This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 948 electors from March 12 – April 1, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows decreasing support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party 44% (down 4.5% since February 27-March 11, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 1.5% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).
Support for Labour has risen 0.5% to 30.5%, Greens 17% (up 4.5%) — a record high, New Zealand First 5% (unchanged), Mana Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (down 1%).
If a National Election were held today the National Party would likely be returned to Government, however a Labour/ Greens alliance could form Government.
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 5.5 points to 124 — with 53.5% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 4.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party (44%, down 4.5%) falling to its lowest share of the vote since immediately after the 2008 New Zealand Election. Although Labour support (30.5%, up 0.5%) was largely unchanged the Greens (17%, up 4.5%) have surged to their highest level of support ever. The record Greens support coincides with the yearly ‘Earth Hour’ which was held during the survey period last Saturday, March 31, 2012. This is the first time since the election of the Key Government in 2008 that Labour and Greens support (47.5%) is greater than support for National (44%).
“Recent controversies involving several National MPs have embarrassed the Government and provided plenty of ‘ammunition’ for the Opposition. Today’s result shows that while National continues to enjoy a strong lead by itself, a combination of left-leaning parties could form Government if there was a shock election in the near future. At present though, Key is not due to go back to the polls until late 2014.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 948 electors from March 12 — April 1, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:
PRIMARY VOTE
|
National
|
Labour
|
Green
Party
|
NZ
First
|
Maori
Party*
|
Mana
Party
|
ACT
NZ
|
United
Future
|
Other
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
General Election, July 27, 2002
|
20.9 |
41.3 |
7 |
10.4 |
n/a |
n/a |
7.1 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
General Election, September 17, 2005
|
39.1 |
41.1 |
5.3 |
5.72 |
2.12 |
n/a |
1.51 |
2.67 |
2.48 |
General Election, November 8, 2008
|
44.93 |
33.99 |
6.72 |
4.07 |
2.39 |
n/a |
3.65 |
0.87 |
3.38 |
General Election, November 26, 2011
|
47.31 |
27.48 |
11.06 |
6.59 |
1.43 |
1.08 |
1.07 |
0.60 |
3.38 |
MORGAN POLL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January 3-15, 2012
|
47 |
27.5 |
14.5 |
5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
January 16-29, 2012
|
46 |
30.5 |
13 |
5.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
January 30 - February 12, 2012
|
45.5 |
31 |
11.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
2 |
February 13-26, 2012
|
45.5 |
31.5 |
13 |
5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
February 27 - March 11, 2012
|
48.5 |
30 |
12.5 |
5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
March 12 - April 1, 2012
|
44 |
30.5 |
17 |
5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v All Opposition Parties
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
|
National Party-led
Government*
|
Opposition
Parties#
|
|
%
|
%
|
General Election, November 8, 2008
|
51.84 |
48.16 |
General Election, November 26, 2011
|
50.41 |
49.59 |
MORGAN POLL
|
|
|
January 3-15, 2012
|
49.5 |
50.5 |
January 16-29, 2012
|
49 |
51 |
January 30 - February 12, 2012
|
48.5 |
51.5 |
February 13-26, 2012
|
48 |
52 |
February 27 - March 11, 2012
|
50.5 |
49.5 |
March 12 - April 1, 2012
|
46.5 |
53.5 |
*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Mana Party, NZ First, Other.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates
|
|
Jan 4-16,
2011
|
Jan 17-30,
2011
|
Jan 31-Feb 13,
2011
|
Feb 14-27,
2011
|
Feb 28-Mar 13,
2011
|
Mar 21-Apr 3,
2011
|
Apr 4-17,
2011
|
Apr 18-May 1,
2011
|
May 2-15,
2011
|
May 16-29,
2011
|
May 30-June 12,
2011
|
June 13-26,
2011
|
June 27-July 10,
2011
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
Right direction
|
59.5 |
57 |
60 |
49.5 |
59.5 |
54.5 |
53.5 |
53.5 |
56.5 |
55 |
55.5 |
53.5 |
56 |
Wrong direction
|
27 |
27.5 |
24.5 |
35 |
26 |
29.5 |
32.5 |
34.5 |
30 |
28 |
29.5 |
31.5 |
29.5 |
Roy Morgan GCR#
|
132.5 |
129.5 |
135.5 |
114.5 |
133.5 |
125 |
121 |
119 |
126.5 |
127 |
126 |
122 |
126.5 |
Can’t say
|
13.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
14.5 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
13.5 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
14.5 |
TOTAL
|
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates
|
|
July 11-24,
2011
|
July 25-Aug 7,
2011
|
Aug 15-28,
2011
|
Aug 29-Sep11,
2011
|
Sep 12-25,
2011
|
Sep 26-Oct 9,
2011
|
Oct 10-23,
2011
|
Oct 24-Nov 6,
2011
|
Nov 7-18,
2011
|
Nov 22-24,
2011
|
Jan 3-15,
2012
|
Jan 16-29,
2012
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
Right direction
|
56.5 |
57 |
59 |
60 |
61.5 |
62 |
61 |
58.5 |
60.5 |
49.5 |
60.5 |
61 |
Wrong direction
|
29 |
29 |
27.5 |
28 |
24.5 |
24.5 |
24.5 |
27.5 |
24 |
31 |
28 |
28 |
Roy Morgan GCR#
|
127.5 |
128 |
131.5 |
132 |
137 |
137.5 |
136.5 |
131 |
136.5 |
118.5 |
132.5 |
133 |
Can’t say
|
14.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
12 |
14 |
13.5 |
14.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
19.5 |
11.5 |
11 |
TOTAL
|
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
|
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates
|
|
Jan 30-Feb 12,
2012
|
Feb 13-26,
2012
|
Feb 27-Mar 11,
2012
|
Mar 12-Apr 1,
2012
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Right direction
|
57 |
53.5 |
52.5 |
53.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Wrong direction
|
30 |
32.5 |
34 |
29.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan GCR#
|
127 |
121 |
118.5 |
124 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Can’t say
|
13 |
14 |
13.5 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TOTAL
|
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
Sample Size
|
Percentage Estimate
|
|
40%-60%
|
25% or 75%
|
10% or 90%
|
5% or 95%
|
500
|
±4.5
|
±3.9
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
1,000
|
±3.2
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
±1.4
|
Finding No. 4761 is taken from Computer Report No. 2352
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.