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National falls 4% to 43.5%; Labour Gains 2% to 32.5% Labour, Greens with Minor Parties Would Win Election

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 977 electors from February 25 – March 10, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a large fall in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 43.5% (down 4% since late February). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (down 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).

Support for Labour is 32.5% (up 2%); Greens are 13.5% (up 1%), New Zealand First 5% (up 2%), Mana Party 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).

If a National Election were held today this New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows that Labour and the Greens with some minor Party support would win the Election.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 7.5pts to 114.0 with 51.5% (down 2.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 37.5% (up 5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a significant drop in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National (43.5%, down 4%) as New Zealand’s devastating drought continues — now at its lowest level of support since October 2012. Along with the fall in National’s vote the NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped to 114.0 (down 7.5pts) and the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating has dropped to 114.8 (down 7.2pts).

“The improvement in the Labour vote (32.5%, up 2%) comes after a cabinet reshuffle by Opposition Leader David Shearer, and although Labour remains well behind National, a potential left-wing alliance of Labour/ Greens/ New Zealand First (51%, up 5%) is well placed to form the next New Zealand Government.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 977 electors from February 25 — March 10, 2013. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the November 26, 2011 General Election:

March New Zealand Vote

New Zealand - Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Data tables: