NATIONAL (44%) LEAD OVER LABOUR TUMBLES (30.5%)

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows decreasing support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party 44% (down 4.5% since February 27-March 11, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour has risen 0.5% to 30.5%, Greens 17% (up 4.5%) — a record high, New Zealand First 5% (unchanged), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (down 1%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would likely be returned to Government, however a Labour/ Greens alliance could form Government.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 5.5 points to 124 — with 53.5% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 4.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party (44%, down 4.5%) falling to its lowest share of the vote since immediately after the 2008 New Zealand Election. Although Labour support (30.5%, up 0.5%) was largely unchanged the Greens (17%, up 4.5%) have surged to their highest level of support ever. The record Greens support coincides with the yearly ‘Earth Hour’ which was held during the survey period last Saturday, March 31, 2012. This is the first time since the election of the Key Government in 2008 that Labour and Greens support (47.5%) is greater than support for National (44%).

“Recent controversies involving several National MPs have embarrassed the Government and provided plenty of ‘ammunition’ for the Opposition. Today’s result shows that while National continues to enjoy a strong lead by itself, a combination of left-leaning parties could form Government if there was a shock election in the near future. At present though, Key is not due to go back to the polls until late 2014.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 948 electors from March 12 — April 1, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Mana Party, NZ First, Other.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Finding No. 4761 is taken from Computer Report No. 2352

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.