tax by 2.5% per year plus inflation taking it to $24.15 in 2013 and $25.40 in 2014 before becoming a floating price in 2015 is clearly against the wishes of the Australian population.

“Even more worryingly for the Gillard Government, nearly a third of Australians (32%) believe ‘The proposed Carbon Tax is mainly designed to redistribute wealth in Australia.’ Although this is a reality with all taxation, it appears the Government’s main message of using the Carbon Tax to reduce Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions and help prevent Global Warming is being ‘drowned out’ by discussion about how it will impact upon household budgets.”

This telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over two nights last week — July 13/14, 2011 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,262 Australians aged 14+ including 1,083 electors.

 

GLOBAL WARMING & CARBON TAX QUESTIONS

Question 18a:

“The Carbon Tax will have no significant impact on reducing the total world-wide volume of carbon dioxide put into the atmosphere. Do you agree or disagree?”

Clear majorities of Australians (62% cf. 34%) and electors (64% cf. 32%) agree that ‘The Carbon Tax will have no significant impact on reducing the total world-wide volume of carbon dioxide put into the atmosphere’. A huge majority of L-NP supporters (80% cf. 18%) agree with this statement while small majorities of ALP supporters (51% cf. 45%) and Greens supporters (54% cf. 38%) disagree.

 

Australians 14+

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

July 13/14,

2011

July 13/14,

2011

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

62

64

45

80

38

68

55

Disagree

34

32

51

18

54

28

36

Can’t say

4

4

4

2

8

4

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Question 18b:

“The $23 a tonne carbon price should be higher. Do you agree or disagree?”

An overwhelming majority of Australians (75%) and electors (75%) disagree that ‘The $23 a tonne carbon price should be higher’ while only 15% of Australians and electors agree that it should be higher. This is despite the Gillard Government’s proposed Carbon Tax rising by 2.5% per year plus inflation. Under this system the carbon price is earmarked to begin at $23 per tonne in July 2012, rising to $24.15 in 2013 and $25.40 in 2014 before becoming a floating price in 2015. Only 8% of L-NP supporters, 23% of ALP supporters and 27% of Greens supporters agree that the carbon price should be higher.

 

Australians 14+

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

July 13/14,

2011

July 13/14,

2011

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

15

15

  23

8

27

14

19

Disagree

75

75

63

87

55

74

62

Can’t say

10

10

14

5

18

12

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Question 18c:

“We should not have a Carbon Tax until China and the USA have a similar tax. Do you agree or disagree?”

Slightly more Australians (52% cf. 47%) and electors (52% cf. 47%) agree ‘We should not have Carbon Tax until China and the USA have a similar tax’. There is a clear party difference on this question with 72% of L-NP supporters agreeing compared to 27% that disagree, while clear majorities of ALP supporters (75% cf. 24%) and Greens supporters (78% cf. 21%) disagree rather than agree.

 

Australians 14+

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

July 13/14,

2011

July 13/14,

2011

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

52

52

24

72

21

54

48

Disagree

47

47

75

27

78

43

50

Can’t say

2

1

1

1

1

3

2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Question 18d:

“The Carbon Tax is a good first step towards a market-based price on carbon. Do you agree or disagree?”

More Australians (49% cf. 45%) and a majority of electors (51% cf. 44%) disagree that ‘The Carbon Tax is a good first step towards a market-based price on carbon’ than agree. A clear majority of L-NP supporters (74%) disagree with this statement compared to only 22% that agree. However a large majority of supporters of the ALP (79%) and Greens (78%) agree that ‘The Carbon Tax is a good first step towards a market-based price on carbon’.

 

Australians 14+

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

July 13/14,

2011

July 13/14,

2011

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

45

44

79

22

78

40

33

Disagree

49

51

17

74

19

53

44

Can’t say

6

5

4

4

3

7

23

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Question 18e:

“The proposed Carbon Tax is mainly designed to redistribute wealth in Australia. Do you agree or disagree?”

A majority of all Australians (63%) disagree that ‘The proposed Carbon Tax is mainly designed to redistribute wealth in Australia’. Incredibly though nearly a third (32%) agree ‘The Carbon Tax is mainly designed to redistribute wealth in Australia’ despite the Gillard Government stating the Carbon Tax is designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and help reduce Global Warming. A majority of electors of all parties disagree (64%) with this statement including majorities of Greens supporters (75%), ALP supporters (69%) and also a clear majority of L-NP supporters (61%).

 

Australians 14+

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

July 13/14,

2011

July 13/14,

2011

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

32

32

26

36

20

37

22

Disagree

63

64

69

61

75

60

57

Can’t say

5

4

5

3

5

3

21

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Question 18f:

 “The Carbon Tax should cover more than 500 companies. Do you agree or disagree?”

A majority of Australians (51%) and electors (51%) said ‘The Carbon Tax should cover more than 500 companies’. Greens supporters (70% cf. 21%) and ALP supporters (66% cf. 24%) most strongly agreed, however a small majority of L-NP supporters disagreed (54% cf. 39%).

 

Australians 14+

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

July 13/14,

2011

July 13/14,

2011

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

51

51

66

39

70

50

45

Disagree

40

41

24

54

21

44

33

Can’t say

9

8

10

7

9

6

22

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Question 18g:

“The Carbon Tax will significantly increase the number of people working for the Government. Do you agree or disagree?”

Australians and electors are evenly split on whether ‘The Carbon Tax will significantly increase the number of people working for the Government’ with 43% agreeing cf. 42% disagreeing. A clear majority of L-NP supporters agree (54% cf. 31%) while majorities of both ALP supporters (56% cf. 29%) and Greens supporters (57% cf. 27%) disagree.

 

Australians 14+

Electors

Federal Voting Intention

 

July 13/14,

2011

July 13/14,

2011

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

43

43

29

54

27

45

21

Disagree

42

42

56

31

57

41

57

Can’t say

15

15

15

15

16

14

22

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.5

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.1

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0