Back To Listing

Rudd has ALP in good position to win Federal Election but L-NP regains some support. ALP 52.5% (down 2%) cf. L-NP 47.5% (up 2%).

Finding No. 5036 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 12-14, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,431 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

This week’s Morgan Poll, the fourth since Kevin Rudd became Prime Minister, shows a significant swing back to the L-NP. However, the ALP 52.5% (down 2% since last week’s multi-mode Morgan Poll of July 5-7, 2013) is still ahead of the L-NP 47.5% (up 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP primary vote is 42% (up 0.5%), just ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41% (up 1.5%).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 7% (down 1.5%) and support for Independents/ Others is 10% (down 0.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 2%.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of Two-Party preferred vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll and Fairfax Nielsen – the Morgan Poll shows a closer result: ALP (51.5%, down 1%) cf. L-NP (48.5%, up 1%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on election day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,431 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved in the last week – up 2.5pts to 109.5 – the highest since mid-March 2013. Now 45% (up 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 35.5% (down 0.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging towards the L-NP this week however Women still clearly favour the ALP (53%, down 4%) cf. L-NP (47%, up 4%) on a two party preferred basis. Men still favour the ALP (51.5%, unchanged) cf. L-NP (48.5%, unchanged).

Gary Morgan says:

“After two weeks of strong swings to the ALP following Kevin Rudd’s return as Prime Minister in late June today’s Morgan Poll shows a swing back to the L-NP (47.5%, up 2% in a week) cf. ALP (52.5%, down 2%).

“Closer analysis of the results shows the swing to the L-NP being driven by Women: L-NP (47%, up 4%) cf. ALP (53%, down 4%) rather than Men: L-NP (48.5%, unchanged) cf. ALP (51.5%, unchanged) and in the States of Queensland: L-NP (50%, up 7%) cf. ALP (50%, down 7%) and New South Wales: L-NP (48.5%, up 3%) cf. ALP (51.5%, down 3%). These are also the States in which the ALP had picked up the biggest swings after the removal of former Prime Minister Julia Gillard.

“Although the initial reaction to the change of Prime Minister has been positive for the Government, today’s result shows the initial impact of Rudd’s return to the Prime Ministership is starting to ‘wear off’. It appears that the result of this year’s Federal Election will be determined during the election campaign the timing of which will be the discretion of the Prime Minister.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Roy Morgan Reactor – Kevin Rudd & Malcolm Turnbull

Two special Roy Morgan Reactor tests last week measured Australians reacting to new Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull.

To view reactions to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd at the National Press Club: Reactor shows PM Rudd can engage L-NP & Green voters as well as traditional ALP voters.

To view reactions to former Liberal Party Leader Malcolm Turnbull on Q&A: Turnbull hits the mark on Q&A.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 15 August 2013).

Finding No. 5036 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 12-14, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,431 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 0.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


Data Tables


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0


ANALYSIS BY SEX

MEN

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38

39.5

39.5

42.5

+3.0

L-NP

45.5 (2)

44 (3.5)

42.5 (3)

42 (3.5)

-0.5

Greens

6.5

5

7

5.5

-1.5

Ind. /Other

10

11.5

11

10

-1.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

47.5

48.5

51.5

51.5

-

L-NP

52.5

51.5

48.5

48.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,093

1,644

1,692

1,622

 

WOMEN

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38

39.5

43

41.5

-1.5

L-NP

41 (3)

37 (3.5)

36.5 (3)

40.5 (2.5)

+4.0

Greens

10.5

11

10

8.5

-1.5

Ind. /Other

10.5

12.5

10.5

9.5

-1.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

51

54

57

53

-4.0

L-NP

49

46

43

47

+4.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,437

1,794

1,829

1,809

 


ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS

CAPITAL CITIES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37

40

42.5

42

-0.5

L-NP

43.5 (1)

40.5 (0.5)

38.5 (1)

41.5 (1)

+3.0

Greens

9

8.5

9.5

8

-1.5

Ind. /Other

10.5

11

9.5

8.5

-1.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49

52

55.5

52.5

-3.0

L-NP

51

48

44.5

47.5

+3.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,615

2,071

2,153

2,090

 

COUNTRY AREAS 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

39.5

38

40.5

42

+1.5

L-NP

43 (5.5)

40.5 (8)

41 (6.5)

40.5 (6)

-0.5

Greens

7.5

8.5

6.5

6

-0.5

Ind. /Other

10

13

12

11.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50

50

52.5

52

-0.5

L-NP

50

50

47.5

48

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

915

1,349

1,357

1,341

 


ANALYSIS BY STATE

NEW SOUTH WALES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37

38.5

41.5

42.5

+1.0

L-NP

45 (3.5)

44.5 (6.5)

41 (4)

42.5 (3.5)

+1.5

Greens

8

7

9

5.5

-3.5

Ind. /Other

10

10

8.5

9.5

+1.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

47.5

48.5

54.5

51.5

-3.0

L-NP

52.5

51.5

45.5

48.5

+3.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

744

992

1,070

1,044

 

 

VICTORIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36

43

42

43.5

+1.5

L-NP

41.5 (1.5)

35 (2)

38 (2.5)

39 (3)

+1.0

Greens

11

10.5

11

9.5

-1.5

Ind. /Other

11.5

11.5

9

8

-1.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49.5

57.5

56.5

55.5

-1.0

L-NP

50.5

42.5

43.5

44.5

+1.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

698

939

928

881

 


QUEENSLAND

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

44

36

46

41.5

-4.5

LNP

42.5

41.5

34

41 (1)

+7.0

Greens

5.5

7.5

5

5.5

+0.5

Ind. /Other

8

15

15

12

-3.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

51.5

49

57

50

-7.0

LNP

48.5

51

43

50

+7.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

487

608

705

643

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

31.5

33

34

34

-

L-NP

52.5 (5)

48 (7)

49.5 (7)

48.5 (7)

-1.0

Greens

8

7.5

7

9

+2.0

Ind. /Other

8

11.5

9.5

8.5

-1.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

41

40.5

44

46

+2.0

L-NP

59

59.5

56

54

-2.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

200

322

271

293

 


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36.5

38.5

33

40.5

+7.5

L-NP

40 (0.5)

41 (0.5)

42

38.5 (0.5)

-3.5

Greens

10.5

10.5

8.5

9

+0.5

Ind. /Other

13

10

16.5

12

-4.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50

53

49.5

51.5

+2.0

L-NP

50

47

50.5

48.5

-2.0

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

200

303

274

296

 

TASMANIA*

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

52

55

40.5

46

+5.5

L-NP

29 (0)

29.5 (0)

42 (1)

37 (0)

-5.0

Greens

9

9

6

6

-

Ind. /Other

10

6.5

11.5

11

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

63

67.5

52

61.5

+9.5

L-NP

37

32.5

48

38.5

-9.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

110

133

150

151

 

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.


ANALYSIS BY AGE

18-24

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June 26, 2013
(Snap SMS)

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42.5

38

42.5

38

-4.5

L-NP

28 (2.5)

30.5 (2)

26 (2.5)

30 (1)

</