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L-NP 56% lead unchanged in a week over ALP 44%; however Australians do not expect to benefit from Tuesday’s Federal Budget

This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, May 10-12, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,350 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.

Last weekend’s multi-mode weekly Morgan Poll shows support for the L-NP unchanged at 56% over the past week since May 3-5, 2013) cf. ALP 44% (also unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis.

The L-NP primary vote is 46.5% (up 0.5%) well ahead of the ALP 32% (unchanged). Among the minor parties Greens support is 9.5% (up 1%) and Independents/ Others are 12% (down 1.5%).

If a Federal Election were held today the L-NP would win the election easily according to today’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last few days, May 10-12, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,350 Australian electors aged 18+.

With the RBA’s decision to drop interest rates by 0.25% to 2.75% the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating rose to 103pts (up 7pts in a week) with 42% (up 4%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39% (down 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan & this week’s 2013 Federal Budget

A special SMS Morgan Poll conducted over the last few days shows Australian electors do not have high expectations for Treasurer Wayne Swan’s sixth Federal Budget to be delivered tomorrow. An overwhelming majority of Australian electors (84%) believe tomorrow’s Federal Budget will not benefit them and their family compared to only 16% that believe tomorrow’s Federal Budget will.

A separate Morgan Poll asked of online respondents shows a clear majority of Australian electors (54.5%) do not approve of Wayne Swan’s handling of the job as Treasurer compared to only 28% that do approve while 17.5% can’t say.

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision last week to cut Australian interest rates to an all-time low of 2.75% (down 0.25%), online respondents were asked what the RBA should do at its next meeting in early June – 50% of Australian electors believe the RBA should leave interest rates unchanged in June, 26% believe the RBA should cut interest rates, 9% believe the RBA should increase interest rates and 15% can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s Morgan Poll shows no improvement for the Federal Government with the L-NP (56%, unchanged in a week) maintaining a very strong two-party preferred lead over the ALP (44%, unchanged) as Treasurer Wayne Swan prepares to deliver his sixth, and possibly final, Federal Budget on Tuesday night.

“A special Morgan Poll conducted via SMS and online shows Australian electors are not impressed with the Treasurer as a clear majority of Australian electors (54.5%) do not approve of Wayne Swan’s handling of the job as Treasurer compared to just 28% that do approve, while an overwhelming majority of electors (84%) believe tomorrow’s Federal Budget will not benefit them and their family and only 16% believe it will.

“The Government’s decision to release much of the ‘bad news’ prior to tomorrow’s Federal Budget has been seen as a ploy to ensure that when Swan hands down the Federal Budget, the good news is given greater emphasis in the media. However, the Government’s failed promise to deliver a Budget Surplus this year appears to have ‘struck a chord’ in the electorate and provides the Opposition with an easy method to attack the Government’s economic credentials.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Finding No. 4909 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, May 10-12, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,350 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.

Men

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

April
18-21, 2013

April
26-28, 2013

May
3-5, 2013

May
10-12, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

30.5

29

29.5

30

L-NP

48.5(2)

50.5 (2.5)

49.5 (4)

50 (4)

Greens

9.5

9.5

7.5

8

Ind. /Other

11.5

11

13.5

12

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

42.5

39.5

40.5

41

L-NP

57.5

60.5

59.5

59

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

Women

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

April
18-21, 2013

April
26-28, 2013

May
3-5, 2013

May
10-12, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

34.5

31.5

34.5

33.5

L-NP

40 (3)

45 (3.5)

43 (2.5)

43 (3)

Greens

12

12.5

9

10.5

Ind. /Other

13.5

11

13.5

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

48.5

44.5

47

47

L-NP

51.5

55.5

53

53

TOTAL

100

100

100

100


Data Tables

4909

4909


For further information:


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Gary Morgan:     + 61 3 9224 5213 + 61 411 129 094
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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40%-60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
500 ±4.5 ±3.9 ±2.7 ±1.9
1,000 ±3.2 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.4
1,500 ±2.6 ±2.2 ±1.5 ±1.1
2,000 ±2.2 ±1.9 ±1.3 ±1

Morgan Poll Accuracy - Recent Elections State & Federal (2007 — 2012)

The Morgan Poll has proven to be consistently the most accurate regular poll in recent Australian Elections — including the 2007 Federal Election, 2010 Federal Election, 2010 Victorian State Election & 2012 Queensland State Election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: "I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any 'real' figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from 'reality' (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is 'better' than Morgan's."

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The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.