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NATIONAL (44%, DOWN 3.5%) LEAD OVER LABOUR (32%, UP 2%) LOWEST SINCE NOVEMBER 2008

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,033 electors from July 23- August 5, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a drop in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party 44% (down 3.5% since July 9-22, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners changed slightly with the Maori Party 2% (up 1%), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour is up 2.% to 32%, Greens are 14% (up 3%), New Zealand First 4% (down 1.5%), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 1.5%).

If a National Election were held today today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll suggests an election result would be ‘too close to call’.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 1pt to 114.5, with 49% (down 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34.5% (down 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National 44% (down 3.5%) now at its lowest level of support since the 2011 New Zealand Election and a lead of only 12% over the main Opposition Labour Party (32%, up 2%) — the closest gap between the two main parties since just after National won Government at the 2008 New Zealand Election (National: 44% cf. Labour: 32.5%).

“A potential Labour/Greens alliance (46%, up 5%) now holds a significant advantage over National (44%) and means if a New Zealand Election were held now it would be ‘too close to call’ and depend on the voting results of minor parties and whether they crossed the 5% threshold to win list seats."

 

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 1,033 electors from July 23- August 5, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 3.5% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.

 

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE

National

Labour

Green

Party

NZ

First

Maori

Party*

Mana

Party

ACT

NZ

United

Future

Conservative

Party

Other

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

General Election, July 27, 2002
20.9 41.3 7 10.4 n/a n/a 7.1 6.7 n/a 6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005
39.1 41.1 5.3 5.72 2.12 n/a 1.51 2.67 n/a 2.48
General Election, November 8, 2008
44.93 33.99 6.72 4.07 2.39 n/a 3.65 0.87 n/a 3.38
General Election, November 26, 2011
47.31 27.48 11.06 6.59 1.43 1.08 1.07 0.60 2.65 0.73

MORGAN POLL

                   
January 3-15, 2012
47 27.5 14.5 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 n/a 2.5
January 16-29, 2012
46 30.5 13 5.5 2 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
January 30 - February 12, 2012
45.5 31 11.5 6 1.5 1 1 0.5 n/a 2
February 13-26, 2012
45.5 31.5 13 5 1.5 1 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
February 27 - March 11, 2012
48.5 30 12.5 5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
March 12 - April 1, 2012
44 30.5 17 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 0.5
April 2-15, 2012
49.5 26.5 12.5 6.5 1.5 1 ^ 1 n/a 1.5
April 16-29, 2012
47 28.5 15 5 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
April 30 - May 13, 2012
44.5 30 15 5.5 1 0.5 ^ 1 n/a 2.5
May 14-27, 2012
44 30.5 13.5 5 2 1 1 0.5 n/a 2.5
May 28 - June 7, 2012
46 31 12.5 5.5 1.5 1 ^ 0.5 n/a 2
June 8-24, 2012
47.5 32 12 4 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 1.5
June 25 - July 8, 2012
45.5 32.5 13 4.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a 2
July 9-22, 2012
47.5 30 11 5.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 3 ^
July 23 - August 5, 2012
44 32 14 4 2 1 0.5 0.5 1.5 0.5

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%.

 

Latest New Zealand Voting Intention - August 2012

 

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - National Party-led Government v Parliamentary Opposition Parties

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE

National Party-led

Government*

Opposition

Parties#

 

%

%

General Election, November 8, 2008
51.84 48.16
General Election, November 26, 2011
50.41 46.21

MORGAN POLL

   
January 3-15, 2012
49.5 48
January 16-29, 2012
49 49.5
January 30 - February 12, 2012
48.5 49.5
February 13-26, 2012
48 50.5
February 27 - March 11, 2012
50.5 48
March 12 - April 1, 2012
46.5 53
April 2-15, 2012
52 46.5
April 16-29, 2012
49.5 49
April 30 - May 13, 2012
46.5 51
May 14-27, 2012
47.5 50
May 28 - June 7, 2012
48 51.5
June 8-24, 2012
50 48.5
June 25 - July 8, 2012
47.5 50.5
July 9-22, 2012
50 47
July 23 - August 5, 2012
47 51
*National-led Government: National Party, Maori Party, ACT NZ, United Future; #Opposition Parties: Labour Party, Green Party, Mana Party, NZ First. Other & Conservative Party not included as they are not represented in Parliament.

 

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates


July 11-24,

2011

July 25-Aug 7,

2011

Aug 15-28,

2011

Aug 29-Sep11,

2011

Sep 12-25,

2011

Sep 26-Oct 9,

2011

Oct 10-23,

2011

Oct 24-Nov 6,

2011

Nov 7-18,

2011

Nov 22-24,

2011

Jan 3-15,

2012

Jan 16-29,

2012


% % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

56.5 57 59 60 61.5 62 61 58.5 60.5 49.5 60.5 61

Wrong direction

29 29 27.5 28 24.5 24.5 24.5 27.5 24 31 28 28

Roy Morgan GCR#

127.5 128 131.5 132 137 137.5 136.5 131 136.5 118.5 132.5 133

Can’t say

14.5 14 13.5 12 14 13.5 14.5 14 15.5 19.5 11.5 11

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates


Jan 30-Feb 12,

2012

Feb 13-26,

2012

Feb 27-Mar 11,

2012

Mar 12-Apr 1,

2012

Apr 2-15,

2012

Apr 16-29,

2012

Apr 30-May 13,

2012

May 14-27,

2012

May 28-Jun 7,

2012

Jun 8-24,

2012

Jun 25-Jul 8,

2012

July 9-22,

2012


% % % % % % % % % % % %

Right direction

57 53.5 52.5 53.5 55.5 55 51 49 48 52 51.5 50

Wrong direction

30 32.5 34 29.5 31 32.5 35.5 38 37.5 34.5 34 36.5

Roy Morgan GCR#

127 121 118.5 124 124.5 122.5 115.5 111 110.5 117.5 117.5 113.5

Can’t say

13 14 13.5 17 13.5 12.5 13.5 13 14.5 13.5 14.5 13.5

TOTAL

100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (Government of John Key): Interviewing Dates


July 23-Aug 5,

2012

                       

%                        

Right direction

49                        

Wrong direction

34.5                        

Roy Morgan GCR#

114.5                        

Can’t say

16.5                        

TOTAL

100                        
#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is
“heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

 

New Zealand GCR

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

 

 

Finding No. 4810 is taken from Computer Report No. 2361

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.