Back To Listing

STRONG SUPPORT FOR KEY’S NATIONAL PARTY EARLY IN FEBRUARY

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 933 electors from January 16-29, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows continuing strong support for Prime Minister John Key’s National 46% (down 1% since January 3-15, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners is virtually unchanged with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour Party has increased 3% to 30.5%, Greens 13% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 5.5% (up 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 1.5% (down 0.5%).

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 0.5 points to 133 — with 61% (up 0.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28% (unchanged) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party (46%, down 1%) maintaining a strong lead over the main Opposition Labour Party (30.5%, up 3%). However, support for the full National-led Government has dipped to 49% (down 0.5%), trailing the Opposition Parties (51%, up 0.5%).

“Prime Minister Key was in Melbourne for the annual Australia-New Zealand Leader’s Meeting with Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard last weekend. The talks aim to deepen ties between the two countries and a key area of discussion this year was the increased sharing of criminal history information between the two countries.

“The next New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll will show whether Key received a positive ‘bounce’ out of these bilateral talks. Despite a strong lead over Labour, National’s support (46%) has dipped to its lowest since November 2008 (44%).”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 933 electors from January 16-29, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

 

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE

National

Labour

Green

Party

NZ

First

Maori

Party*

Mana

Party

ACT

NZ

United

Future

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

General Election, July 27, 2002
20.9 41.3 7 10.4 n/a n/a 7.1 6.7 6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005
39.1 41.1 5.3 5.72 2.12 n/a 1.51 2.67 2.48
General Election, November 8, 2008
44.93 33.99 6.72 4.07 2.39 n/a 3.65 0.87 3.38
General Election, November 26, 2011
47.31 27.48 11.06 6.59 1.43 1.08 1.07 0.60 3.38

MORGAN POLL

                 
January 3-15, 2012
47 27.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 2.5
January 16-29, 2012
46 30.5 13 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.

Latest New Zealand Voting Intention - February 2012

 

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE

National Party-led

Government*

Opposition

Parties#

 

%

%

General Election, November 8, 2008
51.84 48.16
General Election, November 26, 2011
50.41 49.59

MORGAN POLL

   
January 3-15, 2012
49.5 50.5
January 16-29, 2012
49 51

*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Mana Party, NZ First, Other.

 

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates


Jan 4-16,

2011

Jan 17-30,

2011

Jan 31-Feb 13,

2011

Feb 14-27,

2011

Feb 28-Mar 13,

2011

Mar 21-Apr 3,

2011

Apr 4-17,

2011

Apr 18-May 1,

2011

May 2-15,

2011

May 16-29,

2011

May 30-June 12,

2011

June 13-26,

2011

June 27-July 10,

2011


% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

59.5 57 60 49.5 59.5 54.5 53.5 53.5 56.5 55 55.5 53.5 56

Wrong direction

27 27.5 24.5 35 26 29.5 32.5 34.5 30 28 29.5 31.5 29.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

132.5 129.5 135.5 114.5 133.5 125 121 119 126.5 127 126 122 126.5

Can’t say

13.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 14.5 16 14 12 13.5 17 15 15 14.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates


July 11-24,

2011

July 25-Aug 7,

2011

Aug 15-28,

2011

Aug 29-Sep11,

2011

Sep 12-25,

2011

Sep 26-Oct 9,

2011

Oct 10-23,

2011

Oct 24-Nov 6,

2011

Nov 7-18,

2011

Nov 22-24,

2011

Jan 3-15,

2012

Jan 16-29,

2012


% % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

56.5 57 59 60 61.5 62 61 58.5 60.5 49.5 60.5 61

Wrong direction

29 29 27.5 28 24.5 24.5 24.5 27.5 24 31 28 28

Roy Morgan GCR#

127.5 128 131.5 132 137 137.5 136.5 131 136.5 118.5 132.5 133

Can’t say

14.5 14 13.5 12 14 13.5 14.5 14 15.5 19.5 11.5 11

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

 

New Zealand GCR

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

 

 

Finding No. 4741 is taken from Computer Report No. 2348

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.