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NATIONAL (44%) LEAD OVER LABOUR TUMBLES (30.5%)

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 948 electors from March 12 – April 1, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows decreasing support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party 44% (down 4.5% since February 27-March 11, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour has risen 0.5% to 30.5%, Greens 17% (up 4.5%) — a record high, New Zealand First 5% (unchanged), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (down 1%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would likely be returned to Government, however a Labour/ Greens alliance could form Government.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 5.5 points to 124 — with 53.5% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 4.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party (44%, down 4.5%) falling to its lowest share of the vote since immediately after the 2008 New Zealand Election. Although Labour support (30.5%, up 0.5%) was largely unchanged the Greens (17%, up 4.5%) have surged to their highest level of support ever. The record Greens support coincides with the yearly ‘Earth Hour’ which was held during the survey period last Saturday, March 31, 2012. This is the first time since the election of the Key Government in 2008 that Labour and Greens support (47.5%) is greater than support for National (44%).

“Recent controversies involving several National MPs have embarrassed the Government and provided plenty of ‘ammunition’ for the Opposition. Today’s result shows that while National continues to enjoy a strong lead by itself, a combination of left-leaning parties could form Government if there was a shock election in the near future. At present though, Key is not due to go back to the polls until late 2014.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 948 electors from March 12 — April 1, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

 

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE

National

Labour

Green

Party

NZ

First

Maori

Party*

Mana

Party

ACT

NZ

United

Future

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

General Election, July 27, 2002
20.9 41.3 7 10.4 n/a n/a 7.1 6.7 6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005
39.1 41.1 5.3 5.72 2.12 n/a 1.51 2.67 2.48
General Election, November 8, 2008
44.93 33.99 6.72 4.07 2.39 n/a 3.65 0.87 3.38
General Election, November 26, 2011
47.31 27.48 11.06 6.59 1.43 1.08 1.07 0.60 3.38

MORGAN POLL

                 
January 3-15, 2012
47 27.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 2.5
January 16-29, 2012
46 30.5 13 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
January 30 - February 12, 2012
45.5 31 11.5 6 1.5 1 1 0.5 2
February 13-26, 2012
45.5 31.5 13 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 1.5
February 27 - March 11, 2012
48.5 30 12.5 5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5
March 12 - April 1, 2012
44 30.5 17 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.

 

Latest New Zealand Voting Intention - April 2012

 

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE

National Party-led

Government*

Opposition

Parties#

 

%

%

General Election, November 8, 2008
51.84 48.16
General Election, November 26, 2011
50.41 49.59

MORGAN POLL

   
January 3-15, 2012
49.5 50.5
January 16-29, 2012
49 51
January 30 - February 12, 2012
48.5 51.5
February 13-26, 2012
48 52
February 27 - March 11, 2012
50.5 49.5
March 12 - April 1, 2012
46.5 53.5

*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Mana Party, NZ First, Other.

 

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates


Jan 4-16,

2011

Jan 17-30,

2011

Jan 31-Feb 13,

2011

Feb 14-27,

2011

Feb 28-Mar 13,

2011

Mar 21-Apr 3,

2011

Apr 4-17,

2011

Apr 18-May 1,

2011

May 2-15,

2011

May 16-29,

2011

May 30-June 12,

2011

June 13-26,

2011

June 27-July 10,

2011


% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

59.5 57 60 49.5 59.5 54.5 53.5 53.5 56.5 55 55.5 53.5 56

Wrong direction

27 27.5 24.5 35 26 29.5 32.5 34.5 30 28 29.5 31.5 29.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

132.5 129.5 135.5 114.5 133.5 125 121 119 126.5 127 126 122 126.5

Can’t say

13.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 14.5 16 14 12 13.5 17 15 15 14.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates


July 11-24,

2011

July 25-Aug 7,

2011

Aug 15-28,

2011

Aug 29-Sep11,

2011

Sep 12-25,

2011

Sep 26-Oct 9,

2011

Oct 10-23,

2011

Oct 24-Nov 6,

2011

Nov 7-18,

2011

Nov 22-24,

2011

Jan 3-15,

2012

Jan 16-29,

2012


% % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

56.5 57 59 60 61.5 62 61 58.5 60.5 49.5 60.5 61

Wrong direction

29 29 27.5 28 24.5 24.5 24.5 27.5 24 31 28 28

Roy Morgan GCR#

127.5 128 131.5 132 137 137.5 136.5 131 136.5 118.5 132.5 133

Can’t say

14.5 14 13.5 12 14 13.5 14.5 14 15.5 19.5 11.5 11

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates


Jan 30-Feb 12,

2012

Feb 13-26,

2012

Feb 27-Mar 11,

2012

Mar 12-Apr 1,

2012

               

% % % %                

Right direction

57 53.5 52.5 53.5                

Wrong direction

30 32.5 34 29.5                

Roy Morgan GCR#

127 121 118.5 124                

Can’t say

13 14 13.5 17                

TOTAL

100 100 100 100                

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

New Zealand GCR

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

 

 

Finding No. 4761 is taken from Computer Report No. 2352

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.