Back To Listing

The LNP Looks Set to Easily Win Saturday's Queensland State Election with Former Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman Elected Premier

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll on Queensland voting intention conducted over the last two nights of March 20-21, 2012 with 205 Queensland electors.

Anna Bligh looks set to be replaced by Campbell Newman as Premier of Queensland. Although Anna Bligh won the hearts of many in Queensland for her personal engagement with the floods and those effected by the floods last year; there is a clear groundswell of frustration in the Queensland electorate about economic issues — such as the loss of the State’s Triple A Rating; asset sales, also of the negativity felt towards Julia Gillard and Federal Labor appears to be rubbing off on the Queensland ALP; and there is also a sense that 20 years is enough.

On the other hand, while Campbell Newman gained some positive comments for his work as Brisbane Lord Mayor, the special qualitative research conducted by Roy Morgan of 205 Queensland electors does suggest that the swing to the LNP and Campbell Newman is more rooted in disappointment with Labor rather than huge positive regard for Campbell Newman or the Queensland LNP.

With only two days to go until the Queensland election LNP support is 62% leading the ALP (38%) on a Two-Party Preferred basis; and former Brisbane Lord Mayor, Campbell Newman, is clearly the ‘Preferred Premier’ of Queensland (48%) over Premier Bligh (35%).

Saturday’s Queensland State Election will easily be won by the Liberal National Party (LNP) under former Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman according to a special telephone Morgan Poll taken on March 20/21, 2012.

Primary support for the ALP is 28%, LNP 51%, Bob Katter’s recently formed Australian Party 8.5%, The Greens 7.5%, Family First 0.5% and Independents/Other 4.5%.


Think will win the Queensland State Election

A clear majority of Queensland electors (72%), up 12%) think the LNP will win the 2012 Queensland State Election. This is 12 % higher than Last April. Only 16% (down 11.5%) think the ALP will win, while 12% can’t say.

Analysis by voting intention shows the vast majority (90.5%) of LNP supporters expect the LNP to win the Queensland State Election compared to only 5% that think the ALP will win. Even among ALP voters (33.5%) expect the ALP to win the election compared to 61% who expect the LNP to win.

 

Would like to win the Queensland State Election

More Queenslanders would like to see the LNP than the ALP win the State Election - 52.5% say they would like the LNP to win compared to 28.5% who say they would like the ALP to win, and 19% can’t say.

Voters are clearly split along party lines with 83% of ALP supporters saying they would like the ALP to win the Queensland State Election compared to 10% preferring the LNP, while 95% of LNP supporters say they would like the LNP to win compared to only 2% that would prefer the ALP to win.


Job Approval (Anna Bligh v Campbell Newman)

Opposition Leader Campbell Newman is viewed more positively with 53% (up 7%) of the Queensland electorate approving of his handling of the job of Opposition Leader. This is an increase of 7% since April last year, 34.5% (up 9%) disapprove — while (12.5%, down 16%) are still undecided.

Premier Anna Bligh’s job approval is lower with only 38.5% of electors approving of her handling of the job This is down 6.5% since April last year,  more electors (53.5%, up 7%) disapprove and  8% (down 0.5%) can’t say.

 

Better Queensland Premier (Anna Bligh v Campbell Newman)

The special Morgan Poll finds that new Opposition Leader Campbell Newman (48%, up 1.5%) is preferred as the “Better Premier of Queensland” by the Queensland electorate clearly ahead of Premier Anna Bligh (35%, unchanged) while 17% (down 1.5%) can’t say.

Electors who answered this question “Thinking of Ms. Bligh and Mr. Newman. In your opinion who would make the better Queensland Premier?” were then asked — “And why do you say that?”

 

Anna Bligh ‘Better Premier’

Those who preferred Anna Bligh as Premier were complimentary about her handling last year’s Queensland floods and praised her compassion while many were critical of Campbell Newman’s role as Brisbane Lord Mayor and the alleged ‘backhand deals with developers’ that he may have engaged in.

“She is a better leader, but has a bad party”

“She is doing a good job with what she has got. She has a caring nature and she tries very hard.”

“She seems really calm and focused on the job. She is a woman and doesn’t gloat like men do and seems more level-headed.”

“Her composure during the flood crisis and her compassion. Its just people skills that she’s obviously exhibited.”

“Just the way she pulled through the floods.”

“She’s done a good job so far. I think we should give her a chance to keep going.”

“She is very good at speaking and addressing people with compassion and respect.”

“She has done a pretty good job so far, why get rid of her?”

“I’ve just got used to her. I have faith in her. I think the new fellow is a bit of a smart-arse.”

“I do not trust Mr. Newman. Its better the person you know. Mr Newman has a lot of personal interest that impact on politics and he has not had a good track record in Brisbane when he was Lord Mayor.”

“He’s an idiot, He bailed out as Brisbane Mayor and just expected to stroll into office.”

“Campbell Newman, I don’t trust him. He has dodgy business on the side.”

“I know that Campbell is all about these backhand deals with developers, not very sound.”

“There’s something about him I just don’t like.”

 

Campbell Newman ‘Better Premier’

Those who preferred Campbell Newman as Premier praised his work as Brisbane Lord Mayor and paid tribute to the fact he’s an ‘up and go person’ and also mentioned their disappointment with the performance of the current Labor Government and that Labor had had long enough to fix Queensland’s problems.

“He has a track record for delivering on what he says and also I am fed up with Labor.”

“The Labor Party has run down the whole country — we’ve gone broke!”

“I think he has the right attitude and is fresh-faced. Campbell would be a good Premier.”

“I think that he has a lot more to offer than Anna Bligh and the way Queensland has gone for the last 20 years.”

“She’s spent all our money and lost our Triple A ratings.”

“We definitely need a chance, a change is good.”

“Well, she sells off all our assets. She encourages coal and gas and she’s selling off Australia’s manufacturing.”

“Well Labor’s had 20 years to fix it up and they haven’t done much.”

“Because he did a good job with the city council here and he is a bit of an up and go person.”

“I think Labor’s been in long enough. I think some of her asset sales, she’s done all she’s going to do.”

“There’s too much Gillard in them. Its all promise and they treat everyone and the world and don’t fulfil their policies. Labor is supposed to be for the worker. I’ve worked my arse off!”

 

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll conducted in Queensland over the past two nights shows that the LNP is on course for a crushing victory under former Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman with the LNP clearly ahead of the ALP (62% Vs 38%,) on a Two-Party preferred basis. Queensland’s optional preferential voting system means this estimate is slightly uncertain as electors don’t need to number all boxes on the ballot paper as is done in a Federal Election.

“Of the minor parties, it appears that’s Bob Katter’s new political party — Katter’s Australia Party (8.5%) is set to outpoll the Greens (7.5%, unchanged) — while Family First (0.5%) is set to attract only a few votes.

“Newman (48%, up 1.5%) is also clearly preferred to current Premier Anna Bligh (35%, unchanged) as ‘Preferred Premier’ and looks set to take the job next week despite some nervous moments in the last few weeks as many questioned whether Newman would win his own electorate of Ashgrove. It now appears Newman will win Ashgrove.

“Electors that preferred Newman commented on the fact he has an ‘up and go attitude’ and that he’s a better manager whereas Bligh has failed. There was also a strong element of the “Its time” factor with many mentioning the fact Labor has had a long time to fix Queensland’s problems and tis time to give the other side a go. Some electors also mentioned the similarities of the Bligh Government to the Gillard Government and a lack of following through on their policies.

 “When electors were asked to nominate reasons for why they preferred Bligh as Premier many referred to her efforts during last year’s Queensland flood crisis, and her compassion in dealing with the floods and their aftermath. There were also many electors who referred to Newman’s time as Lord Mayor and possible ‘dodgy dealings’ with developers and others that may have benefited during his time as Lord Mayor.”

 

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll on Queensland voting intention conducted over the last two nights of March 20-21, 2012 with 205 Queensland electors.

 

For further information:

 

Gary Morgan:               Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066


 

Primary Voting Intention

 

Queensland State Elections

Morgan Telephone Poll

 

June 13,

1998

Feb 17,

2001

Feb 7,

2004

Sep 9,

2006

Mar 21,

2009

Feb 17 —

Mar 18, 2010

Apr 5-14,

2011

Mar 20/21,

2012

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38.9

48.9

47.0

46.9

42.3

34.5

29

28

LNP*

31.3

28.5

35.5

37.9

41.6

46.5

50.5

51

Greens

2.3

2.5

6.8

8

8.4

9.5

7.5

7.5

Katter’s Australia Party

na

na

na

na

na

na

na

8.5

Family First

-

-

-

1.9

0.8

2

1.5

0.5

Independents/ Others

27.5

20.1

10.7

5.3

6.9

7.5

11.5

4.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*The Liberal & National Parties contested the 1998, 2001, 2004 & 2006 Queensland State Elections separately.

 

Two-Party Preferred

 

Queensland State Elections

Morgan Telephone Poll

 

June 13,

1998

Feb 17,

2001

Feb 7,

2004

Sep 9,

2006

Mar 21,

2009*

Feb 17 —

Mar 18, 2010

Apr 5-14,

2011

Mar 20/21,

2012

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

51

60

55.5

54.9

51.2

44.5

38.5

38

LNP

49

40

44.5

45.1

48.8

55.5

61.5

62

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*The Two-Party preferences for the 2009 Queensland State Election were not officially released. In 6 seats the Two-Party preferred results were not between the ALP & LNP.

 

Think will win the Queensland State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the next Queensland State Election?”

 

Queensland

Electors 18+

Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention

 

Mar 20/21,

2012

City

Country

ALP

LNP

The

Greens#

Katter’s

Aus. Party#

Others/

Can’t say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

16

16

15.5

33.5

5

12.5

19.5

18.5

LNP

72

68

76

61

90.5

68

63.5

42.5

Can't say

12

16

8.5

5.5

4.5

19.5

17

39

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Would like to win the Queensland State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you think will win, who would you like to win the next Queensland State Election?”

 

Queensland

Electors 18+

Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention

 

Mar 20/21,

2012

City

Country

ALP

LNP

The

Greens#

Katter’s

Aus. Party#

Others/

Can’t say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

28.5

32.5

26

83

2

65

16.5

9

LNP

52.5

50

55

10

95

28

56

7

Can't say

19

17.5

19

7

3

7

27.5

84

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Better Queensland Premier — Anna Bligh v Campbell Newman

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Ms. Bligh and Mr. Newman, in your opinion who would make the better Queensland Premier?”

 

Morgan Telephone Poll

 

Opposition Leader

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

John-Paul

Langbroek

Campbell

Newman

 

Feb 17 —

Mar 18, 2010

Apr 5-14,

2011

Mar 20/21,

2012

ALP

LNP

The Greens#

Katter’s

Aus. Party#

Ind/

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. Newman

37.5

46.5

48

6

86.5

53.5

39

20

Ms. Bligh

38

35

35

88

7

27

31

22

Newman lead

(0.5)

11.5

13

(82)

79.5

26.5

8

(2)

Other / Neither

24.5

18.5

17

6

6.5

19.5

30

58

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Morgan Telephone Poll

 

Opposition Leader

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

John-Paul

Langbroek

Campbell

Newman

 

Feb 17 —

Mar 18, 2010

Apr 5-14,

2011

Mar 20/21,

2012

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. Newman

37.5

46.5

48

53.5

43

40

23

57.5

54

Ms. Bligh

38

35

35

30

40

39.5

53

29.5

30

Newman lead

(0.5)

11.5

13

   23.5

3

0.5

(30)

28

24

Other / Neither

24.5

18.5

17

16.5

17

20.5

24

13

16

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Approval of Leaders — Anna Bligh v Campbell Newman

Queensland Premier: Anna Bligh

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Ms. Bligh is handling her job as Queensland Premier?”

 

Morgan Telephone Poll

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

Feb 17 —

Mar 18, 2010

Apr 5-14,

2011

Mar 20/21,

2012

ALP

LNP

The Greens#

Katter’s

Aus. Party#

Ind/

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

25

45

38.5

81.5

14

59

36

36.5

Disapprove

64.5

46.5

      53.5

12

84.5

21

51

41

Approve - Disapprove

(39.5)

(1.5)

(15)

69.5

(70.5)

38

(15)

(4.5)

Can’t say

10.5

8.5

8

6.5

1.5

20

13

22.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Morgan Telephone Poll

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

Feb 17 —

Mar 18, 2010

Apr 5-14,

2011

Mar 20/21,

2012

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34#

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

25

        45

38.5

32

44.5

55.5

53

38

29

Disapprove

64.5

46.5

53.5

63

45

36

24.5

60

65.5

Approve - Disapprove

(39.5)

(1.5)

(15)

(31)

(0.5)

19.5

28.5

(22)

(36.5)

Can’t say

10.5

8.5

8

5

10.5

8.5

22.5

2

5.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Opposition Leader: Campbell Newman

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Newman is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

 

Morgan Telephone Poll

 

John-Paul

Langbroek as

Oppn. Leader

Campbell Newman as

Oppn. Leader

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

Feb 17 —

Mar 18, 2010

Apr 5-14,

2011

Mar 20/21,

2012

ALP

LNP

The

Greens#

Katter’s

Aus. Party#

Ind/

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

32.5

46

53

25.5

88

20.5

23

24.5

Disapprove

34

25.5

34.5

68.5

8

51.5

54

39

Approve - Disapprove

(1.5)

20.5

18.5

(43)

80

(31)

(31)

(14.5)

Can’t say

33.5

28.5

12.5

6

4

28

23

36.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Morgan Telephone Poll

 

John-Paul

Langbroek as

Oppn. Leader

Campbell

Newman as

Oppn. Leader

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

Feb 17 —

Mar 18, 2010

Apr 5-14,

2011

Mar 20/21,

2012

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

32.5

46

53

54.5

51.5

50

46

52.5

57

Disapprove

34

25.5

34.5

31.5

37.5

31.5

33

35

35.5

Approve - Disapprove

(1.5)

20.5

18.5

23

14

18.5

13

17.5

21.5

Can’t say

33.5

28.5

12.5

14

11

18.5

21

12.5

7.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

200

±6.8

±6.0

±4.2

±3.0

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9