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NSW Coalition Has Big Lead Although Reduced: L-NP (58.5%) CF. ALP (41.5%)

These are the main findings of a special Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll including 479 electors in NSW, interviewed over the past week of March 20-28, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 4.5% did not name a party.

In NSW L-NP support is now 58.5% (down 12% since a Morgan Poll in April 2011) still way ahead of the ALP 41.5% (up 12%) on a two-party preferred basis a special telephone Morgan Poll taken over the last week March 20-28, 2012 finds.

Despite the large drop in support for the L-NP since April 2011, the L-NP’s two-party preferred lead is down a lesser 5.7% since the 2011 NSW Election: L-NP (64.2%) cf. ALP (35.8%).

Primary support for the L-NP is 49% (down 7.5% since April 2011), while support for the ALP is only 24.5% (up 5.5%), the Greens 13% (unchanged), and Independents/Others 13.5% (up 2%).

If the NSW State Election had been held this week the L-NP would have been easily re-elected.

 

Better NSW Premier (Barry O’Farrell v John Robertson)

This special telephone Morgan Poll finds that NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell (57%, down 12.5%) is clearly seen as the ‘Better Premier of NSW’ far ahead of Opposition Leader John Robertson, (19.5%, up 12.5%).

 

Job Approval (Barry O’Farrell v John Robertson)

Premier Barry O’Farrell’s approval rating is 48% (down 6.5%) for his handling of his job as NSW Premier while 28.5% (up 18.5%) disapprove and 23.5% (down 12%) can’t say.

More electors disapprove (37.5%, up 15%) of Opposition Leader John Robertson’s handing of his job than approve (25.5%, up 7%) while a still large 37% (down 22%) can’t say.

 

Think will win the NSW State Election

An increasing number of NSW electors (78.5%, up 1.5%) think the L-NP would win a NSW State Election if held today compared to 12.5% (up 3%) that think the ALP would win while 9% (down 4.5%) can’t say.

An overwhelming majority of L-NP supporters expect the L-NP (90.5%) to win the next NSW State Election compared to just 5% that think the ALP will win.

A clear majority of ALP voters also expect the L-NP (67%) to win the next NSW State Election compared to only 23% that expect the ALP to win.

 

Would like to win the NSW State Election

A falling number of NSW electors (52%, down 8%) say they would like to see the L-NP win a NSW State Election if held today compared to 36.5% (up 12%) who say they would like the ALP to win, while a further 11.5% (down 4%) can’t say.

Voters are clearly split along party lines with 92.5% of L-NP supporters saying they would like the L-NP to win a NSW State Election compared to only 2.5% that would prefer the ALP to win while 87.5% of ALP supporters say they would like the ALP to win compared to 7% preferring the L-NP.

Barry O’Farrell ‘Better Premier’

Those who preferred Barry O’Farrell as Premier commented on the fact he has far more experience in State politics and is a good fellow with character. Many also mentioned the poor state of the NSW economy due to many years of Labor mismanagement and Robertson’s connections to the unions.

“Mr. O’Farrell has got more experience.”

“He’s straightforward, straight down the gun.”

“I think he’s doing a good job at the moment even though I vote Labor.”

“It appears he’s taking on the financial issues of the State.”

“I just like the man’s character. I’m more impressed by him.”

“He has a better understanding of issues. Mr. Robertson is very union orientated.”

“After recent events, I’m not too keen with the Labor Party.”

“We tried Labor for the last 15-20 years and now he’s cleaning up the mess.”

“Because we just had 16 years of Labor Government and look at the mess they’ve left us in!”

“Just the mess that Labor’s put us in and left us in.”

“Because Labor tend to be running Australia into the ground federally and at State level.”

“I’d rather trust a snake I know rather than one I don’t.”

“He just seems to have a better outlook on what’s going on, a better grip on things.”

“Robertson doesn’t have very much credibility in my eyes.”

“I’m a little bit cynical at the moment with Mr. Robertson. What he’s said in Opposition and as a former union leader, I think he’s a bit artificial.”

“He’s got to be given a chance, and he’s only been in there a year. We always give people a chance here and he seems like he’s alright.”

“Robertson is too closely connected to the dying remnants, the corrupt elements, of the Labor Party.”

“He’s doing a pretty good job, John Robertson has no experience has he.”

“I think the Liberals will handle the economy a lot better.”

 

John Robertson ‘Better Premier’

Those who preferred John Robertson as Premier were most likely to comment on the poor job the current Premier was doing than anything else, however some said Robertson was more in touch with the average man in the street.

“I don’t think Mr. O’Farrell is a particularly good leader, just following on by what has been put in place.”

“I don’t think the other bloke’s any good.”

“O’Farrell has been around too long, I don’t like his attitude.”

“I’ve never heard of him, so maybe he would be less controversial than O’Farrell.”

“I think he has a better grasp of the situation. I’m a labor voter.”

“He’s a better people person than the other dude.”

“I like the way he speaks and the way he presents himself.”

“Because I would never vote for Liberal, there’s a philosophical divide there.”

“I don’t agree with what Barry O’Farrell is doing with workplace relations at the moment — cutting jobs etc.”

“I think he’s fairer.”

“I don’t like Barry O’Farrell’s response so far to issues that are raised.”

“The O’Farrell Government is making a lot of promises and yet they don’t do anything.”

Gary Morgan says:

“In late March with the LNP winning a resounding victory in the Queensland State Election the Morgan Poll shows if a NSW State Election were held now the L-NP Government would easily win re-election. The L-NP (58.5%) is way ahead of the ALP (41.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“Despite a drop in personal support Premier Barry O’Farrell (57%, down 12.5%) is still clearly seen as the ‘Better Premier’ than Opposition Leader John Robertson (19.5%, up 12.5%) and O’Farrell’s job approval (48%, down 6.5%) is well ahead of his job disapproval (28.5%, up 18.5%). In contrast, more electors disapprove of Robertson’s handling of his job (37.5%, up 15%) than approve (25.5%, up 7%).

“Special Morgan Poll Quantitative Research shows Opposition Leader John Robertson’s biggest problem is his close associations with the former Labor Government and the unions in New South Wales. Robertson was a union boss for many years before transferring to State politics and was first elected to Parliament at the 2011 NSW Election — which the Labor Party lost decisively.”

 

These are the main findings of a special Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll including 479 electors in NSW, interviewed over the past week of March 20-28, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 4.5% did not name a party.

Primary Voting Intention

 

NSW State Elections

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

March 22,

2003

March 24,

2007

March 26,

2011

June 2/3

& 9, 2010

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

34.4 (9.6)

38.0 (10.1)

51.2 (12.6)

45 (1)

53 (4.5)

56.5 (5)

49 (1.5)

ALP

42.7

39.0

25.6

28.5

22

19

24.5

Greens

8.3

9.0

10.3

16

13.5

13

13

Independents/

Others

14.6

14.0

12.9

10.5

11.5

11.5

13.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Two-Party Preferred

 

NSW State Elections

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

March 22, 2003

March 24,

2007

March 26,

2011

June 2/3

& 9, 2010

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

43.8

47.7

64.2

58

65

70.5

58.5

ALP

56.2

52.3

35.8

42

35

29.5

41.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Think will win the NSW State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the next New South Wales State Election?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention

 

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

City

Country

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Others/

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

69

77

78.5

80.5

74.5

67

90.5

65

71.5

ALP

20.5

9.5

12.5

11.5

14

23

5

17.5

14.5

Can't say

10.5

13.5

9

8

11.5

10

4.5

17.5

14

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Would like to win the NSW State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you think will win, who would you like to win the next New South Wales State Election?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention

 

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

City

Country

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Others/

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

58.5

60

52

   54

47

7

92.5

14.5

30

ALP

28.5

24.5

36.5

35.5

38.5

87.5

2.5

       71

34.5

Can't say

13

15.5

11.5

10.5

14.5

5.5

5

14.5

35.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Better NSW Premier — Barry O’Farrell v John Robertson

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. O’Farrell and Mr. Robertson. In your opinion, who would make the better New South Wales Premier — Mr. O’Farrell or Mr. Robertson?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

Kristina Keneally

as Premier

Barry O’Farrell

as Premier

 

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Others

Can’t

say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. O’Farrell

43

69.5

57

30

82.5

42.5

47.5

3.5

Mr. Robertson

36.5

7

19.5

51

3

30.5

19

-

O’Farrell lead

6.5

62.5

37.5

(21)

79.5

12

28.5

3.5

Other / Neither

20.5

23.5

23.5

19

14.5

27

33.5

96.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

Kristina Keneally

as Premier

Barry O’Farrell

as Premier

 

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. O’Farrell

43

69.5

57

64.5

50

41

51

63

59.5

Mr. Robertson

36.5

7

19.5

20

19.5

31

16.5

17

20.5

O’Farrell lead

6.5

62.5

37.5

44.5

30.5

10

34.5

46

39

Other / Neither

20.5

23.5

23.5

15.5

30.5

28

32.5

20

20

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Approval of Leaders — Barry O’Farrell v John Robertson

NSW Premier: Barry O’Farrell

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. O’Farrell is handling his job as New South Wales Premier?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

Kristina Keneally

as Premier

Barry O’Farrell

as Premier

 

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Others

Can’t

say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

38.5

54.5

48

25

69.5

29

36.5

23.5

Disapprove

44

10

28.5

49.5

9.5

51

37

31

Approve —

Disapprove

(5.5)

44.5

19.5

(24.5)

60

(22)

(0.5)

(7.5)

Can’t say

17.5

35.5

23.5

25.5

21

20

26.5

45.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

Kristina Keneally

as Premier

Barry O’Farrell

as Premier

 

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

38.5

54.5

48

54

42.5

40.5

40

     51

51.5

Disapprove

44

10

28.5

26.5

30

25

34

25.5

28.5

Approve —

Disapprove

(5.5)

44.5

19.5

27.5

12.5

15.5

6

25.5

23

Can’t say

17.5

          35.5

23.5

19.5

27.5

34.5

26

23.5

20

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Opposition Leader: John Robertson

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Robertson is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

Barry O’Farrell as

Opposition Leader

John Robertson

as Opposition Leader

 

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Others

Can’t

say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

43

18.5

25.5

43

19.5

22

26

4.5

Disapprove

29

22.5

37.5

29

45.5

34

36

24.5

Approve —

Disapprove

14

(4)

(12)

14

(26)

(12)

(10)

(20)

Can’t say

28

59

37

28

35

44

38

71.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

Barry O’Farrell as Opposition Leader

John Robertson

as Opposition Leader

 

Oct 26/27 &

Nov 30/Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

43

18.5

25.5

24.5

26

37

25

20

26

Disapprove

29

22.5

37.5

43.5

32.5

17.5

39.5

35.5

44

Approve —

Disapprove

14

(4)

(12)

(19)

(6.5)

19.5

(14.5)

(15.5)

(18)

Can’t say

28

59

37

32

41.5

45.5

35.5

44.5

30

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:               Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066