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Visit of Prince Charles Fails to Inspire Australians with Lesser Majority of Australians Now Supporting Monarchy (52%) while Republic Support Rises to 42%

This special Morgan Poll was conducted by telephone last week on the nights of November 27-29, 2012, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 622 Australians.

A falling majority of Australians (52%, down 6% since June 2012) believe Australia should remain a Monarchy while an increasing number of Australians 42% (up 7%) believe Australia should become a Republic with an elected President and 6% (down 1%) are undecided — according to a special Morgan Poll of Australians taken over three nights last week (November 27-29, 2012).

Support for the Monarchy has returned to its level of late 2011, before the beginning of the Queen’s Diamond Jubilee year — which peaked with spectacular celebrations earlier this year in June.

If Prince Charles were to be crowned King more Australians (49%, up 6% since June 2012) would support Australia becoming a Republic compared to 44% (down 4%) who support Australia remaining as a Monarchy, and 7% of Australians can’t say.

Now, if Prince William were to be crowned King, a slight majority of 52%, (down 6% since June 2012) would want to continue with the Monarchy while 41% (up 7%) of Australians would want a Republic with an elected President and 7% of Australians can’t say.

Analysis by voting intention shows more ALP supporters (57%) want a Republic with an elected President compared to 38% who would prefer to continue with the Monarchy. However L-NP supporters clearly favour continuing with the Monarchy (68%) and only 28% want a Republic with an elected President.

Gary Morgan says:

“Prince Charles’ recent ‘flying’ visit to five Australian States and the nation’s capital, Canberra, as part of Queen Elizabeth’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations (60 years since her accession to become Queen) hasn’t helped the image of the Monarchy in Australia with a lesser majority of Australians (52%, down 6% since June 2012) now supporting Australia remaining a Monarchy compared to 42% (up 7%) who want Australia to become a Republic with an elected President while 6% (down 1%) are undecided.

“While L-NP supporters remain strong proponents of continuing with the Monarchy (68%, down 4%) rather than becoming a Republic (28%, up 5%) ALP supporters are now clearly in favour of a Republic (57%, up 9%) compared to 38% (down 9%) that favour retaining the Monarchy.

“Conversely, if Prince Charles were to be crowned King, support for the Monarchy drops to 44% and a greater number of Australians (49%) want a Republic with an elected President. However, if his son Prince William were to be crowned King instead — 52% favour retaining the Monarchy under a future King William compared to 41% that would favour a Republic under that scenario.

This special Morgan Poll was conducted by telephone last week on the nights of November 27-29, 2012, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 622 Australians.

Australians were asked: “In your opinion, should Australia remain a MONARCHY — or become a REPUBLIC with an elected President?” Those who said Monarchy or were undecided were asked: “If Prince Charles were to be crowned King, in your opinion, should Australia remain a MONARCHY — or become a REPUBLIC with an elected President?”

 

Q1. Should Australia remain a Monarchy?

All Australians aged 14 and over were asked: “In your opinion, should Australia remain a MONARCHY — or become a REPUBLIC with an elected President?”

 

Total Respondents

 

Jun

1953*

Oct

1969*

Dec

1975

Apr

1977

Aug

1981

Jan

1983

Jan

1984

Jul

1988

Jul

1991

Mar

1992

Apr

1993

Dec

1993

Nov

1994

Jul

1995

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Monarchy

77

64

61

62

59

60

62

64

56

49

38

48

40

39

Republic

15

24

28

26

28

28

30

29

36

44

52

44

50

49

Undecided

8

12

11

12

13

12

8

7

8

7

10

8

10

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Electors 18+.

 

Total Respondents

Electors

 

Jun

1996

Sep

1997

Dec

1997

Feb

1998

Nov

1999

Apr

2000

Feb

2005

May

2008

Nov

2010

May

2011

Oct

2011

June

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Monarchy

42

37

38

37

38

39

40

42

48

55

52

58

52

52

Republic

47

53

51

52

54

49

51

45

42

34

37

35

42

43

Undecided

11

10

11

11

8

12

9

13

10

11

11

7

6

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Total Electors

Analysis by State

 

Nov

1999

Apr

2000

Feb

2005

May

2008

Nov

2010

May

2011

Oct

2011

June

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

NSW

VIC

QLD

SA

WA

TAS

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Monarchy

39

40

40

42

48

55

51

60

52

52

54

54

53

48

41

Republic

54

49

52

46

42

35

39

34

43

44

40

39

42

45

40

Undecided

7

11

8

12

10

10

10

6

5

4

6

7

5

7

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

 

Total Electors

Electors by Party Voting Intention

 

May

2008

Nov

2010

May

2011

Oct

2011

June

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

Electors

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Monarchy

33

47

55

51

60

52

52

38

68

27

51

28

Republic

56

42

34

39

34

43

43

57

28

63

39

60

Undecided

11

11

11

10

6

5

5

5

4

10

10

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Q2. Should Australia remain a Monarchy if Prince Charles were crowned King?

Respondents who answered ‘Monarchy’ or ‘Undecided’ in Question 1 were then asked: “If Prince Charles were to be crowned King, in your opinion, should Australia remain a MONARCHY - or become a REPUBLIC with an elected President?"

 

Total Respondents

Electors by Party Voting Intention

 

May

2008

Nov

2010

May

2011

Oct

2011

June

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

Electors

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Monarchy

33

41

47

43

48

44

44

32

58

24

43

18

Republic

56

51

45

48

43

49

50

64

36

66

48

60

Undecided

11

8

8

9

9

7

6

4

6

10

9

22

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Q3. Should Australia remain a Monarchy if Prince William were crowned King?

Respondents who then asked: “If Prince William were to be crowned King, in your opinion, should Australia remain a MONARCHY - or become a REPUBLIC with an elected President?"

 

Total Respondents

Electors by Party Voting Intention

 

May

2011

Oct

2011

June

2012

Nov 27-29,

2012

Electors

ALP

L-NP

Greens

Others

Can’t say

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Monarchy

55

53

58

52

52

39

66

30

52

29

Republic

35

39

34

41

42

57

28

59

41

49

Undecided

10

8

8

7

6

4

6

11

7

22

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093