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Victorian Coalition Lead Slightly Reduced  - L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%)

These are the main findings of a special Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll including 269 electors in Victoria, interviewed over the past two weeks of June 5-13, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5% since Mar 20-28, 2012) did not name a party.

If a Victorian State Election were held today Ted Baillieu’s Victorian L-NP Government would be re-elected. The L-NP 52% (down 1% since March 2012) leads the ALP 48% (up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted in Victoria during June 5-13, 2012.

Primary support for the L-NP is 44.5% (down 1%) ahead of the ALP (33.5%, down 2%), the Greens 15.5% (up 3%) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (unchanged).

If a Victorian State Election were held now the L-NP would win a close election.

 

Better Victorian Premier (Ted Baillieu v Daniel Andrews)

When electors were asked who would make the better Premier — Premier Ted Baillieu at 41% (down 12.5%) is still preferred to Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews (33.5%, up 11.5%) although the gap has closed significantly over the past fourteen months.

 

Job Approval (Ted Baillieu v Daniel Andrews)

Far fewer electors approve of Premier Baillieu’s job performance as Premier (29%, down 11%) compared to 53.5% (up 15.5%) that disapprove while 17.5% (down 4.5%) can’t say.

More electors disapprove of Opposition Leader Daniel Andrews’ job performance as 35% (down 1%) disapprove and 28% (up 8%) approve while a still large 37% (down 7%) can’t say.

 

Think will win & would like to win the Victorian State Election

A clear majority, 56.5% (down 6.5%) of Victorians now think the L-NP would win a State Election — if held now — compared to only 33.5% (up 10%) that think the ALP would win while 10% (down 3.5%) can’t say.

Electors also favour the L-NP in terms of who they ‘would like to win’ a State Election if held now with 47% (down 1.5%) saying they would like the L-NP to win a new election compared to 41% (up 0.5%) that would like the ALP to win while 12% (up 1%) can’t say.

These are the main findings of a special Australia-wide telephone Morgan Poll including 269 electors in Victoria, interviewed over the past two weeks of June 5-13, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 0.5% since Mar 20-28, 2012) did not name a party.

Primary Voting Intention

 

Victorian State

Elections

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

Nov 25,

2006

Nov 27,

2010

Nov 16-18,

2010

Nov 22-25,

2010

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

39.6 (5.2)

44.8 (6.8)

41.5 (3.5)

44.5 (2.5)

46 (3.5)

48 (2)

45.5 (2)

44.5 (4.5)

ALP

43.1

36.2

39

35.5

32

31

35.5

33.5

Greens

10.0

11.2

15.5

13

14

11.5

12.5

15.5

Independents/ Others

7.3

7.8

4

7

8

9.5

6.5

6.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Two-Party Preferred

 

Victorian State

Elections

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

Nov 25,

2006

Nov 27,

2010

Nov 16-18,

2010

Nov 22-25,

2010

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

45.6

51.6

47.5

51

57

57

53

52

ALP

54.4

48.4

52.5

49

43

43

47

48

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Think will win the Victorian State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think would win a Victorian State Election if held now?”

 

Victorian Electors 18+

Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention

 

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

Melb

Country

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Ind/

Others

Can’t

say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

L-NP

51.5

75.5

63

56.5

55.5

58.5

36.5

80

37

58.5

39.5

ALP

17

13

23.5

33.5

35.5

28

55.5

15

51

19.5

9.5

Can't say

31.5

11.5

13.5

10

9

13.5

8

5

12

22

51

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Would like to win the Victorian State Election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you think will win, who would you like to win a Victorian State Election if held now?”

 

Victorian Electors 18+

Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention

 

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

Melb

Country

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Ind/

Others

Can’t say#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

 

L-NP

42

52.5

48.5

47

41

62

4

95

25

35.5

-

ALP

32.5

36.5

40.5

41

46.5

27

    88.5

2

67.5

23.5

-

Can't say

25.5

11

11

12

12.5

11

 7.5

3

7.5

41

100

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Better Victorian Premier — Ted Baillieu v Daniel Andrews

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Baillieu and Mr. Andrews. In your opinion, who would make the better Victorian Premier — Mr. Baillieu or Mr. Andrews?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

John Brumby as Premier

Ted Baillieu as Premier

 

Ted Baillieu as Opposition Leader

Brumby as Oppn. Ldr.

Daniel Andrews as

Opposition Leader

 

Nov 23-25,

2010

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Ind/

Other#

Can’t

say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. Baillieu

39

48.5

60

53.5

41

20

66

20.5

52

8

Mr. Andrews

43.5

25.5

14

22

33.5

57

13

49.5

18

30

Baillieu lead

(4.5)

23

46

31.5

7.5

(37)

53

(29.5)

34

(22)

Other / Neither

17.5 

26

26

24.5

25.5

23

21

30

30

62

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

John Brumby as

Premier

Ted Baillieu as Premier

 

Ted Baillieu as

Opposition Leader

Brumby as Oppn. Ldr.

Daniel Andrews as

Opposition Leader

 

Nov 23-25,

2010

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Mr. Baillieu

39

48.5

60

53.5

41

42.5

39.5

30

27.5

40

50.5

Mr. Andrews

43.5

25.5

14

22

33.5

36.5

30.5

42

39.5

31.5

30

Baillieu lead

(4.5)

23

46

31.5

7.5

6

9

(12)

(12)

8.5

20.5

Other / Neither

17.5 

26

26

24.5

25.5

21

30

28

33

28.5

19.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Approval of Leaders — Ted Baillieu v Daniel Andrews

Victorian Premier: Ted Baillieu

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Baillieu is handling his job as Victorian Premier?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

John Brumby

as Premier

Ted Baillieu as Premier

 

Nov 23-25,

2010

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Ind/

Other#

Can’t

say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

34

40

50.5

40

29

19

48

8.5

10.5

15

Disapprove

46.5

13

23

38

53.5

65.5

35.5

76

61.5

51.5

Approve

- Disapprove

(12.5)

27

27.5

2

(24.5)

(46.5)

12.5

(67.5)

(51)

(36.5)

Can’t say

19.5

47

26.5

22

17.5

15.5

16.5

15.5

28

33.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

John Brumby

as Premier

Ted Baillieu as Premier

 

Nov 23-25,

2010

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

34

40

50.5

40

29

30.5

28

29.5

16.5

25.5

36.5

Disapprove

46.5

13

23

38

53.5

55

51.5

54.5

64.5

57.5

45.5

Approve

- Disapprove

(12.5)

27

27.5

2

(24.5)

(24.5)

(23.5)

(25)

(48)

(32)

(9)

Can’t say

19.5

47

26.5

22

17.5

14.5

20.5

16

19

17

18

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Opposition Leader: Daniel Andrews

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Andrews is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by State Voting Intention

 

Ted Baillieu as Oppn. Ldr.

Brumby as Oppn. Ldr.

Daniel Andrews as

Opposition Leader

 

Nov 23-25,

2010

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

Apr 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

ALP

L-NP

The

Greens

Ind/

Other#

Can’t

say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

40

30

25

20

28

44

22.5

23.5

10.5

8

Disapprove

39

31

26.5

36

35

24.5

39.5

38

65

18.5

Approve

- Disapprove

1

(1)

(1.5)

(16)

(7)

19.5

(17)

(14.5)

(54.5)

(10.5)

Can’t say

21

39

48.5

44

37

31.5

38

38.5

24.5

73.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

Analysis by Sex and Age

 

Ted Baillieu

as Oppn. Ldr.

Brumby as

Oppn. Ldr.

Daniel Andrews as

Opposition Leader

 

Nov 23-25,

2010

Nov 30 &

Dec 1, 2010

Apr 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

40

30

25

20

28

34

22.5

27.5

17

32.5

30

Disapprove

39

31

26.5

36

35

32

37.5

26

41.5

29

39

Approve

- Disapprove

1

(1)

(1.5)

(16)

(7)

2

(15)

1.5

(24.5)

3.5

(9)

Can’t say

21

39

48.5

44

37

34

40

46.5

41.5

38.5

31

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

VICTORIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Victoria are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

 

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

Nov 16-18,

2010

Nov 22-25,

2010

Nov 30

& Dec 1, 2010

April 5-10,

2011

Mar 20-28,

2012

June 5-13,

2012

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Right direction

49.5

49

52.5

53.5

46

43

Wrong direction

36.5

33.5

25.5

27.5

39

36.5

Roy Morgan GCR*

113

115.5

127

126

107

106.5

Can’t say

14

17.5

22

19

15

20.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”).

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:               Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:          Office (03) 9224 5215       Mobile 0411 129 093        Home (03) 9817 3066

 

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4