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L-NP lead up slightly over ALP in a week

This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, May 31- June 2, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,276 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 1.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

Last weekend’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP at 55%, up 0.5% over the past week (since May 24-26, 2013) cf. ALP 45% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The L-NP primary vote is 45.5% (now unchanged for the last two weeks) now further ahead of the ALP 31.5% (down 2%). Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (unchanged) and support for Independents/ Others is 13.5% (up 2%).

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention, May 31- June 2, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,276 Australian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rose to 98.5pts (up 1.5pts in a week) with 40% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (down 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Special Morgan Poll on this year’s Local Government Referendum Question

A special online Morgan Poll conducted over the last few days shows a slim majority of Australian electors (53%) say they will vote either yes (23%) or are ‘leaning towards’ voting yes (30%) in this year’s Referendum question which will allow the Federal Government to directly fund Local Government. This compares to 21% that say they will vote no to the question and a further 10% that are ‘leaning towards’ voting no – a total of 31%. An additional 16% are still undecided.

When electors were asked whether equal funding of $11.6 million should be given to the ‘No’ side to explain their case – 55% agreed there should be equal funding for both sides while 25% said no and a further 20% were undecided.

Electors were also asked to explain in their own words “What, if anything, worries you about the Federal Government having more control over funding of Local Government” and “What, if anything, do you like about the Federal Government having more control over funding of Local Government?”

“What worries you about the Federal Government having more control over funding of Local Government?”

“Too much control without local knowledge.”
“Not being able to keep in touch with local issues.”
“Being dictated to against local wishes.”
“A lack of knowledge and understanding of local priorities.”
“Decisions made too far away from local centres.”
“Control being too centralised, not in touch with local needs.”
“Centralisation of power and control.”
“The centralisation of decision-making.”
“There will be a bias towards their electorates and certain areas getting more/ less than they should.”
“Biased preference may become the norm for important decisions.”
“Do not trust the Federal Government with local funding decisions.”
“Certain local areas will miss out on needed funding.”
“I am worried about anything that gives more power to Canberra.”
“It appears to me that Local Government would lose its autonomy.”
“Depending on who the Federal Government is they could influence projects or policies in their favour.”
“Government by remote control is not a good idea. The Federal Government stuffs up enough issues already without getting into the day-by-day life of the community.”

“What do you like about the Federal Government having more control over funding of Local Government?”

“A sensible way of bypassing State Government.”
“Bypasses the often corrupt influences of State Government.”
“I feel we are over-governed and doing this we could lose the State level.”
“The funds don’t get lost at a State level.”
“Getting the money directly to the people who need it instead of it going via the States.”
“I think that State Governments should be abolished.”
“Hopefully the money will be spent more wisely.”
“I think there will be more money for local government to spend in their districts.”
“There will be better money flow.”
“”I think the Federal Government would have more money to give to the States for important issues than the States have at present.”
 “Local Government has a lot of bridges and roads that need fixing.”
“It will mean Local Government doesn’t have to rely on State Government.”
“Should result in more equitable funding of Local Government and lessen problems around key issues.”
“It may lead to a tightening of accountability.”
“More accountability for councils to justify their funding.”
“More scope for Local councils and Government bodies to get works done.”
“Better accountability and more effective funding of programs.”
“Accountability, transparency and reduced corruption.”
“I believe it would limit the dishonesty that is currently rife in Local Government.”
“It should make Local Governments more honest and we may also have better Local Government.”
“It is silly to have double the costs of running a State and Federal Governments. It saves on costs.”
“Local Government bodies will be on a more even playing field against one another.”

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP (55%, up 0.5% in a week) slightly increasing their strong lead over the ALP (45%, down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. The result comes after the proposed electoral reform bill initially agreed by the two major parties was scrapped after a widespread outcry from the community led Opposition Leader Tony Abbott to renege on the initial agreement with Labor. Support for Independents and minor parties has increased to a high 13.5% (up 2%) with support for the Palmer United Party (PUP) at 3% and Katter’s Australian Party (KAP) at 1%.

“A special online Morgan Poll conducted over the weekend shows this year’s Referendum question on whether the Federal Government should be allowed to directly fund Local Government has very little chance of passing with a bare majority of 53% of Australian electors now saying they will either vote yes (23%) or are ‘leaning towards’ voting yes (30%).

“The last time the question on Local Government recognition was put to a referendum in September 1988 the Morgan Poll showed support for the question dropped as Australians learnt more about it. The Morgan Poll showed support for the question was 60% on July 30/31, 1988; 59% on August 6/7, 1988; dropping to 50% on August 20/21, 1988 and only 33.62% of Australians voted yes. A referendum in Australia can only pass if a majority of electors in Australia and a majority of electors in at least four of the six states vote in favour. Only eight referendums of 44 proposed have been passed in Australia’s history (18.2%).”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 4949 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, May 31- June 2, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,276 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed a low 1.5% (up  0.5%) did not name a party.


Morgan Poll Federal Voting Intention - Two-Party Preferred

Roy Morgan GCR

Men

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

May
10-12, 2013

May
17-19, 2013

May
24-26, 2013

May 31
- June 2, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

30

31

31

29.5

L-NP

50 (4)

48 (2.5)

47.5 (3)

47.5 (2.5)

Greens

8

9

9.5

8

Ind. /Other

12

12

12

15

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

41

43.5

43.5

42

L-NP

59

56.5

56.5

58

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

May
10-12, 2013

May
17-19, 2013

May
24-26, 2013

May 31
- June 2, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

33.5

33.5

35.5

33.5

L-NP

43 (3)

43 (2.5)

44 (3)

43.5 (3)

Greens

10.5

11

9.5

11

Ind. /Other

13

12.5

11

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

47

46.5

47.5

47.5

L-NP

53

53.5

52.5

52.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093

Data Tables

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1

Morgan Poll Accuracy - Recent Elections State & Federal (2007 — 2012)

The Morgan Poll has proven to be consistently the most accurate regular poll in recent Australian Elections — including the 2007 Federal Election, 2010 Federal Election, 2010 Victorian State Election & 2012 Queensland State Election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: "I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any 'real' figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from 'reality' (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is 'better' than Morgan's."


The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.