Back To Listing

ALP would win Federal Election. ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

Finding No. 5048 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 19-21, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

This week’s Morgan Poll is unchanged. The ALP 52.5% would still win election ahead of the L-NP 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

The ALP primary vote is 41.5% (down 0.5%), just ahead of the L-NP primary vote at 41% (unchanged).

Among the minor parties Greens support is 9% (up 2%) and support for Independents/ Others is 8.5% (down 1.5%) – including within that support for Katter’s Australian Party of 1% and support for the Palmer United Party of 1%.

For the Poll Nerds! Calculation of Two-Party preferred vote is based on how preferences for minor parties are allocated:

The Morgan Poll allocates preferences of minor party voters based on how electors surveyed say they will vote: ALP (52.5%) cf. L-NP (47.5%). When the Morgan Poll allocates preferences by how Australian electors voted at the last Federal election – the method used by Newspoll and Fairfax Nielsen – the Morgan Poll shows a slightly closer result: ALP (52%, up 0.5%) cf. L-NP (48%, down 0.5%).

Although not everyone votes ‘the card’, how the preferences of minor parties are allocated on Election Day will depend on the ‘deals’ that are done by various parties and the ‘cards’.

If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to this weekend’s multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+. The Morgan Poll surveys a significantly larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has improved in the last week – up 5.5pts to 115 – the highest since November 2012 (116.5). Now 48.5% (up 3.5%) say Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 33.5% (down 2%) say Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows Women swinging back to the ALP this week and still clearly favour the ALP (55.5%, up 2.5%) cf. L-NP (44.5%, down 2.5%) on a two party preferred basis. Men are evenly split: ALP 50% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 50% (up 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The Papua New Guinea ‘Solution’ has helped the ALP maintain their winning position and resulted in a 2% increase in support for the Greens.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Contact us to for a free 2-week-trial of our weekly Federal Election Voting Intention report (offer valid till 15 August 2013).

 

Finding No. 5048 - This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last few days via Face-to-Face, Internet and SMS interviewing, July 19-21, 2013 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,572 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 1% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


ANALYSIS BY GENDER

MEN

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

39.5

39.5

42.5

39.5

L-NP

44 (3.5)

42.5 (3)

42 (3.5)

44 (2.5)

Greens

5

7

5.5

7

Ind. /Other

11.5

11

10

9.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

48.5

51.5

51.5

50

L-NP

51.5

48.5

48.5

50

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

WOMEN

PRIMARY VOTE

 

Multi-Mode

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

39.5

43

41.5

43

L-NP

37 (3.5)

36.5 (3)

40.5 (2.5)

38 (3)

Greens

11

10

8.5

10

Ind. /Other

12.5

10.5

9.5

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

ALP

54

57

53

55.5

L-NP

46

43

47

44.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100


ANALYSIS BY CITIES/ REGIONS

CAPITAL CITIES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40

42.5

42

41

-1

L-NP

40.5 (0.5)

38.5 (1)

41.5 (1)

41 (1)

-0.5

Greens

8.5

9.5

8

10.5

+2.5

Ind. /Other

11

9.5

8.5

7.5

-1

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

52

55.5

52.5

53

+0.5

L-NP

48

44.5

47.5

47

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

2,071

2,153

2,090

2,130

 


COUNTRY AREAS 

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38

40.5

42

42.5

+0.5

L-NP

40.5 (8)

41 (6.5)

40.5 (6)

41 (5)

+0.5

Greens

8.5

6.5

6

6.5

+0.5

Ind. /Other

13

12

11.5

10.0

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

50

52.5

52

52

-

L-NP

50

47.5

48

48

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,349

1,357

1,341

1,442

 


ANALYSIS BY STATE

NEW SOUTH WALES

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38.5

41.5

42.5

44

+1.5

L-NP

44.5 (6.5)

41 (4)

42.5 (3.5)

39.5 (3.5)

-3

Greens

7

9

5.5

7

+1.5

Ind. /Other

10

8.5

9.5

9.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

48.5

54.5

51.5

54

+2.5

L-NP

51.5

45.5

48.5

46

-2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

992

1,070

1,044

1,085

 

 

VICTORIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

43

42

43.5

41.5

-2

L-NP

35 (2)

38 (2.5)

39 (3)

39 (2.5)

-

Greens

10.5

11

9.5

13

+3.5

Ind. /Other

11.5

9

8

6.5

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

57.5

56.5

55.5

55

-0.5

L-NP

42.5

43.5

44.5

45

+0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

939

928

881

898

 


QUEENSLAND

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

36

46

41.5

39.5

-2

LNP

41.5

34

41 (1)

45 (1.5)

+4

Greens

7.5

5

5.5

5.5

-

Ind. /Other

15

15

12

10

-2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

49

57

50

48.5

-1.5

LNP

51

43

50

51.5

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

608

705

643

705

 


WESTERN AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

33

34

34

31.5

-2.5

L-NP

48 (7)

49.5 (7)

48.5 (7)

51 (4)

+2.5

Greens

7.5

7

9

9.5

+0.5

Ind. /Other

11.5

9.5

8.5

8

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

40.5

44

46

40

-6

L-NP

59.5

56

54

60

+6

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

322

271

293

334

 


SOUTH AUSTRALIA

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38.5

33

40.5

43.5

+3

L-NP

41 (0.5)

42

38.5 (0.5)

35.5 (1.5)

-3

Greens

10.5

8.5

9

11

+2

Ind. /Other

10

16.5

12

10

-2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

53

49.5

51.5

60.5

+9

L-NP

47

50.5

48.5

39.5

-9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

303

274

296

254

 


TASMANIA*

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

55

40.5

46

36.5

-9.5

L-NP

29.5 (0)

42 (1)

37 (0)

35

-2

Greens

9

6

6

10.5

+4.5

Ind. /Other

6.5

11.5

11

18

+7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

67.5

52

61.5

55

-6.5

L-NP

32.5

48

38.5

45

+6.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

133

150

151

132

 

*Please note. The small sample size in Tasmania means the Tasmanian figures should be treated with a degree of caution on their own. The figures are primarily used as part of a larger sample.


ANALYSIS BY AGE

18-24

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

38

42.5

38

40

+2

L-NP

30.5 (2)

26 (2.5)

30 (1)

35 (2)

+5

Greens

11

15

13

16

+3

Ind. /Other

20.5

16.5

19

9

-10

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

59.5

65

59.5

57

-2.5

L-NP

40.5

35

40.5

43

+2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

265

226

240

257

 

 

25-34

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

40

46.5

45.5

44

-1.5

L-NP

35 (2)

31.5 (2)

34.5 (2)

32.5 (1.5)

-2

Greens

13

10

11.5

13.5

+2

Ind. /Other

12

12

8.5

10

+1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

55

62

58.5

59

+0.5

L-NP

45

38

41.5

41

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

506

485

481

491

 


35-49

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

42

43

44.5

41

-3.5

L-NP

36(2)

37.5 (2)

39 (2.5)

40 (2.5)

+1

Greens

9.5

9.5

6.5

9

+2.5

Ind. /Other

12.5

10

10

10

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

53.5

56.5

55

53

-2

L-NP

46.5

43.5

45

47

+2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

908

912

892

879

 

50-64

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

39

40.5

40

42

+2

L-NP

44.5 (4)

42.5 (4)

45 (3)

42 (2.5)

-3

Greens

7

7.5

6

7.5

+1.5

Ind. /Other

9.5

9.5

9

8.5

-0.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

48.5

51

49.5

52

+2.5

L-NP

51.5

49

50.5

48

-2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

1,013

1,104

1,015

1,143

 


65+

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

37

36.5

40

39

-1

L-NP

51 (6.5)

51 (3.5)

49.5 (4.5)

49.5 (3.5)

-

Greens

3.5

3.5

3.5

4.5

+1

Ind. /Other

8.5

9

7

7

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

45.5

44.5

44.5

47

+2.5

L-NP

54.5

55.5

55.5

53

-2.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

746

794

803

802

 


TOTAL

 

PRIMARY VOTE

 

 

June
28-30, 2013

July
5-7, 2013

July
12-14, 2013

July
19-21, 2013

% Change
this week

 

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

39.5

41.5

42

41.5

-0.5

L-NP

40.5 (3.5)

39.5 (3)

41 (3)

41 (2.5)

-

Greens

8.5

8.5

7

9

+2

Ind. /Other

11.5

10.5

10

8.5

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

 

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED

 

ALP

51.5

54.5

52.5

52.5

-

L-NP

48.5

45.5

47.5

47.5

-

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

 

Sample size

3,438

3,521

3,431

3,572

 



For further information: 

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


Data Tables


Morgan Poll - Two-Party Preferred - July 22, 2013

Roy Morgan GCR


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0